IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rff/dpaper/dp-11-09-efd.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Climate Change and the Ethiopian Economy: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Gebreegziabher, Zenebe
  • Stage, Jesper
  • Mekonnen, Alemu
  • Alemu, Atlaw

Abstract

This paper analyses the economic impacts of climate change on Ethiopia’s agriculture using a countrywide computable general equilibrium model. The impacts on agriculture are based on results from a Ricardian model where current (and future) agricultural production is analyzed as a function of temperature and precipitation. We project that the effect of overall climate change will be relatively benign until approximately 2030 and then worsen considerably. Our simulation results indicate that, over a 50-year period, the projected reduction in agricultural productivity may lead to 30 percent less average income, compared with the possible outcome in the absence of climate change. Autonomous adaptations that the farmers make and government policies in response will be crucial for Ethiopia’s future development.

Suggested Citation

  • Gebreegziabher, Zenebe & Stage, Jesper & Mekonnen, Alemu & Alemu, Atlaw, 2011. "Climate Change and the Ethiopian Economy: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," RFF Working Paper Series dp-11-09-efd, Resources for the Future.
    • Handle: RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-11-09-efd
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.rff.org/RFF/documents/EfD-DP-11-09.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Channing Arndt & Kenneth Strzepek & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow & Charles Fant & Len Tiu Wright, 2010. "Adapting to Climate Change: An Integrated Biophysical and Economic Assessment for Mozambique," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2010-101, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Robert Kates, 2000. "Cautionary Tales: Adaptation and the Global Poor," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 5-17, April.
    3. Robert Mendelsohn & Ariel Dinar, 2009. "Climate Change and Agriculture," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12990.
    4. Arndt, Channing & Strzepeck, Kenneth & Tarp, Finn & Thurlow, James & Fant, Charles & Wright, Len, 2010. "Adapting to Climate Change An Integrated Biophysical and Economic Assessment for Mozambique," WIDER Working Paper Series 101, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. World Bank, 2008. "Ethiopia - A Country Study on the Economic Impacts of Climate Change," World Bank Publications - Reports 8030, The World Bank Group.
    6. Hannah Reid & Linda Sahl�N & Jesper Stage & James Macgregor, 2008. "Climate change impacts on Namibia's natural resources and economy," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(5), pages 452-466, September.
    7. Mintewab Bezabih & Muyeye Chambwera & Jesper Stage, 2011. "Climate change and total factor productivity in the Tanzanian economy," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 1289-1302, November.
    8. S. Seo & Robert Mendelsohn & Ariel Dinar & Rashid Hassan & Pradeep Kurukulasuriya, 2009. "A Ricardian Analysis of the Distribution of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture across Agro-Ecological Zones in Africa," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 313-332, July.
    9. Pattanayak Subhrendu K. & Ross Martin T. & Depro Brooks M. & Bauch Simone C. & Timmins Christopher & Wendland Kelly J. & Alger Keith, 2009. "Climate Change and Conservation in Brazil: CGE Evaluation of Health and Wealth Impacts," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-44, September.
    10. Zhai, Fan & Lin, Tun & Byambadorj, Enerelt, 2009. "A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in the People’s Republic of China," Asian Development Review, Asian Development Bank, vol. 26(1), pages 206-225.
    11. -, 2009. "The economics of climate change," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38679, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    12. Oecd, 2009. "Climate Change and Africa," OECD Journal: General Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 2009(1), pages 5-35.
    13. Deressa, Temesgen Tadesse, 2007. "Measuring the economic impact of climate change on Ethiopian agriculture : Ricardian approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4342, The World Bank.
