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Improving purchasing behavior predictions by data augmentation with situational variables

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  • P. BAECKE
  • D. VAN DEN POEL

Abstract

Nowadays, an increasing number of information technology tools are implemented in order to support decision making about marketing strategies and improve customer relationship management (CRM). Consequently, an improvement in CRM can be obtained by enhancing the databases on which these information technology tools are based. This study shows that data augmentation with situational variables of the purchase occasion can significantly improve purchasing behavior predictions for a home vending company. Three dimensions of situational variables are examined: physical surroundings, temporal perspective and social surroundings respectively represented by weather, time and salesperson variables. The smallest, but still significant, increase in predictive performance was measured by enhancing the model with time variables. Besides the moment of the day, this study shows that the incorporation of weather variables, and more specifically sunshine, can also improve the accuracy of a CRM model. Finally, the best improvement in purchasing behavior predictions was obtained by taking the salesperson effect into account using a multilevel model.

Suggested Citation

  • P. Baecke & D. Van Den Poel, 2010. "Improving purchasing behavior predictions by data augmentation with situational variables," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 10/658, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    • Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:10/658
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. M. Ballings & D. Van Den Poel & E. Verhagen, 2013. "Evaluating the Added Value of Pictorial Data for Customer Churn Prediction," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/869, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    2. P. Baecke & D. Van Den Poel, 2012. "Including Spatial Interdependence in Customer Acquisition Models: a Cross-Category Comparison," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/788, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    3. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel & A. Prinzie, 2011. "Analyzing existing customers’ websites to improve the customer acquisition process as well as the profitability prediction in B-to-B marketing," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 11/733, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    4. Gubela, Robin & Bequé, Artem & Gebert, Fabian & Lessmann, Stefan, 2018. "Conversion uplift in e-commerce: A systematic benchmark of modeling strategies," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2018-062, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    5. Robin Gubela & Artem Bequé & Stefan Lessmann & Fabian Gebert, 2019. "Conversion Uplift in E-Commerce: A Systematic Benchmark of Modeling Strategies," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(03), pages 747-791, May.
    6. Thangeda, Rahul & Kumar, Niraj & Majhi, Ritanjali, 2024. "A neural network-based predictive decision model for customer retention in the telecommunication sector," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    7. M. Ballings & D. Van Den Poel, 2012. "The Relevant Length of Customer Event History for Churn Prediction: How long is long enough?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/804, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    8. P. Baecke & D. Van Den Poel, 2012. "Improving Customer Acquisition Models by Incorporating Spatial Autocorrelation at Different Levels of Granularity," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/819, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.

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