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European energy security: The future of Norwegian natural gas production

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  • Söderbergh, Bengt
  • Jakobsson, Kristofer
  • Aleklett, Kjell

Abstract

The European Union (EU) is expected to meet its future growing demand for natural gas by increased imports. In 2006, Norway had a 21% share of EU gas imports. The Norwegian government has communicated that Norwegian gas production will increase by 25-40% from today's level of about 99 billion cubic meters (bcm)/year. This article shows that only a 20-25% growth of Norwegian gas production is possible due to production from currently existing recoverable reserves and contingent resources. A high and a low production forecast for Norwegian gas production is presented. Norwegian gas production exported by pipeline peaks between 2015 and 2016, with minimum peak production in 2015 at 118Â bcm/year and maximum peak production at 127Â bcm/year in 2016. By 2030 the pipeline export levels are 94-78Â bcm. Total Norwegian gas production peaks between 2015 and 2020, with peak production at 124-135Â bcm/year. By 2030 the production is 96-115Â bcm/year. The results show that there is a limited potential for increased gas exports from Norway to the EU and that Norwegian gas production is declining by 2030 in all scenarios. Annual Norwegian pipeline gas exports to the EU, by 2030, may even be 20Â bcm lower than today's level.

Suggested Citation

  • Söderbergh, Bengt & Jakobsson, Kristofer & Aleklett, Kjell, 2009. "European energy security: The future of Norwegian natural gas production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5037-5055, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:12:p:5037-5055
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jakobsson, Kristofer & Söderbergh, Bengt & Höök, Mikael & Aleklett, Kjell, 2009. "How reasonable are oil production scenarios from public agencies?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4809-4818, November.
    2. Stern, Jonathan, 2005. "The Future of Russian Gas and Gazprom," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780197300312.
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    2. Holz, Franziska & Brauers, Hanna & Richter, Philipp M. & Roobeek, Thorsten, 2017. "Shaking Dutch grounds won’t shatter the European gas market," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 64, pages 520-529.
    3. P. Hammond, Geoffrey & O' Grady, Áine, 2017. "The life cycle greenhouse gas implications of a UK gas supply transformation on a future low carbon electricity sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 937-949.
    4. Söderbergh, Bengt & Jakobsson, Kristofer & Aleklett, Kjell, 2010. "European energy security: An analysis of future Russian natural gas production and exports," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(12), pages 7827-7843, December.
    5. Bey, M. & Hamidat, A. & Benyoucef, B. & Nacer, T., 2016. "Viability study of the use of grid connected photovoltaic system in agriculture: Case of Algerian dairy farms," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 333-345.
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    7. Berk, Istemi & Schulte, Simon, 2017. "Turkey's Role in Natural Gas - Becoming a Transit Country?," EWI Working Papers 2017-1, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI), revised 27 Jan 2017.
    8. Hallack, Larissa Nogueira & Szklo, Alexandre, 2019. "Assessing the exploratory potential in Brazil by applying a creaming curve variant," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 672-683.

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