IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/kngedp/2023_002.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The autoregressive distributed lag bounds test generalised to consider a long-run levels relationship when all levels variables are 𝑰(𝟎)

Author

Listed:
  • Stewart, Chris

    (Kingston University London)

Abstract

Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001) introduced the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds cointegration testing procedure assuming the dependent variable is 𝐼(1) and allowing regressors to be 𝐼(1) or 𝐼(0). McNown et al (2018) and Sam et al (2019) propose a third test that avoids making incorrect inference if the dependent variable is not 𝐼(1) such that cointegration is only found when it exists. Because cointegration requires some variables to be 𝐼(1) an equilibrium with only 𝐼(0) variables is not considered. We argue that using new lower bound critical values the ARDL tests can determine whether an equilibrium exists when all levels variables can be 𝐼(0). This generalises the ARDL method to allow all levels variables to be 𝐼(1) or 𝐼(0).

Suggested Citation

  • Stewart, Chris, 2023. "The autoregressive distributed lag bounds test generalised to consider a long-run levels relationship when all levels variables are 𝑰(𝟎)," Economics Discussion Papers 2023-2, School of Economics, Kingston University London.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:kngedp:2023_002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://kunet.kingston.ac.uk/~ku33681/RePEc/kin/papers/2023_002.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cho, Jin Seo & Kim, Tae-hwan & Shin, Yongcheol, 2015. "Quantile cointegration in the autoregressive distributed-lag modeling framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(1), pages 281-300.
    2. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
    3. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Tsangyao Chang & Tsung-Hsien Chen & Han-Wen Tzeng, 2017. "Revisiting purchasing power parity in Eastern European countries: quantile unit root tests," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 463-483, March.
    4. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Tsangyao Chang & Ken Hung, 2013. "Revisiting purchasing power parity in Latin America: sequential panel selection method," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(32), pages 4584-4590, November.
    5. Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(1), pages 1-5.
    6. Huang, Chao-Hsi & Yang, Chih-Yuan, 2015. "European exchange rate regimes and purchasing power parity: An empirical study on eleven eurozone countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 100-109.
    7. Pejman Bahramian & Andisheh Saliminezhad, 2021. "Revisiting purchasing power parity in the ASEAN-5 countries: evidence from the Fourier quantile unit root test," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(13), pages 1104-1109, July.
    8. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    9. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall.
    10. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    11. Robert McNown & Chung Yan Sam & Soo Khoon Goh, 2018. "Bootstrapping the autoregressive distributed lag test for cointegration," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(13), pages 1509-1521, March.
    12. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    13. Crucini, Mario J. & Shintani, Mototsugu, 2008. "Persistence in law of one price deviations: Evidence from micro-data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 629-644, April.
    14. Jingfei Wu & Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Tsangyao Chang, 2018. "Revisiting purchasing power parity in G6 countries: an application of smooth time-varying cointegration approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 45(1), pages 187-196, February.
    15. Jin Seo Cho & Matthew Greenwood‐Nimmo & Yongcheol Shin, 2023. "Recent developments of the autoregressive distributed lag modelling framework," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 7-32, February.
    16. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    17. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall.
    18. Sam, Chung Yan & McNown, Robert & Goh, Soo Khoon, 2019. "An augmented autoregressive distributed lag bounds test for cointegration," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 130-141.
    19. Crownover, Collin & Pippenger, John & Steigerwald, Douglas G., 1996. "Testing for absolute purchasing power parity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 783-796, October.
    20. Robertson, Raymond & Kumar, Anil & Dutkowsky, Donald H., 2014. "Weak-form and strong-form purchasing power parity between the US and Mexico: A panel cointegration investigation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 241-262.
    21. Enrique Moral-Benito & Luis Serv鮠, 2015. "Testing weak exogeneity in cointegrated panels," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(30), pages 3216-3228, June.
    22. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Tsangyao Chang & Tsung-Pao Wu, 2015. "Purchasing Power Parity in Transition Countries: Panel Stationary Test with Smooth and Sharp Breaks," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-9, May.
    23. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    24. Matteo Pelagatti & Emilio Colombo, 2015. "On the Empirical Failure of Purchasing Power Parity Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(6), pages 904-923, September.
    25. Stewart, Chris, 2023. "Re-evaluating whether absolute or relative purchasing power parity is being tested when using price indices," Economics Discussion Papers 2023-1, School of Economics, Kingston University London.
