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Experience in Analysis and Forecasting of Cyclical Fluctuations in the Economy (On the Example of the National Bureau of Economic Research in Application to the Economy and the Anti-Crisis Policy of Russia)
[Опыт Анализа И Прогнозирования Циклических Колебаний В Экономике (На Примере Национального Бюро Экономических Иссле-Дований Сша В Приложении К Экономике И Антикризисной Политике России)]

Author

Listed:
  • Airapetyan, Mamikon (Айрапетян, Мамикон)

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))

  • Aleschenko, Natalya (Алещенко, Наталья)

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))

  • Arushanyan, Vitaliy (Арушанян, Виталий)

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))

Abstract

The development of the global and national economies, including the economies of Russia, held in the framework of large - 34-year-old infrastructure, small - a 4.3-year business and midget - 6-month tactical global economic cycles. World economy and country, including the Russian economy, including sectors, industries and enterprises exist simultaneously in the same rhythm and mode of global economic development - '200-year cyclical waves". In a stand-alone assessment tacos th development are distorted and do not reflect an adequate picture of the economic re-majoring, and therefore can not form the basis of the analysis and forecasting of the development. At the turn of XIX-XX centuries. It adds two simultaneous and large areas of "experience analysis and forecasting cyclical fluctuations in the economy." The first direction is represented institutionally NBER since 1920, which led to the domination of the American school in the world of business cycles, systems analysis and forecasting of the economy. Second - Russian - the direction has no institutional representation, although represented by such large - world-renowned scientists in the field of studies of economic cycles and crises, as M. Tugan-Baranowski, Bunyatyan M. and N. Kondratiev. This situation requires a radical revision aimed at "legalization" of this trend in the Russian and world economic thought in the theory and practice of public administration. This study developed a methodological model of the global economic - cycle infrastructure, the application of which will effectively analyse and predict cyclical fluctuations, to conduct an adequate anti-crisising policies. Experience in analysis and forecasting of cyclical fluctuations in the economy (for example, the National Bureau of Economic Research in the annex to the economy and the anti-crisis policy of Russia).

Suggested Citation

  • Airapetyan, Mamikon (Айрапетян, Мамикон) & Aleschenko, Natalya (Алещенко, Наталья) & Arushanyan, Vitaliy (Арушанян, Виталий), 2015. "Experience in Analysis and Forecasting of Cyclical Fluctuations in the Economy (On the Example of the National Bureau of Economic Research in Application to the Economy and the Anti-Crisis Policy of R," Published Papers madd5, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    • Handle: RePEc:rnp:ppaper:madd5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Adrian, Tobias & Boyarchenko, Nina & Shachar, Or, 2017. "Dealer balance sheets and bond liquidity provision," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 92-109.

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    Keywords

    global economic cycles; 200-year cyclical waves;

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