Growth Surprises and Synchronized Slowdowns in Emerging Markets––An Empirical Investigation
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
References listed on IDEAS
- Aiyar, Shekhar & Duval, Romain & Puy, Damien & Wu, Yiqun & Zhang, Longmei, 2018.
"Growth slowdowns and the middle-income trap,"
Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 22-37.
- Mr. Shekhar Aiyar & Mr. Romain A Duval & Mr. Damien Puy & Mr. Yiqun Wu & Ms. Longmei Zhang, 2013. "Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap," IMF Working Papers 2013/071, International Monetary Fund.
- Mr. Roberto Perrelli & Mr. Shaun K. Roache, 2014. "Time-Varying Neutral Interest Rate—The Case of Brazil," IMF Working Papers 2014/084, International Monetary Fund.
- Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012.
"Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion,"
NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 63-98,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2011. "Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion," NBER Working Papers 17447, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Auerbach, Alan J. & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy, 2017.
"Fiscal multipliers in Japan,"
Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 411-421.
- Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2014. "Fiscal Multipliers in Japan," NBER Working Papers 19911, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Loungani, Prakash & Stekler, Herman & Tamirisa, Natalia, 2013.
"Information rigidity in growth forecasts: Some cross-country evidence,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 605-621.
- Ms. Natalia T. Tamirisa & Mr. Prakash Loungani & Mr. Herman O. Stekler, 2011. "Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts: Some Cross-Country Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2011/125, International Monetary Fund.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Daniel Leigh, 2013.
"Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 117-120, May.
- Mr. Olivier J Blanchard & Mr. Daniel Leigh, 2013. "Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers," IMF Working Papers 2013/001, International Monetary Fund.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Daniel Leigh, 2013. "Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers," NBER Working Papers 18779, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Susanto Basu & John Fernald, 2001.
"Why Is Productivity Procyclical? Why Do We Care?,"
NBER Chapters, in: New Developments in Productivity Analysis, pages 225-302,
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald, 1999. "Why is productivity procyclical? Why do we care?," International Finance Discussion Papers 638, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Susanto Basu & John Fernald, 2000. "Why Is Productivity Procyclical? Why Do We Care?," NBER Working Papers 7940, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald, 2000. "Why is productivity procyclical? Why do we care?," Working Paper Series WP-00-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Rahul Anand & Kevin C Cheng & Sidra Rehman & Longmei Zhang, 2014. "Potential Growth in Emerging Asia," IMF Working Papers 14/02, International Monetary Fund.
- Ms. Anja Baum & Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro & Miss Anke Weber, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers and the State of the Economy," IMF Working Papers 2012/286, International Monetary Fund.
- Stijn Claessens, 2010. "The Financial Crisis," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 4(2), pages 177-196, May.
- Anders Aslund, 2013. "Why Growth in Emerging Economies Is Likely to Fall," Working Paper Series WP13-10, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Tsangarides, Charalambos G., 2012. "Crisis and recovery: Role of the exchange rate regime in emerging market economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 470-488.
- Mr. Sebastian Sosa & Ms. Evridiki Tsounta & Miss Marie S Kim, 2013. "Is the Growth Momentum in Latin America Sustainable?," IMF Working Papers 2013/109, International Monetary Fund.
- Stijn Claessens & Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven, 2010. "Cross-country experiences and policy implications from the global financial crisis [From Great Depression to Great Credit Crisis: Similarities, differences and lessons]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 25(62), pages 267-293.
- Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Federico Sturzenegger, 2003. "To Float or to Fix: Evidence on the Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1173-1193, September.
- Luis M. Cubeddu & Alexander Culiuc & Ghada Fayad & Yuan Gao & Kalpana Kochhar & Annette J Kyobe & Ceyda Oner & Roberto Perrelli & Sarah Sanya & Evridiki Tsounta & Zhongxia Zhang, 2014. "Emerging Markets in Transition; Growth Prospects and Challenges," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 14/6, International Monetary Fund.
- Rahul Anand & Mr. Kevin C Cheng & Sidra Rehman & Ms. Longmei Zhang, 2014. "Potential Growth in Emerging Asia," IMF Working Papers 2014/002, International Monetary Fund.
- Olivier J. Blanchard & Mitali Das & Hamid Faruqee, 2010. "The Initial Impact of the Crisis on Emerging Market Countries," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 263-323.