    26. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Tsangyao Chang & Tsungpao Wu, 2014. "Revisiting purchasing power parity in African countries: panel stationary test with sharp and smooth breaks," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(22), pages 1429-1438, November.
    27. Lu Yang‐Cheng & Chang Tsangyao & Lee Chia‐Hao & Su Chi‐Wei, 2013. "Revisiting Purchasing Power Parity For 15 Latin American Countries: Threshold Unit Root Test," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(2), pages 165-174, March.
    28. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Tsangyao Chang & Wen-Chi Liu, 2014. "Revisiting purchasing power parity in 34 OECD countries: sequential panel selection method," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(18), pages 1283-1287, December.
    29. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    30. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty, 2009. "Purchasing Power Parity In Less‐Developed And Transition Economies: A Review Paper," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 617-658, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stewart, Chris, 2023. "Re-evaluating whether absolute or relative purchasing power parity is being tested when using price indices," Economics Discussion Papers 2023-1, School of Economics, Kingston University London.
    2. Mohamed Maher & Yanzhi Zhao, 2022. "Do Political Instability and Military Expenditure Undermine Economic Growth in Egypt? Evidence from the ARDL Approach," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(8), pages 956-979, November.
    3. Ibrar Hussain & Jawad Hussain & Arshad Ali & Shabir Ahmad, 2021. "A Dynamic Analysis of the Impact of Fiscal Adjustment on Economic Growth: Evidence From Pakistan," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, June.
    4. Stephan Schulmeister, 2005. "Purchasing Power Parities for Tradables, Exchange Rates and Price Competitiveness," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 25656.
    5. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Chang, Tsangyao & Lee, Kuei-Chiu, 2016. "Purchasing power parity in emerging markets: A panel stationary test with both sharp and smooth breaks," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 453-460.
    6. Derek Bond & Michael J. Harrison & Edward J. O'Brien, 2006. "Purchasing Power Parity: The Irish Experience Re-visited," Trinity Economics Papers tep200615, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    7. Hai Long Vo & Duc Hong Vo, 2023. "The purchasing power parity and exchange‐rate economics half a century on," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 446-479, April.
    8. Terra, Cristina & Valladares, Frederico, 2010. "Real exchange rate misalignments," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 119-144, January.
    9. repec:prg:jnlpep:v:preprint:id:654:p:1-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2006. "Deviations from purchasing power parity under different exchange rate regimes: Do they revert and, if so, how?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 3147-3169, November.
    11. Pata, Ugur Korkut & Caglar, Abdullah Emre, 2021. "Investigating the EKC hypothesis with renewable energy consumption, human capital, globalization and trade openness for China: Evidence from augmented ARDL approach with a structural break," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    12. Bibhuti Sarker & Farid Khan, 2020. "Nexus between foreign direct investment and economic growth in Bangladesh: an augmented autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-18, December.
    13. Marcos José Dal Bianco, 2008. "Argentinean real exchange rate 1900-2006, test purchasing power parity theory," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 35(1 Year 20), pages 33-64, June.
    14. Oladunjoye Opeyemi Nathaniel, 2019. "Validity of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) Hypothesis in the Ecowas (1980–2017)," Emerging Economy Studies, International Management Institute, vol. 5(2), pages 141-156, November.
    15. Muhammet Daştan & Hakan Eygü, 2024. "An empirical investigation of the link between economic growth, unemployment, and ecological footprint in Turkey: Bridging the EKC and EPC hypotheses," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(7), pages 18957-18988, July.
    16. H. Levent Korap & Ozgur Aslan, 2010. "Re-examination of the long-run purchasing power parity: further evidence from Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(27), pages 3559-3564.
    17. Miguel Carvalho & Paulo Júlio, 2012. "Digging out the PPP hypothesis: an integrated empirical coverage," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 713-744, June.
    18. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Tsangyao Chang & Tsung-Hsien Chen & Han-Wen Tzeng, 2017. "Revisiting purchasing power parity in Eastern European countries: quantile unit root tests," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 463-483, March.
    19. Ma, Wei & Li, Haiqi & Park, Sung Y., 2017. "Empirical conditional quantile test for purchasing power parity: Evidence from East Asian countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 211-222.
    20. Burak Güriş & Muhammed Tiraşoğlu, 2018. "The Validity of Purchasing Power Parity in BRICS Countries," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(4), pages 417-426.
    21. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Modeling purchasing power parity using co-integration: evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 19584, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    autoregressive distributed lag bounds test; 𝐼(0) variables; new lower bound critical values; law of one price;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:kngedp:2023_002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Andrea Ingianni (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sekinuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.