IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rug/rugwps/12-788.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Including Spatial Interdependence in Customer Acquisition Models: a Cross-Category Comparison

Author

Listed:
  • P. BAECKE
  • D. VAN DEN POEL

Abstract

Within analytical customer relationship management (CRM), customer acquisition models suffer the most from a lack of data quality because the information of potential customers is mostly limited to socio-demographic and lifestyle variables obtained from external data vendors. Particularly in this situation, taking advantage of the spatial correlation between customers can improve the predictive performance of these models. This study compares an autoregressive and hierarchical technique that both are able to incorporate spatial information in a model that can be applied on a large dataset, typical for CRM. Predictive performances of these models are compared in an application that identifies potential new customers for 25 products and brands. The results show that when a discrete spatial variable is used to group customers into mutually exclusive neighborhoods, a multilevel model performs at least as well as, and for a large number of durable goods even significantly better than a more often used autologistic model. Further, this application provides interesting insights for marketing decision makers. It indicates that especially for publicly consumed durable goods neighborhood effects can be identified. Though, for the more exclusive brands, incorporating spatial information will not always result in major predictive improvements. For these luxury products, the high spatial interdependence is mainly caused by homophily in which the spatial variable is a substitute for absent socio-demographic and lifestyle variables. As a result, these neighborhood variables lose a lot of predictive value on top of a traditional acquisition model that typically is based on such non-transactional variables.

