IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cty/dpaper/11-04.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Security of supply and retail competition in the European gas market: Some model-based insights

Author

Listed:
  • Abada, I.
  • Massol, O.

Abstract

In this paper, we analyze the impact of uncertain disruptions in gas supply upon gas retailer contracting behavior and consequent price and welfare implications in a gas market characterized by long-term gas contracts using a static Cournot model. In order to most realistically describe the economical situation, our representation divides the market into two stages: the upstream market that links, by means of long-term contracts, producers in exporting countries (Russia, Algeria, etc.) to local retailers who bring gas to the consuming countries to satisfy local demands in the downstream market. Disruption costs are modeled using short-run demand functions. First we mathematically develop a general model and write the associated KKT conditions, then we propose some case studies, under iso-elasticity assumptions, for the long- short-run inverse-demand curves in order to predict qualitatively and quantitatively the impacts of supply disruptions on Western European gas trade. In the second part, we study in detail the German gas market of the 1980s to explain the supply choices of the German retailer, and we derive interesting conclusions and insights concerning the amounts and prices of natural gas brought to the market. The last part of the paper is dedicated to a study of the Bulgarian gas market, which is greatly dependent on the Russian gas supplies and hence very sensitive to interruption risks. Some interesting conclusions are derived concerning the necessity to economically regulate the market, by means of gas amounts control, if the disruption probability is high enough.

Suggested Citation

  • Abada, I. & Massol, O., 2011. "Security of supply and retail competition in the European gas market: Some model-based insights," Working Papers 11/04, Department of Economics, City University London.
    • Handle: RePEc:cty:dpaper:11/04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://openaccess.city.ac.uk/id/eprint/1458/1/Security_of_supply_and_retail_competition.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Albert L. Nichols & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 1977. "Stockpiling Strategies and Cartel Prices," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 8(1), pages 66-96, Spring.
    2. Helm, Dieter, 2002. "Energy policy: security of supply, sustainability and competition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 173-184, February.
    3. D. W. Bunn & M. M. Mustafaoglu, 1978. "Forecasting Political Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(15), pages 1557-1567, November.
    4. Lefèvre, Nicolas, 2010. "Measuring the energy security implications of fossil fuel resource concentration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1635-1644, April.
    5. Manne, Alan S. & Roland, Kjell & Stephan, Gunter, 1986. "Security of supply in the Western European market for natural gas," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 52-64, February.
    6. Olivier MASSOL & Stéphane TCHUNG-MING, 2009. "Cooperation among liquefied natural gas suppliers: is rationalization the sole objective?," Cahiers du CREDEN (CREDEN Working Papers) 09.02.82, CREDEN (Centre de Recherche en Economie et Droit de l'Energie), Faculty of Economics, University of Montpellier 1.
    7. Massol, Olivier & Tchung-Ming, Stéphane, 2010. "Cooperation among liquefied natural gas suppliers: Is rationalization the sole objective?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 933-947, July.
    8. Costantini, Valeria & Gracceva, Francesco & Markandya, Anil & Vicini, Giorgio, 2007. "Security of energy supply: Comparing scenarios from a European perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 210-226, January.
    9. Vickers, John & Yarrow, George, 1988. "Regulation of privatised firms in Britain," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(2-3), pages 465-472, March.
    10. Markandya, Anil & Pemberton, Malcolm, 2010. "Energy security, energy modelling and uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1609-1613, April.
    11. Frederic H. Murphy & Michael A. Toman & Howard J. Weiss, 1987. "A Stochastic Dynamic Nash Game Analysis of Policies for Managing the Strategic Petroleum Reserves of Consuming Nations," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 33(4), pages 484-499, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ibrahim Abada & Olivier Massol, 2010. "Security of supply in the European Gas Market A model-based analysis," Working Papers hal-04140916, HAL.
    2. repec:cty:dpaper:10.1016/j.enpol.2011.03.043 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:cty:dpaper:1458 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Jewell, Jessica & Cherp, Aleh & Riahi, Keywan, 2014. "Energy security under de-carbonization scenarios: An assessment framework and evaluation under different technology and policy choices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 743-760.
    5. Aleh Cherp & Jessica Jewell, 2013. "Energy security assessment framework and three case studies," Chapters, in: Hugh Dyer & Maria Julia Trombetta (ed.), International Handbook of Energy Security, chapter 8, pages 146-173, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Chuang, Ming Chih & Ma, Hwong Wen, 2013. "Energy security and improvements in the function of diversity indices—Taiwan energy supply structure case study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 9-20.
    7. Böhringer, Christoph & Bortolamedi, Markus, 2015. "Sense and no(n)-sense of energy security indicators," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 359-371.
    8. Sovacool, Benjamin K., 2013. "An international assessment of energy security performance," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 148-158.
    9. Zhang, Hai-Ying & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2013. "An evaluation framework for oil import security based on the supply chain with a case study focused on China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 87-95.
    10. Chen, Xin & Mu, Hailin & Li, Huanan & Gui, Shusen, 2014. "Using stockpile delegation to improve China׳s strategic oil policy: A multi-dimension stochastic dynamic programming approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 28-42.
    11. Sato, Masahiro & Kharrazi, Ali & Nakayama, Hirofumi & Kraines, Steven & Yarime, Masaru, 2017. "Quantifying the supplier-portfolio diversity of embodied energy: Strategic implications for strengthening energy resilience," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 41-52.
    12. Ge, Fenglong & Fan, Ying, 2013. "Quantifying the risk to crude oil imports in China: An improved portfolio approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 72-80.
    13. Huanan Li & Xin Chen, 2016. "Dynamic game analysis on China’s public and private oil stockpiles," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(1), pages 715-723, October.
    14. van Moerkerk, Mike & Crijns-Graus, Wina, 2016. "A comparison of oil supply risks in EU, US, Japan, China and India under different climate scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 148-158.
    15. Arthur Thomas & Olivier Massol & Benoît Sévi, 2019. "How are day-ahead prices informative for predicting the next day’s consumption of natural gas?," Post-Print hal-04319396, HAL.
    16. Stirling, Andy, 2010. "Multicriteria diversity analysis: A novel heuristic framework for appraising energy portfolios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1622-1634, April.
    17. Özge Dilaver & Zafer Dilaver & Lester C Hunt, 2013. "What Drives Natural Gas Consumption in Europe? Analysis and Projections," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 143, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    18. Iskin, Ibrahim & Daim, Tugrul & Kayakutlu, Gulgun & Altuntas, Mehmet, 2012. "Exploring renewable energy pricing with analytic network process — Comparing a developed and a developing economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 882-891.
    19. Oguzhan Aslanturk & Goktug K pr zl, 2020. "The Role of Renewable Energy in Ensuring Energy Security of Supply and Reducing Energy-Related Import," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 354-359.
    20. Sovacool, Benjamin K. & Mukherjee, Ishani, 2011. "Conceptualizing and measuring energy security: A synthesized approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 5343-5355.
    21. Vivoda, Vlado, 2009. "Diversification of oil import sources and energy security: A key strategy or an elusive objective?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4615-4623, November.
    22. Dakpogan, Arnaud & Smit, Eon, 2018. "Measuring electricity security risk," MPRA Paper 89295, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    security of supply; natural gas; market models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • L31 - Industrial Organization - - Nonprofit Organizations and Public Enterprise - - - Nonprofit Institutions; NGOs; Social Entrepreneurship
    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cty:dpaper:11/04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Research Publications Librarian (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decituk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.