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On the exposure of the BRIC countries to global economic shocks

Author

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  • Ansgar Belke
  • Christian Dreger
  • Irina Dubova

Abstract

The financial crisis led to a deep recession in many industrial countries. However, the downturn in large emerging markets turned out to be less persistent. Despite the modest recovery in advanced economies, GDP growth declined in emerging markets in the last years. The higher divergence of business cycles is closely linked to the Chinese transformation. During the crisis, the Chinese fiscal stimulus prevented a decline in GDP growth not only in that country, but also in resource-rich economies. The Chinese shift to consumption-driven growth led to a decline in commodity demand, and the environment became more challenging for many emerging markets. This view is supported by Bayesian VARs specified for the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) countries. The results reveal a strong impact of international variables on GDP growth. In contrast to the other countries, China plays a crucial role in de-termining global trade and oil prices. Hence, the change in the Chinese growth strategy puts additional reform pressure on countries with abundant natural resources.

Suggested Citation

  • Ansgar Belke & Christian Dreger & Irina Dubova, 2016. "On the exposure of the BRIC countries to global economic shocks," ROME Working Papers 201605, ROME Network.
    • Handle: RePEc:rmn:wpaper:201605
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    Cited by:

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    2. Bennani, Hamza, 2019. "Does People's Bank of China communication matter? Evidence from stock market reaction," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 1-1.
    3. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2022. "Global financial risk, the risk-taking channel, and monetary policy in emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    4. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2021. "The slowdown in trade: end of the “globalisation hype” and a return to normal?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(2), pages 225-239, April.
    5. Velásquez, Jorge Sepúlveda & Griñen, Pablo Tapia & Henríquez, Boris Pastén, 2022. "Emerging market dynamics in H1N1 and COVID-19 pandemics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    6. Olayinka Oyekola & David Meenagh & Patrick Minford, 2023. "Global Shocks in the US Economy: Effects on Output and the Real Exchange Rate," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 411-435, April.
    7. Murach, Michael & Wagner, Helmut, 2019. "The effects of external shocks on the business cycle in China: A structural change perspective," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 1/2016, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS), revised 2019.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business cycle divergence; Chinese transformation; Bayesian VARs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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