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Ekonometryczne modelowanie i prognozowanie rozwoju polskiego sektora ICT z uwzględnieniem wskaźników makroekonomicznych

Author

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  • Paweł Kaczmarczyk

    (The State University of Applied Sciences in Płock)

Abstract

Celem artykułu jest analiza rozwoju polskiego sektora ICT w latach 2007–2014. W części teoretycznej zaprezentowano dotychczasową ewolucję obowiązującego pojęcia i stosowanej klasyfikacji sektora ICT według NACE w UE oraz PKD w Polsce. Opisano również znaczenie sektora ICT dla kształtowania gospodarki opartej na wiedzy i rozwoju społeczno-gospodarczego. W części empirycznej przedstawiono ekonometryczną analizę przychodów netto ze sprzedaży w polskim sektorze ICT w latach 2007–2014. Wykorzystano dane roczne, które są dostępne w publikacjach GUS. Zdefiniowano 19 potencjalnych zmiennych objaśniających. Spośród testowanych modeli ostatecznie wybrano te, które były najlepiej dopasowane do danych i które umożliwiły również uzyskanie najniższych błędów ex ante dotyczących prognoz przychodów netto ze sprzedaży w sektorze ICT do 2017 r.

Suggested Citation

  • Paweł Kaczmarczyk, 2017. "Ekonometryczne modelowanie i prognozowanie rozwoju polskiego sektora ICT z uwzględnieniem wskaźników makroekonomicznych," Collegium of Economic Analysis Annals, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, issue 45, pages 259-272.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgh:annals:i:45:y:2017:p:259-272
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David F. Hendry & Bent Nielsen, 2007. "Preface to Econometric Modeling: A Likelihood Approach," Introductory Chapters, in: Econometric Modeling: A Likelihood Approach, Princeton University Press.
    2. Cambini, Carlo & Jiang, Yanyan, 0. "Broadband investment and regulation: A literature review," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(10-11), pages 559-574, November.
    3. David F. Hendry & Bent Nielsen, 2007. "The Bernoulli model, from Econometric Modeling: A Likelihood Approach," Introductory Chapters, in: Econometric Modeling: A Likelihood Approach, Princeton University Press.
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    Cited by:

    1. Airapetyan, Mamikon (Айрапетян, Мамикон) & Aleschenko, Natalya (Алещенко, Наталья) & Arushanyan, Vitaliy (Арушанян, Виталий), 2015. "Experience in Analysis and Forecasting of Cyclical Fluctuations in the Economy (On the Example of the National Bureau of Economic Research in Application to the Economy and the Anti-Crisis Policy of R," Published Papers madd5, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.

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