IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/ewikln/2017_001.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Turkey's Role in Natural Gas - Becoming a Transit Country?

Author

Listed:
  • Berk, Istemi

    (Dokuz Eylul University, Iszmir, Turkey)

  • Schulte, Simon

    (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI))

Abstract

This paper analyses the possible future role that Turkey can play in European natural gas markets. We employ a global gas market simulation model, COLUMBUS, to assess the outcomes of different scenarios concerning natural gas supply routes to Europe through Turkey up to 2030. The results imply simply that under current conditions, i.e., a more competitive environment in European gas markets leading to low gas prices, Turkey’s role would be of only minor importance. In accordance with various scenarios presented in this study, Turkey’s role is seen at its most important when European demand increases and Russia exerts power in the European markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Berk, Istemi & Schulte, Simon, 2017. "Turkey's Role in Natural Gas - Becoming a Transit Country?," EWI Working Papers 2017-1, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI), revised 27 Jan 2017.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:ewikln:2017_001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ewi.uni-koeln.de/cms/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/EWI_WP_17-01_TurkeysRoleInNaturalGas.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lise, Wietze & Hobbs, Benjamin F. & van Oostvoorn, Frits, 2008. "Natural gas corridors between the EU and its main suppliers: Simulation results with the dynamic GASTALE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1890-1906, June.
    2. Abada, Ibrahim & Massol, Olivier, 2011. "Security of supply and retail competition in the European gas market.: Some model-based insights," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 4077-4088, July.
    3. Boussena, S. & Locatelli, C., 2013. "Energy institutional and organisational changes in EU and Russia: Revisiting gas relations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 180-189.
    4. Ibrahim Abada & Steven Gabriel & Vincent Briat & Olivier Massol, 2013. "A Generalized Nash–Cournot Model for the Northwestern European Natural Gas Markets with a Fuel Substitution Demand Function: The GaMMES Model," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 1-42, March.
    5. Sadek Boussena & Catherine Locatelli, 2013. "Energy institutional and organisational changes in EU and Russia: Revisiting gas relations," Post-Print halshs-00785127, HAL.
    6. Erdogdu, Erkan, 2010. "Bypassing Russia: Nabucco project and its implications for the European gas security," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(9), pages 2936-2945, December.
    7. Simone Tagliapietra, 2014. "After the 2014 Ukraine Crisis: What's Next for the EU-Turkey Energy Relations?," Review of Environment, Energy and Economics - Re3, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, September.
    8. Ibrahim Abada & Pierre-André Jouvet, 2013. "A stochastic generalized Nash-Cournot model for the northwestern European natural gas markets: The S-GaMMES model," Working Papers 1308, Chaire Economie du climat.
    9. Söderbergh, Bengt & Jakobsson, Kristofer & Aleklett, Kjell, 2010. "European energy security: An analysis of future Russian natural gas production and exports," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(12), pages 7827-7843, December.
    10. Correlje, Aad & van der Linde, Coby, 2006. "Energy supply security and geopolitics: A European perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 532-543, March.
    11. Costantini, Valeria & Gracceva, Francesco & Markandya, Anil & Vicini, Giorgio, 2007. "Security of energy supply: Comparing scenarios from a European perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 210-226, January.
    12. Ibrahim Abada & Vincent Briat & A Gabriel & Olivier Massol, 2011. "A generalized Nash-Cournot model for the northwest European natural gas markets with a fuel substitutions demand function. The GaMMES model," Working Papers hal-02505496, HAL.
    13. Richter, Philipp M. & Holz, Franziska, 2015. "All quiet on the eastern front? Disruption scenarios of Russian natural gas supply to Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 177-189.
    14. Melikoglu, Mehmet, 2013. "Vision 2023: Forecasting Turkey's natural gas demand between 2013 and 2030," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 393-400.
