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Implications of diversification strategies in the European natural gas market for the German energy system

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  • Hauser, Philipp
  • Heinrichs, Heidi U.
  • Gillessen, Bastian
  • Müller, Theresa

Abstract

The energy system is facing changes across Europe, motivated by CO2 emission reduction targets and driven by the expansion of renewable energy sources (RES). Germany is carrying out efforts to reshape its future energy system to be mainly based on RES. Nonetheless, flexible generation capacities like natural gas (NG) power plants will still be needed in the coming decades. Recent developments in the NG market have been characterised by uncertainties on the supply side as plans have been put forth for new pipelines to facilitate Russian or Caspian NG towards Europe as well as increasing volumes of liquefied natural gas entering the market. This paper aims to show the interdependence between infrastructure developments and primary NG demand in the German energy system. The authors analyse impacts for the German ‘Energiewende’ on a time horizon from 2010 to 2050. Coupling a European NG model with a German energy system model, we develop six scenarios regarding climate policy in Germany and European diversification strategies in infrastructure expansion. The results show, that NG prices influence sectoral changes especially in the residential sector. Further strategies to reduce CO2 emissions in the entire energy system should also consider NG as part of the solution.

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  • Hauser, Philipp & Heinrichs, Heidi U. & Gillessen, Bastian & Müller, Theresa, 2018. "Implications of diversification strategies in the European natural gas market for the German energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 442-454.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:151:y:2018:i:c:p:442-454
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2018.03.065
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    7. Philipp Hauser & Sina Heidari & Christoph Weber & Dominik Möst, 2019. "Does Increasing Natural Gas Demand in the Power Sector Pose a Threat of Congestion to the German Gas Grid? A Model-Coupling Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-22, June.
    8. Vitor Miguel Ribeiro & Gustavo Soutinho & Isabel Soares, 2023. "Natural Gas Prices in the Framework of European Union’s Energy Transition: Assessing Evolution and Drivers," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-46, February.
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    10. Devine, Mel & Russo, Marianna, 2018. "LNG and gas storage optimisation and valuation: lessons from the integrated Irish and UK markets," Papers WP606, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    11. Gong, Chengzhu & Gong, Nianjiao & Qi, Rui & Yu, Shiwei, 2020. "Assessment of natural gas supply security in Asia Pacific: Composite indicators with compromise Benefit-of-the-Doubt weights," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    12. Finke, Jonas & Bertsch, Valentin, 2022. "Implementing a highly adaptable method for the multi-objective optimisation of energy systems," MPRA Paper 115504, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Sesini, Marzia & Giarola, Sara & Hawkes, Adam D., 2021. "Strategic natural gas storage coordination among EU member states in response to disruption in the trans Austria gas pipeline: A stochastic approach to solidarity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    14. Heinrichs, H.U. & Mourao, Z. & Venghaus, S. & Konadu, D. & Gillessen, B. & Vögele, S. & Linssen, J. & Allwood, J. & Kuckshinrichs, W. & Robinius, M. & Stolten, D., 2021. "Analysing the water and land system impacts of Germany's future energy system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    15. Gillessen, B. & Heinrichs, H. & Hake, J.-F. & Allelein, H.-J., 2019. "Natural gas as a bridge to sustainability: Infrastructure expansion regarding energy security and system transition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    16. Dubský, Zbyněk & Tichý, Lukáš & Pavliňák, Daniel, 2021. "A quantifiable approach to the selection of criteria and indexation for comparison of the gas pipeline projects leading to the EU: Diversification rationality against securitisation?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).

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