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Future European gas supply in the resource triangle of the Former Soviet Union, the Middle East and Northern Africa

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  • Remme, Uwe
  • Blesl, Markus
  • Fahl, Ulrich

Abstract

A steady increase of natural gas demand can be observed in Europe over the last decades. Due to the European obligation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the framework of the Kyoto Protocol, the trend toward natural gas is expected to continue in the future. The increased consumption is faced by comparably low indigenous gas resources within Europe, so that the dependency of Europe on gas imports from abroad will rise in the future. In addition to the existing supply sources Russia and Algeria, gas resources from the Middle East and the Caspian and the Central Asian regions may be supply options to cover Europe's gas demand in the future. Against this background, possible natural gas supply options as well as the transport infrastructure to and within Europe are discussed regarding their technical capacity and their costs. With the help of a cost-minimization model of the European gas supply system, the gas flows and the infrastructure capacity development up to the year 2030 are analyzed. In a sensitivity analysis, the impacts of demand variations on the choice of supply sources are studied.

Suggested Citation

  • Remme, Uwe & Blesl, Markus & Fahl, Ulrich, 2008. "Future European gas supply in the resource triangle of the Former Soviet Union, the Middle East and Northern Africa," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1622-1641, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:36:y:2008:i:5:p:1622-1641
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dahl, Carol & Gjelsvik, Eystein, 1993. "European natural gas cost survey," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 185-204, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bilgin, Mert, 2009. "Geopolitics of European natural gas demand: Supplies from Russia, Caspian and the Middle East," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4482-4492, November.
    2. Marina Tsygankova, 2008. "Netback pricing as a remedy for the Russian gas deficit," Discussion Papers 554, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    3. Brkic, Dejan, 2009. "Serbian gas sector in the spotlight of oil and gas agreement with Russia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1925-1938, May.
    4. Zglobisz, Natalia & Castillo-Castillo, Arturo & Grimes, Sue & Jones, Peter, 2010. "Influence of UK energy policy on the deployment of anaerobic digestion," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5988-5999, October.
    5. Brkić, Dejan & Tanasković, Toma I., 2008. "Systematic approach to natural gas usage for domestic heating in urban areas," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 1738-1753.
    6. Lochner, Stefan & Bothe, David, 2009. "The development of natural gas supply costs to Europe, the United States and Japan in a globalizing gas market--Model-based analysis until 2030," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1518-1528, April.
    7. Berk, Istemi & Schulte, Simon, 2017. "Turkey's Role in Natural Gas - Becoming a Transit Country?," EWI Working Papers 2017-1, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI), revised 27 Jan 2017.
    8. Steven Brakman & Charles van Marrewijk & Arjen van Witteloostuijn & Charles van Marrewijk, 2009. "Market Liberalization in the European Natural Gas Market - The Importance of Capacity Constraints and Efficiency Differences," CESifo Working Paper Series 2697, CESifo.
    9. Özge Dilaver & Zafer Dilaver & Lester C Hunt, 2013. "What Drives Natural Gas Consumption in Europe? Analysis and Projections," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 143, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    10. Devlin, Joseph & Li, Kang & Higgins, Paraic & Foley, Aoife, 2017. "Gas generation and wind power: A review of unlikely allies in the United Kingdom and Ireland," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 757-768.

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