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Potential Growth in Emerging Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Rahul Anand
  • Mr. Kevin C Cheng
  • Sidra Rehman
  • Ms. Longmei Zhang

Abstract

Using three distinct approaches—statistical filtering, production function, and multivariate model— this paper estimates potential growth for China, India, and five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) during 1993–2013. The main findings include: (i) both China and India have recently exhibited a slowdown in potential growth, largely reflecting a decline of total factor productivity (TFP) growth; (ii) by contrast, trend growth for the five ASEAN countries has been rather stable and might even have increased marginally, with the notable exception of Vietnam;(iii) over the longer term, demographic factors will be much more supportive in India and some ASEAN economies than in China, where working-age population should start shrinking, with the overall dependency ratio climbing by the end of this decade. Improving or sustaining potential growth calls for broad structural reforms.

Suggested Citation

  • Rahul Anand & Mr. Kevin C Cheng & Sidra Rehman & Ms. Longmei Zhang, 2014. "Potential Growth in Emerging Asia," IMF Working Papers 2014/002, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2014/002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ms. Ghada Fayad & Mr. Roberto Perrelli, 2014. "Growth Surprises and Synchronized Slowdowns in Emerging Markets––An Empirical Investigation," IMF Working Papers 2014/173, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Geraldine Dany-Knedlik & Juan Angel Garcia, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1755, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Olesia Kozlova & Jose Noguera-Santaella, 2019. "Are Asian Dragons and Tigers catching up?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 589-601, August.
    4. Pankaj Kumar & Naveen Srinivasan, 2014. "Unravelling India’s Inflation Puzzle," Working Papers 2014-085, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    5. Ansgar Belke & Christian Dreger & Irina Dubova, 2019. "On the exposure of the BRIC countries to global economic shocks," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 122-142, January.
    6. Döhrn, Roland & an de Meulen, Philipp & Grozea-Helmenstein, Daniela & Rujin, Svetlana & Schmidt, Torsten & Zwick, Lina, 2014. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Stärkere Belebung der Weltkonjunktur," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 65(1), pages 5-36.
    7. Pitterle, Ingo & Haufler, Fabio & Hong, Pingfan, 2015. "Assessing emerging markets’ vulnerability to financial crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 484-500.
    8. Murach, Michael & Wagner, Helmut, 2019. "The effects of external shocks on the business cycle in China: A structural change perspective," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 1/2016, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS), revised 2019.
    9. Sampriti Das & Amiya Sarma, 2021. "Growth Behaviour of India’s Export of Services, 1975–2018," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 56(3), pages 301-321, August.
    10. Sibabrata Das & Mukti Upadhyay, 2019. "Growth of Real GDP and Total Factor Productivity in Asia with an Emphasis on Malaysian Growth," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 47(4), pages 391-413, December.
    11. Barendra Kumar Bhoi & Harendra Kumar Behera, 2017. "India’s Potential Output Revisited," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 15(1), pages 101-120, March.
    12. Michael Murach & Helmut Wagner, 2021. "The effects of external shocks on the business cycle in China: A structural change perspective," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 681-702, August.
    13. Enrica Di Stefano & Daniela Marconi, 2015. "Assessing potential growth in emerging countries after the global financial crisis," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 256, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. M. Albert & C. Jude & C. Rebillard, 2015. "The Long Landing Scenario: Rebalancing from Overinvestment and Excessive Credit Growth. Implications for Potential Growth in China," Working papers 572, Banque de France.
    15. Kikuchi, Tomoo & Yanagida, Kensuke & Vo, Huong, 2018. "The effects of Mega-Regional Trade Agreements on Vietnam," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 4-19.
    16. Bofinger, Peter & Schnabel, Isabel & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2014. "Mehr Vertrauen in Marktprozesse. Jahresgutachten 2014/15 [More confidence in market processes. Annual Report 2014/15]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201415, September.
    17. Ms. Evridiki Tsounta, 2014. "Slowdown in Emerging Markets: Sign of a Bumpy Road Ahead?," IMF Working Papers 2014/205, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Arita, Shawn & Dyck, John, 2014. "Vietnam's Agri-food Sector and the Trans-Pacific Partnership," Economic Information Bulletin 188428, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    19. Roland Döhrn & Philipp an de Meulen & Daniela Grozea-Helmenstein & Svetlana Rujin & Torsten Schmidt & Lina Zwick, 2014. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Stärkere Belebung der Weltkonjunktur," RWI Konjunkturbericht, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, pages 32, 03.
    20. Nur Ain Shahrier & Chuah Lay Lian, 2019. "Estimating Malaysia’S Output Gap: Have We Closed The Gap?," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(03), pages 647-674, June.
    21. Ionela VOINEA, 2019. "The role of Japan in the development of emerging markets in Asia. Key lessons learned for China," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(619), S), pages 47-62, Summer.

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