    15. Chi-Kong Chyong & Benjamin F. Hobbs, 2011. "Strategic Eurasian Natural Gas Model for Energy Security and Policy Analysis," Working Papers EPRG 1115, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    16. Umbach, Frank, 2010. "Global energy security and the implications for the EU," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1229-1240, March.
    17. Egging, Ruud & Holz, Franziska & Gabriel, Steven A., 2010. "The World Gas Model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 4016-4029.
    18. Wietze Lise and Benjamin F. Hobbs, 2009. "A Dynamic Simulation of Market Power in the Liberalised European Natural Gas Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 119-136.
    19. Bilgin, Mert, 2009. "Geopolitics of European natural gas demand: Supplies from Russia, Caspian and the Middle East," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4482-4492, November.
    20. Monforti, F. & Szikszai, A., 2010. "A MonteCarlo approach for assessing the adequacy of the European gas transmission system under supply crisis conditions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2486-2498, May.
    21. Spanjer, Aldo, 2007. "Russian gas price reform and the EU-Russia gas relationship: Incentives, consequences and European security of supply," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 2889-2898, May.
    22. Egging, Ruud & Gabriel, Steven A. & Holz, Franziska & Zhuang, Jifang, 2008. "A complementarity model for the European natural gas market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2385-2414, July.
    23. Söderbergh, Bengt & Jakobsson, Kristofer & Aleklett, Kjell, 2009. "European energy security: The future of Norwegian natural gas production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5037-5055, December.
    24. Simone Tagliapietra, 2014. "The EU-Turkey Energy Relations After the 2014 Ukraine Crisis. Enhancing The Partnership in a Rapidly Changing Environment," Working Papers 2014.75, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    25. Sagen, Eirik Lund & Tsygankova, Marina, 2008. "Russian natural gas exports--Will Russian gas price reforms improve the European security of supply," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 867-880, February.
    26. Tagliapietra, Simone, 2014. "The EU-Turkey Energy Relations After the 2014 Ukraine Crisis. Enhancing The Partnership in a Rapidly Changing Environment," Energy: Resources and Markets 183739, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    27. Hedenus, Fredrik & Azar, Christian & Johansson, Daniel J.A., 2010. "Energy security policies in EU-25--The expected cost of oil supply disruptions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1241-1250, March.
    28. Remme, Uwe & Blesl, Markus & Fahl, Ulrich, 2008. "Future European gas supply in the resource triangle of the Former Soviet Union, the Middle East and Northern Africa," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1622-1641, May.
    29. Bilgin, Mert, 2007. "New prospects in the political economy of inner-Caspian hydrocarbons and western energy corridor through Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6383-6394, December.
    30. Hecking, Harald & Panke, Timo, 2012. "COLUMBUS - A global gas market model," EWI Working Papers 2012-6, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    31. Reymond, Mathias, 2007. "European key issues concerning natural gas: Dependence and vulnerability," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 4169-4176, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Berk, Istemi & Çam, Eren, 2020. "The shift in global crude oil market structure: A model-based analysis of the period 2013–2017," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    2. Berk, Istemi & Çam , Eren, 2019. "The Shift in Global Crude Oil Market Structure: A model-based analysis of the period 2013–2017," EWI Working Papers 2019-5, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    3. Farag, Markos & Zaki, Chahir, 2021. "On the Determinants of Trade in Natural Gas: A Political Economy Approach," EWI Working Papers 2021-8, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    4. Hauser, Philipp & Heinrichs, Heidi U. & Gillessen, Bastian & Müller, Theresa, 2018. "Implications of diversification strategies in the European natural gas market for the German energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 442-454.
    5. Berk, Istemi & Ediger, Volkan Ş., 2018. "A historical assessment of Turkey’s natural gas import vulnerability," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 540-547.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Schulte, Simon & Weiser, Florian, 2017. "Natural Gas Transits and Market Power - The Case of Turkey," EWI Working Papers 2017-6, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI), revised 15 Aug 2017.