Suggested Citation

  • P. Baecke & D. Van Den Poel, 2012. "Including Spatial Interdependence in Customer Acquisition Models: a Cross-Category Comparison," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/788, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    • Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:12/788
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://wps-feb.ugent.be/Papers/wp_12_788.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Grinblatt & Matti Keloharju & Seppo Ikäheimo, 2008. "Social Influence and Consumption: Evidence from the Automobile Purchases of Neighbors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 735-753, November.
    2. Bart J. Bronnenberg & Vijay Mahajan, 2001. "Unobserved Retailer Behavior in Multimarket Data: Joint Spatial Dependence in Market Shares and Promotion Variables," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(3), pages 284-299, October.
    3. Philippe Baecke & Dirk Van Den Poel, 2010. "Improving Purchasing Behavior Predictions By Data Augmentation With Situational Variables," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(06), pages 853-872.
    4. D. Thorleuchter & D. Van Den Poel & A. Prinzie, 2011. "Analyzing existing customers’ websites to improve the customer acquisition process as well as the profitability prediction in B-to-B marketing," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 11/733, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    5. Wagner Kamakura & Carl Mela & Asim Ansari & Anand Bodapati & Pete Fader & Raghuram Iyengar & Prasad Naik & Scott Neslin & Baohong Sun & Peter Verhoef & Michel Wedel & Ron Wilcox, 2005. "Choice Models and Customer Relationship Management," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 279-291, December.
    6. Sangkil Moon & Gary J. Russell, 2008. "Predicting Product Purchase from Inferred Customer Similarity: An Autologistic Model Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(1), pages 71-82, January.
    7. Coussement, Kristof & Benoit, Dries Frederik & Van den Poel, Dirk, 2009. "Improved Marketing Decision Making in a Customer Churn Prediction Context Using Generalized Additive Models," Working Papers 2009/18, Hogeschool-Universiteit Brussel, Faculteit Economie en Management.
    8. Kuenzel, Johanna & Musters, Pieter, 2007. "Social interaction and low involvement products," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 876-883, August.
    9. P. Baecke & D. Van Den Poel, 2009. "Data Augmentation by Predicting Spending Pleasure Using Commercially Available External Data," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 09/596, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    10. Bearden, William O & Etzel, Michael J, 1982. "Reference Group Influence on Product and Brand Purchase Decisions," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 9(2), pages 183-194, September.
    11. David Bell & Sangyoung Song, 2007. "Neighborhood effects and trial on the internet: Evidence from online grocery retailing," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 361-400, December.
    12. Bart J. Bronnenberg, 2005. "Spatial models in marketing research and practice," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(4‐5), pages 335-343, July.
    13. Anselin, Luc, 2002. "Under the hood : Issues in the specification and interpretation of spatial regression models," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 247-267, November.
    14. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1998_10n1_0071 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Eric Bradlow & Bart Bronnenberg & Gary Russell & Neeraj Arora & David Bell & Sri Duvvuri & Frankel Hofstede & Catarina Sismeiro & Raphael Thomadsen & Sha Yang, 2005. "Spatial Models in Marketing," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 267-278, December.
    16. Thomas J. Steenburgh & Andrew Ainslie & Peder Hans Engebretson, 2003. "Massively Categorical Variables: Revealing the Information in Zip Codes," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(1), pages 40-57, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. M. Ballings & D. Van Den Poel & E. Verhagen, 2013. "Evaluating the Added Value of Pictorial Data for Customer Churn Prediction," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/869, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    2. M. Ballings & D. Van Den Poel, 2012. "Kernel Factory: An Ensemble of Kernel Machines," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/825, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    3. P. Baecke & D. Van Den Poel, 2012. "Improving Customer Acquisition Models by Incorporating Spatial Autocorrelation at Different Levels of Granularity," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/819, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. P. Baecke & D. Van Den Poel, 2012. "Improving Customer Acquisition Models by Incorporating Spatial Autocorrelation at Different Levels of Granularity," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/819, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    2. M. Ballings & D. Van Den Poel & E. Verhagen, 2013. "Evaluating the Added Value of Pictorial Data for Customer Churn Prediction," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/869, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    3. M. Ballings & D. Van Den Poel, 2012. "The Relevant Length of Customer Event History for Churn Prediction: How long is long enough?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 12/804, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    4. Kim, Sunghoon & DeSarbo, Wayne S. & Chang, Won, 2021. "Note: A new approach to the modeling of spatially dependent and heterogeneous geographical regions," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 792-803.
    5. Liu, Zhuping & Duan, Jason A & Mahajan, Vijay, 2020. "Dynamics and peer effects of brand revenue in college sports," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 756-771.
    6. Moon, Sangkil & Jalali, Nima & Song, Reo, 2022. "Green-lighting scripts in the movie pre-production stage: An application of consumption experience carryover theory," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 332-345.
    7. V Kumar & Amalesh Sharma & Shaphali Gupta, 2017. "Accessing the influence of strategic marketing research on generating impact: moderating roles of models, journals, and estimation approaches," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 164-185, March.
    8. Philippe Baecke & Dirk Van Den Poel, 2010. "Improving Purchasing Behavior Predictions By Data Augmentation With Situational Variables," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(06), pages 853-872.
    9. Jing Wang & Anocha Aribarg & Yves F. Atchadé, 2013. "Modeling Choice Interdependence in a Social Network," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(6), pages 977-997, November.
    10. J. D’Haen & D. Van Den Poel, 2013. "Model-supported business-to-business prospect prediction based on an iterative customer acquisition framework," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 13/863, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    11. Vincent Nijs & Kanishka Misra & Eric T. Anderson & Karsten Hansen & Lakshman Krishnamurthi, 2010. "Channel Pass-Through of Trade Promotions," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(2), pages 250-267, 03-04.
    12. Moon, Sangkil & Azizi, Kathryn, 2013. "Finding Donors by Relationship Fundraising," Journal of Interactive Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 112-129.
    13. Paik, Jane & Ying, Zhiliang, 2012. "A composite likelihood approach for spatially correlated survival data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 209-216, January.
    14. Jeonghye Choi & David R. Bell & Leonard M. Lodish, 2012. "Traditional and IS-Enabled Customer Acquisition on the Internet," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(4), pages 754-769, April.
    15. Yan Chen & Youran Qi & Qing Liu & Peter Chien, 2018. "Sequential sampling enhanced composite likelihood approach to estimation of social intercorrelations in large-scale networks," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 409-440, December.
    16. Vishal Narayan & Vithala R. Rao & Carolyne Saunders, 2011. "How Peer Influence Affects Attribute Preferences: A Bayesian Updating Mechanism," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(2), pages 368-384, 03-04.
    17. Bhukya, Ramulu & Paul, Justin, 2023. "Social influence research in consumer behavior: What we learned and what we need to learn? – A hybrid systematic literature review," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    18. Curatola, Giuliano, 2017. "Portfolio choice and asset prices when preferences are interdependent," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 197-223.
    19. Peters, Kay & Albers, Sönke & Kumar, V., 2008. "Is there more to international Diffusion than Culture? An investigation on the Role of Marketing and Industry Variables," EconStor Preprints 27678, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    20. Jurui Zhang & Yong Liu & Yubo Chen, 2015. "Social Learning in Networks of Friends versus Strangers," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(4), pages 573-589, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:12/788. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Nathalie Verhaeghe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ferugbe.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.