IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ddj/fserec/y2015p17-26.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Relationship Between Romanian Exports And Economic Growth After The Adhesion To European Union

Author

Listed:
  • Ramona Dumitriu

    (”Dunarea de Jos” University of Galati, Romania)

  • Razvan Stefanescu

    (Dunarea de Jos University of Galati, Romania)

Abstract

This paper explores the relationship between the quarterly values of the Romanian exports and of the Gross Domestic Product for the period 2007 – 2014, which was marked by the consequences of the adhesion to European Union and by the global crisis. In this analysis we employ cointegration tests, Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Granger causality techniques. The results indicate no cointegration between the two variables but a causal effect of exports on the Gross Domestic Product.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramona Dumitriu & Razvan Stefanescu, 2015. "The Relationship Between Romanian Exports And Economic Growth After The Adhesion To European Union," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 17-26.
    • Handle: RePEc:ddj:fserec:y:2015:p:17-26
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.rce.feaa.ugal.ro/images/stories/RCE2015/Economie/DumitriuStefanescu.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dani Rodrik, 1988. "Closing the Technology Gap: Does Trade Liberalization Really Help?," NBER Working Papers 2654, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Kravis, Irving B, 1970. "Trade as a Handmaiden of Growth: Similarities between the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 80(323), pages 850-872, December.
    3. Joachim Wagner, 2016. "Exports and Productivity: A Survey of the Evidence from Firm Level Data," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Microeconometrics of International Trade, chapter 1, pages 3-41, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
    5. Michaely, Michael, 1977. "Exports and growth : An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 49-53, February.
    6. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 1992. "Impulse response analysis of cointegrated systems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 53-78, January.
    7. Marin, Dalia, 1992. "Is the Export-Led.Growth Hypothesis Valid for Industrialized Countries?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(4), pages 678-688, November.
    8. Voivodas, Constantin S., 1973. "Exports, foreign capital inflow and economic growth," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 337-349, November.
    9. Jung, Woo S. & Marshall, Peyton J., 1985. "Exports, growth and causality in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-12.
    10. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    11. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2013. "Vector autoregressive models," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 6, pages 139-164, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Hirotugu Akaike, 1969. "Fitting autoregressive models for prediction," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 21(1), pages 243-247, December.
    13. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    14. Sokoloff, Kenneth L., 1984. "Was the transition from the artisanal shop to the nonmechanized factory associated with gains in efficiency?: Evidence from the U.S. Manufacturing censuses of 1820 and 1850," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 351-382, October.
    15. Sofronis K. Clerides & Saul Lach & James R. Tybout, 1998. "Is Learning by Exporting Important? Micro-Dynamic Evidence from Colombia, Mexico, and Morocco," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 903-947.
    16. Elhanan Helpman, 1999. "The Structure of Foreign Trade," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 121-144, Spring.
    17. Thorsten Schank & Claus Schnabel & Joachim Wagner, 2008. "Higher Wages in Exporting Firms: Self-selection, Export Effect, or Both? First Evidence from German Linked Employer-Employee Data," Working Paper Series in Economics 74, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.
    18. Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
    19. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, Decembrie.
    20. Nikolaos Dritsakis & Erotokritos Varelas & Antonios Adamopoulos, 2006. "The Main Determinants of Economic Growth : An Empirical Investigation with Granger Causality Analysis for Greece," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3-4), pages 47-58.
    21. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Razvan & Nistor, Costel, 2010. "Exports as an engine for the economic growth: the case of Romania," MPRA Paper 36581, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Feb 2012.
    22. Krugman, Paul, 1980. "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 950-959, December.
    23. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    24. De loecker, Jan, 2010. "A Note on Detecting Learning by Exporting," CEPR Discussion Papers 8121, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. Stefanescu, Razvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2014. "Investigation on the relationship between Romanian foreign trade and industrial production," MPRA Paper 62547, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    26. Peter Kugler, 1991. "Growth, exports and cointegration: An empirical investigation," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 127(1), pages 73-82, March.
    27. Kenneth L. Sokoloff, 1984. "Was the Transition from the Artisanal Shop to the Factory Associated with Gains in Efficiency?: Evidence from the U.S. Manufacturing Censuses of 1820 and 1850," UCLA Economics Working Papers 300, UCLA Department of Economics.
    28. Bernard, Andrew B. & Bradford Jensen, J., 1999. "Exceptional exporter performance: cause, effect, or both?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-25, February.
