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Emerging Markets in Transition: Growth Prospects and Challenges

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Luis M. Cubeddu
  • Mr. Alexander Culiuc
  • Ms. Ghada Fayad
  • Miss Yuan Gao
  • Ms. Kalpana Kochhar
  • Ms. Annette J Kyobe
  • Ceyda Oner
  • Mr. Roberto Perrelli
  • Sarah Sanya
  • Ms. Evridiki Tsounta
  • Mr. Zhongxia Zhang

Abstract

After a short-lived slowdown in the immediate aftermath of the global financial crisis and a swift rebound, emerging markets (EM) are now entering a period of slower growth. In fact, growth is now lower than the post-crisis peak of 2010-11, as well as the rates seen in the decade before the crisis. This raises the question of whether EMs can bounce back to the growth rates seen in the last decade or whether their prospects are dimmer than thought a few years ago. This SDN we will explore the drivers of the slowdown, how changes in external conditions that supported high growth in EMs will affect them over the medium term, and the policy priorities needed to sustain the growth rates seen in the past decades. In doing so, the paper differentiates EMs along various dimensions (e.g. degree of commodity dependence, trade and financial openness) to highlight the need to tailor policy priorities.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Luis M. Cubeddu & Mr. Alexander Culiuc & Ms. Ghada Fayad & Miss Yuan Gao & Ms. Kalpana Kochhar & Ms. Annette J Kyobe & Ceyda Oner & Mr. Roberto Perrelli & Sarah Sanya & Ms. Evridiki Tsounta & Mr. , 2014. "Emerging Markets in Transition: Growth Prospects and Challenges," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2014/006, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfsdn:2014/006
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ansgar Belke & Christian Dreger & Irina Dubova, 2019. "On the exposure of the BRIC countries to global economic shocks," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 122-142, January.
    2. Iwasaki, Ichiro & Kočenda, Evžen & Shida, Yoshisada, 2021. "Distressed acquisitions: Evidence from European emerging markets," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 962-990.
    3. Michael Murach & Helmut Wagner, 2021. "The effects of external shocks on the business cycle in China: A structural change perspective," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 681-702, August.
    4. Enrica Di Stefano & Daniela Marconi, 2015. "Assessing potential growth in emerging countries after the global financial crisis," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 256, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Ajai Chopra, 2015. "Financing Productivity- and Innovation-Led Growth in Developing Asia: International Lessons and Policy Issues," Working Paper Series WP15-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    6. Taya Dumrongrittikul & Heather Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2014. "The Effects of Productivity Gains in Asian Emerging Economies: A Global Perspective," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 23/14, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    7. Mr. Alexander Culiuc, 2020. "Real Exchange Rate Overshooting in Large Depreciations: Determinants and Consequences," IMF Working Papers 2020/060, International Monetary Fund.
    8. J. Kemp & B. Smit, 2016. "Estimating and Explaining Changes in Potential Growth in South Africa," Studies in Economics and Econometrics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 21-38, December.
    9. Murach, Michael & Wagner, Helmut, 2019. "The effects of external shocks on the business cycle in China: A structural change perspective," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 1/2016, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS), revised 2019.
    10. Mr. Alexander Culiuc & Ms. Annette J Kyobe, 2017. "Structural Reforms and External Rebalancing," IMF Working Papers 2017/182, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Fukuda, Kayano, 2020. "Science, technology and innovation ecosystem transformation toward society 5.0," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).

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