- Rahul Anand & Kevin C Cheng & Sidra Rehman & Longmei Zhang, 2014. "Potential Growth in Emerging Asia," IMF Working Papers 2014/02, International Monetary Fund.
- Didier, Tatiana & Hevia, Constantino & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2012. "How resilient and countercyclical were emerging economies during the global financial crisis?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2052-2077.
- Ms. Evridiki Tsounta, 2014. "Slowdown in Emerging Markets: Sign of a Bumpy Road Ahead?," IMF Working Papers 2014/205, International Monetary Fund.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Ansgar Belke & Christian Dreger & Irina Dubova, 2019.
"On the exposure of the BRIC countries to global economic shocks,"
The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 122-142, January.
- Ansgar Belke & Christian Dreger & Irina Dubova, 2016. "On the Exposure of the BRIC Countries to Global Economic Shocks," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1594, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Belke, Ansgar & Dreger, Christian & Dubova, Irina, 2017. "On the exposure of the BRIC countries to global economic shocks," GLO Discussion Paper Series 37, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
- Belke, Ansgar & Dreger, Christian & Dubova, Irina, 2016. "On the exposure of the BRIC countries to global economic shocks," Ruhr Economic Papers 622, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
- Ansgar Belke & Christian Dreger & Irina Dubova, 2016. "On the exposure of the BRIC countries to global economic shocks," ROME Working Papers 201605, ROME Network.
- Belke, Ansgar & Dreger, Christian & Dubova, Irina, 2017. "On the exposure of the BRIC countries to global economic shocks," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168110, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Belke, Ansgar H. & Dreger, Christian & Dubova, Irina, 2017. "On the Exposure of the BRIC Countries to Global Economic Shocks," IZA Discussion Papers 10634, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Pitterle, Ingo & Haufler, Fabio & Hong, Pingfan, 2015. "Assessing emerging markets’ vulnerability to financial crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 484-500.
- Murach, Michael & Wagner, Helmut, 2019. "The effects of external shocks on the business cycle in China: A structural change perspective," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 1/2016, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS), revised 2019.
- Michael Murach & Helmut Wagner, 2021. "The effects of external shocks on the business cycle in China: A structural change perspective," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 681-702, August.
- Ms. Evridiki Tsounta, 2014. "Slowdown in Emerging Markets: Sign of a Bumpy Road Ahead?," IMF Working Papers 2014/205, International Monetary Fund.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Ansgar Belke & Christian Dreger & Irina Dubova, 2019.
"On the exposure of the BRIC countries to global economic shocks,"
The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 122-142, January.
- Belke, Ansgar & Dreger, Christian & Dubova, Irina, 2016. "On the exposure of the BRIC countries to global economic shocks," Ruhr Economic Papers 622, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
- Belke, Ansgar & Dreger, Christian & Dubova, Irina, 2017. "On the exposure of the BRIC countries to global economic shocks," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168110, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Ansgar Belke & Christian Dreger & Irina Dubova, 2016. "On the Exposure of the BRIC Countries to Global Economic Shocks," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1594, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Belke, Ansgar H. & Dreger, Christian & Dubova, Irina, 2017. "On the Exposure of the BRIC Countries to Global Economic Shocks," IZA Discussion Papers 10634, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Belke, Ansgar & Dreger, Christian & Dubova, Irina, 2017. "On the exposure of the BRIC countries to global economic shocks," GLO Discussion Paper Series 37, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
- Ansgar Belke & Christian Dreger & Irina Dubova, 2016. "On the exposure of the BRIC countries to global economic shocks," ROME Working Papers 201605, ROME Network.
- Murach, Michael & Wagner, Helmut, 2019. "The effects of external shocks on the business cycle in China: A structural change perspective," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 1/2016, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS), revised 2019.
- Pitterle, Ingo & Haufler, Fabio & Hong, Pingfan, 2015. "Assessing emerging markets’ vulnerability to financial crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 484-500.
- Michael Murach & Helmut Wagner, 2021. "The effects of external shocks on the business cycle in China: A structural change perspective," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 681-702, August.
- Ms. Evridiki Tsounta, 2014. "Slowdown in Emerging Markets: Sign of a Bumpy Road Ahead?," IMF Working Papers 2014/205, International Monetary Fund.