    29. Stefanescu, Razvan & Dumitriu, Ramona & Nistor, Costel, 2010. "Evolution of the Romanian exports and imports in the context of the European integration," MPRA Paper 36578, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Feb 2012.
    30. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 101-115, Fall.
    31. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    32. Jaleel Ahmad & Somchai Harnhirun, 1996. "Cointegration and Causality between Exports and Economic Growth: Evidence from the ASEAN Countries," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(s1), pages 413-416, April.
    33. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    34. Bee Yan Aw & Sukkyun Chung & Mark J. Roberts, 1998. "Productivity and the Decision to Export: Micro Evidence from Taiwan and South Korea," NBER Working Papers 6558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Claire Economidou, 2009. "Export led growth vs. growth led exports: LDCs experience," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 42(2), pages 179-212, January-M.
    36. Pop Silaghi, Monica Ioana, 2009. "Exports-Economic Growth Causality: Evidence from CEE Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(2), pages 105-117, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stefanescu, Razvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2014. "Investigation on the relationship between Romanian foreign trade and industrial production," MPRA Paper 62547, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Tarlok Singh, 2010. "Does International Trade Cause Economic Growth? A Survey," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(11), pages 1517-1564, November.
    3. Asmawi Hashim & Norimah Rambeli & Norasibah Abdul Jalil & Normala Zulkifli & Emilda Hashim & Noor Al-Huda Abdul Karim, 2019. "Does Export Led Growth Hypothesis Hold Under World Crisis Recovery Regime in Malaysia?," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 10(5), pages 9-19, December.
    4. Sayef Bakari, 2017. "The Three-Way Linkages Between Export, Import And Economic Growth: New Evidence From Tunisia," Journal of Smart Economic Growth, , vol. 2(3), pages 13-53, December.
    5. Sayef Bakari, 2017. "The Impact of Vegetables Exports on Economic Growth in Tunisia," Economic Research Guardian, Mutascu Publishing, vol. 7(2), pages 72-87, December.
    6. Abhijit Sharma & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2003. "An Analysis of Exports and Growth in India: Some Empirical Evidence (1971-2001)," Working Papers 2003004, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2003.
    7. Sahoo, Auro Kumar & Sahoo, Dukhabandhu & Sahu, Naresh Chandra, 2014. "Mining export, industrial production and economic growth: A cointegration and causality analysis for India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 27-34.
    8. Jim Love & Ramesh Chandra, 2004. "Testing Export‐Led Growth in India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka Using a Multivariate Framework," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(4), pages 483-496, July.
    9. Kalaitzi, Athanasia S. & Chamberlain, Trevor W., 2020. "Merchandise exports and economic growth: multivariate time series analysis for the United Arab Emirates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103781, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Pushpa Trivedi & Narayan Chandra Pradhan, 2010. "Exports and Growth Nexus in India: An Econometric Analysis," Millennial Asia, , vol. 1(1), pages 97-121, January.
    11. Adeel Saleem & Maqbool H. Sial & Ahmed Raza Cheema, 2023. "Does an asymmetric nexus exist between exports and economic growth in Pakistan? Recent evidence from a nonlinear ARDL approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 297-326, February.
    12. Nasim Shah Shirazi & Turkhan Ali Abdul Manap, 2005. "Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: Further Econometric Evidence From South Asia," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 43(4), pages 472-488, December.
    13. Love, Jim & Chandra, Ramesh, 2005. "Testing export-led growth in Bangladesh in a multivarate VAR framework," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 1155-1168, January.
    14. Judith Giles & Cara Williams, 2001. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 2," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 445-470.
    15. Ambreen FATEMAH & Abdul QAYYUM, 2018. "Modeling the impact of exports on the economic growth of Pakistan," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 56-64, March.
    16. repec:aer:wpaper:322 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Vouldis, Angelos T., 2016. "Non performing loans (NPLs) in a crisis economy: Long-run equilibrium analysis with a real time VEC model for Greece (2001–2015)," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 451(C), pages 149-161.
    18. Yifru, Tigist, 2015. "Impact Of Agricultural Exports On Economic Growth In Ethiopia: The Case Of Coffee, Oilseed And Pulses," Research Theses 265676, Collaborative Masters Program in Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    19. Athanasia S. Kalaitzi & Emmanuel Cleeve, 2018. "Export-led growth in the UAE: multivariate causality between primary exports, manufactured exports and economic growth," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 8(3), pages 341-365, September.
    20. Subrata Ghatak & Chris Milner & Utku Utkulu, 1997. "Exports, export composition and growth : cointegration and causality evidence for Malaysia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 213-223.
    21. Judith Giles & Cara Williams, 2001. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 1," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 261-337.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ddj:fserec:y:2015:p:17-26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gianina Mihai (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fegalro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.