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The impact of Nord Stream 2 on the European gas market bargaining positions

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  • Sziklai, Balázs R.
  • Kóczy, László Á.
  • Csercsik, Dávid

Abstract

We investigate the impact and the possible consequences of the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. We model the European gas network as a cooperative game between regions as players over the pipeline network. Our model offers several novelties compared to earlier cooperative studies. Firstly, we focus on cost saving rather than on the profits of cooperation. Secondly, we introduce liquefied natural gas as a player. Thirdly, we apply an iterative linear program to account for the long term bilateral contracts that still drive the gas market. This modelling technique also allows us to identify individual gas flows. We focus on the change of influence of the players in three different scenarios. We investigate how the power of the agents shift when the Nord Stream pipeline is expanded, when the Ukrainian pipeline is shut down and finally when both of these happen. Our calculations show that when Nord Stream 2 is operational, Russia and Western Europe improve their position compared to the base scenario, while other suppliers, notably Norway, together with Central- Eastern- and Southern Europe suffer losses, especially when the Ukrainian route is dismissed. The results highlight that both the supporters and adversaries of Nord Stream 2 are governed by self-interest and solidarity and trust, the values proclaimed by the EU and the Energy Union, remain but a slogan.

Suggested Citation

  • Sziklai, Balázs R. & Kóczy, László Á. & Csercsik, Dávid, 2020. "The impact of Nord Stream 2 on the European gas market bargaining positions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:144:y:2020:i:c:s0301421520304201
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111692
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    4. V. A. Volkonsky & A. I. Kuzovkin, 2021. "Benefits and Losses for European Countries from the Northern Stream-2 Gas Pipeline: Overview of Estimates by Scientists and Energy Industries," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 32(6), pages 689-694, November.
    5. Filip Božić & Daria Karasalihović Sedlar & Ivan Smajla & Ivana Ivančić, 2021. "Analysis of Changes in Natural Gas Physical Flows for Europe via Ukraine in 2020," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-22, August.
    6. Wood, Steve & Henke, Otto, 2021. "Denmark and Nord Stream 2: A small state's role in global energy politics," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PB).
    7. Biró, Péter & Csáji, Gergely, 2024. "Strong core and Pareto-optimality in the multiple partners matching problem under lexicographic preference domains," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 217-238.
    8. Mišík, Matúš, 2022. "The EU needs to improve its external energy security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    9. Christine Sturm, 2022. "Between a rock and a hard place: European energy policy and complexity in the wake of the Ukraine war," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 49(4), pages 835-878, December.

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