    2. Ibrahim Abada, 2012. "A stochastic generalized Nash-Cournot model for the northwestern European natural gas markets with a fuel substitution demand function: The S-GaMMES model," Working Papers 1202, Chaire Economie du climat.
    3. Christian Growitsch & Harald Hecking & Timo Panke, 2014. "Supply Disruptions and Regional Price Effects in a Spatial Oligopoly—An Application to the Global Gas Market," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(5), pages 944-975, November.
    4. Chyong, Chi Kong & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2014. "Strategic Eurasian natural gas market model for energy security and policy analysis: Formulation and application to South Stream," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 198-211.
    5. Stevie Lochran, 2021. "GNOME: A Dynamic Dispatch and Investment Optimisation Model of the European Natural Gas Network and Its Suppliers," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 1-44, December.
    6. András Kiss, Adrienn Selei, and Borbála Takácsné Tóth, 2016. "A Top-Down Approach to Evaluating Cross-Border Natural Gas Infrastructure Projects in Europe," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Sustainab).
    7. Veronika Grimm & Lars Schewe & Martin Schmidt & Gregor Zöttl, 2019. "A multilevel model of the European entry-exit gas market," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 89(2), pages 223-255, April.
    8. Tavana, Madjid & Pirdashti, Mohsen & Kennedy, Dennis T. & Belaud, Jean-Pierre & Behzadian, Majid, 2012. "A hybrid Delphi-SWOT paradigm for oil and gas pipeline strategic planning in Caspian Sea basin," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 345-360.
    9. Ibrahim Abada, 2012. "Study of the evolution of the northwestern European natural gas markets using S-GaMMES," Working Papers 1203, Chaire Economie du climat.
    10. Abrell, Jan & Chavaz, Léo & Weigt, Hannes, 2019. "Dealing with Supply Disruptions on the European Natural Gas Market: Infrastructure Investments or Coordinated Policies?," Working papers 2019/11, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    11. Flouri, Maria & Karakosta, Charikleia & Kladouchou, Charikleia & Psarras, John, 2015. "How does a natural gas supply interruption affect the EU gas security? A Monte Carlo simulation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 785-796.
    12. Lu, Weiwei & Su, Meirong & Fath, Brian D. & Zhang, Mingqi & Hao, Yan, 2016. "A systematic method of evaluation of the Chinese natural gas supply security," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 858-867.
    13. Lochner, Stefan & Dieckhöner, Caroline, 2012. "Civil unrest in North Africa—Risks for natural gas supply?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 167-175.
    14. Mingqi Zhang & Meirong Su & Weiwei Lu & Chunhua Su, 2015. "An Assessment of the Security of China’s Natural Gas Supply System Using Two Network Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-16, December.
    15. Mingjing Guo & Yan Bu & Jinhua Cheng & Ziyu Jiang, 2018. "Natural Gas Security in China: A Simulation of Evolutionary Trajectory and Obstacle Degree Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-18, December.
    16. Sziklai, Balázs R. & Kóczy, László Á. & Csercsik, Dávid, 2020. "The impact of Nord Stream 2 on the European gas market bargaining positions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    17. Ibrahim Abada & Steven Gabriel & Vincent Briat & Olivier Massol, 2013. "A Generalized Nash–Cournot Model for the Northwestern European Natural Gas Markets with a Fuel Substitution Demand Function: The GaMMES Model," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 1-42, March.
    18. Gong, Chengzhu & Wu, Desheng & Gong, Nianjiao & Qi, Rui, 2020. "Multi-agent mixed complementary simulation of natural gas upstream market liberalization in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    19. Brkic, Dejan, 2009. "Serbian gas sector in the spotlight of oil and gas agreement with Russia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1925-1938, May.
    20. Chyong, Chi Kong & Henderson, James, 2024. "Quantifying the economic value of Russian gas in Europe in the aftermath of the 2022 war in Ukraine," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COLUMBUS; European Gas Supply; Turkey; Scenario Analyses;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:ewikln:2017_001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sabine Williams (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ewikode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.