- Enrica Di Stefano & Daniela Marconi, 2015. "Assessing potential growth in emerging countries after the global financial crisis," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 256, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Olesia Kozlova & Jose Noguera-Santaella, 2019. "Are Asian Dragons and Tigers catching up?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 589-601, August.
- M. Albert & C. Jude & C. Rebillard, 2015. "The Long Landing Scenario: Rebalancing from Overinvestment and Excessive Credit Growth. Implications for Potential Growth in China," Working papers 572, Banque de France.
- Grigoli, Francesco & Herman, Alexander & Swiston, Andrew, 2019. "A crude shock: Explaining the short-run impact of the 2014–16 oil price decline across exporters," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 481-493.
- Achim Truger, 2015. "Implementing the golden rule for public investment in Europe," Working Paper Reihe der AK Wien - Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 138, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik.
- Alexandra Born & Zeno Enders, 2019.
"Global Banking, Trade, and the International Transmission of the Great Recession,"
The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(623), pages 2691-2721.
- Enders, Zeno & Peter, Alexandra, 2015. "Global Banking, Trade, and the International Transmission of the Great Recession," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113022, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Alexandra Born & Zeno Enders, 2018. "Global Banking, Trade, and the International Transmission of the Great Recession," CESifo Working Paper Series 6912, CESifo.
- Didier, Tatiana & Hevia, Constantino & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2011. "How resilient and countercyclical were emerging economies to the global financial crisis ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5637, The World Bank.
- Alejandro López-Vera & Andrés D. Pinchao-Rosero & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño, 2018.
"Non-Linear Fiscal Multipliers for Public Expenditure and Tax Revenue in Colombia,"
Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 36(85), pages 48-64, April.
- Alejandro López-Vera & Andrés D. Pinchao-Rosero & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño, 2018. "Non-Linear Fiscal Multipliers for Public Expenditure and Tax Revenue in Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 36(85), pages 48-64, November.
- repec:cfe:wpcefa:2014_07 is not listed on IDEAS
- Bohl, Martin T. & Michaelis, Philip & Siklos, Pierre L., 2016. "Austerity and recovery: Exchange rate regime choice, economic growth, and financial crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 195-207.
- Wilms, Philip & Swank, Job & de Haan, Jakob, 2018.
"Determinants of the real impact of banking crises: A review and new evidence,"
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 54-70.
- Philip Wilms & Job Swank & Jakob de Haan, 2014. "Determinants of the real impact of banking crises: A review and new evidence," DNB Working Papers 437, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Sukanya Bose & N.R. Bhanumurthy, 2015.
"Fiscal Multipliers for India,"
Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 9(4), pages 379-401, November.
- Bose, Sukanya & Bhanumurthy, N.R., 2013. "Fiscal Multipliers for India," Working Papers 13/125, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
- Geraldine Dany-Knedlik & Juan Angel Garcia, 2018.
"Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies,"
IMF Working Papers
2018/147, International Monetary Fund.
- Geraldine Dany-Knedlik & Juan Angel Garcia, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1755, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Rose, Andrew K. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2011.
"Cross-country causes and consequences of the crisis: An update,"
European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 309-324, April.
- Rose, Andrew & Spiegel, Mark, 2010. "Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the Crisis: An Update," CEPR Discussion Papers 7901, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2011. "Cross-country causes and consequences of the crisis: an update," Working Paper Series 2011-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Andrew K. Rose & Mark M. Spiegel, 2010. "Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the Crisis: An Update," NBER Working Papers 16243, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Döhrn, Roland & an de Meulen, Philipp & Grozea-Helmenstein, Daniela & Rujin, Svetlana & Schmidt, Torsten & Zwick, Lina, 2014. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Stärkere Belebung der Weltkonjunktur," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 65(1), pages 5-36.
- Zhang, Lu & Uluc, Arzu & Bezemer, Dirk, 2017. "Did pre-crisis mortgage lending limit post-crisis corporate lending? Evidence from UK bank balance sheets," Bank of England working papers 651, Bank of England.
More about this item
Keywords
WP; financial crisis; fiscal policy; Emerging market; growth surprises; growth deceleration; trading partners’ demand; growth surprise; trading partners; emerging market economy; EM Europe; growth slowdown; EM recovery; debt profile; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Output gap; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Exchange rate arrangements; Global;All these keywords.
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2014/173. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.