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Charting the Development of a Global Market for Low-Carbon Hydrogen

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  • Schönfisch, Max

    (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI))

Abstract

This paper analyses the impact of supply technology choices and costs on structures and prices on the emerging low-carbon hydrogen market using a novel, integrated natural gas and hydrogen market model. It shows that natural gas-based low-carbon hydrogen production pathways predominate in technology-neutral scenarios in 2050. In scenarios where hydrogen production is gas-based, hydrogen is produced close to the point of consumption. Natural gas prices determine local hydrogen prices. In scenarios characterised by high shares of RES-based low-carbon hydrogen production, long-distance, cross-border trade in pure hydrogen becomes an economically viable proposition due to the heterogeneous distribution of low-cost RES potentials and significant hydrogen price spreads between countries with high hydrogen demand but poor RES potentials, and countries that are well endowed with cost-competitive RES. Trade is conducted almost exclusively via pipeline. The analysis finds the most significant potential for cross-border trade in and around Europe. It suggests that it would be economical for Europe to import substantial quantities of low-carbon hydrogen from North Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Schönfisch, Max, 2022. "Charting the Development of a Global Market for Low-Carbon Hydrogen," EWI Working Papers 2022-3, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:ewikln:2022_003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hydrogen;

    JEL classification:

    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q49 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Other

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