    14. Thurlow, James & Zhu, Tingju & Diao, Xinshen, 2009. "The impact of climate variability and change on economic growth and poverty in Zambia:," IFPRI discussion papers 890, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    15. Deressa, Temesgen & Hassan, Rashid M. & Ringler, Claudia, 2008. "Measuring Ethiopian farmers' vulnerability to climate change across regional states:," IFPRI discussion papers 806, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    16. Balassa, Bela, 1985. "Exports, policy choices, and economic growth in developing countries after the 1973 oil shock," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 23-35.
    17. S. Niggol Seo & Robert Mendelsohn, 2008. "Measuring impacts and adaptations to climate change: a structural Ricardian model of African livestock management-super-1," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 38(2), pages 151-165, March.
    18. Deressa, Temesgen & Hassan, R. M. & Alemu, Tekie & Yesuf, Mahmud & Ringler, Claudia, 2008. "Analyzing the determinants of farmers' choice of adaptation methods and perceptions of climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia:," IFPRI discussion papers 798, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    19. Löfgren, Hans & Harris, Rebecca Lee & Robinson, Sherman, 2001. "A standard computable general equilibrium (CGE) model in GAMS," TMD discussion papers 75, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    20. Temesgen Tadesse Deressa & Rashid M. Hassan, 2009. "Economic Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production in Ethiopia: Evidence from Cross-section Measures," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 18(4), pages 529-554, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Melese Mulu Baylie & Csaba Fogarassy, 2022. "Decision Analysis of the Adaptation of Households to Extreme Floods Using an Extended Protection Motivation Framework—A Case Study from Ethiopia," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-20, October.
    2. Girma Mulugeta Emeru, 2022. "The perception and determinants of agricultural technology adaptation of teff producers to climate change in North Shewa zone, Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 2095766-209, December.
    3. Taye Tesfaye & Diptimayee Nayak, 2023. "Climate Change Adaptation Measures by Farm Households in Gedeo Zone, Ethiopia: An Application of Multivariate Analysis Approach," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 3183-3209, April.
    4. Sikha Karki & Paul Burton & Brendan Mackey & Clair Alston-Knox, 2021. "Status and drivers of food insecurity and adaptation responses under a changing climate among smallholder farmers households in Bagmati Province, Nepal," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(10), pages 14642-14665, October.
    5. Guo Ruo & Brhane Weldegebrial & Genet Yohannes & Gebremedhin Yohannes, 2018. "Climate Change Adaptation Practices by Ruminant Livestock Producer of in Hintalo Wajerat District Tigray Regional State, Northern Ethiopia," Biomedical Journal of Scientific & Technical Research, Biomedical Research Network+, LLC, vol. 11(5), pages 8809-8828, December.
    6. Alemu Mekonnen, 2014. "Economic Costs of Climate Change and Climate Finance with a Focus on Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 23(suppl_2), pages 50-82.
    7. Amsalu Woldie Yalew, 2016. "Economy-wide Effects of Climate Change in Ethiopia," EcoMod2016 9750, EcoMod.
    8. Hanadi Taher, 2019. "Climate Change and Economic Growth in Lebanon," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(5), pages 20-24.
    9. Jonathan E. Ogbuabor & Emmanuel I. Egwuchukwu, 2017. "The Impact of Climate Change on the Nigerian Economy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 217-223.
    10. Steve Bass & Shannon Siyao Wang & Tadele Ferede & Daniel Fikreyesus, 2013. "Making Growth Green and Inclusive: The Case of Ethiopia," OECD Green Growth Papers 2013/7, OECD Publishing.
    11. Melese Mulu Baylie & Csaba Fogarassy, 2021. "Examining the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Net Crop Income in the Ethiopian Nile Basin: A Ricardian Fixed Effect Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-16, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gebreegziabher, Zenebe & Stage, Jesper & Mekonnen, Alemu & Alemu, Atlaw, 2016. "Climate change and the Ethiopian economy: a CGE analysis," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(2), pages 205-225, April.
    2. Gebreegziabher, Zenebe & Mekonnen, Alemu & Deribe, Rahel & Abera, Samuel & Kassahun, Meseret Molla, 2013. "Crop-Livestock Inter-linkages and Climate Change Implications for Ethiopia’s Agriculture: A Ricardian Approach," RFF Working Paper Series dp-13-14-efd, Resources for the Future.
    3. Isaure Delaporte & Mathilde Maurel, 2018. "Adaptation to climate change in Bangladesh," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 49-62, January.
    4. Byela Tibesigwa & Martine Visser & Jane Turpie, 2017. "Climate change and South Africa’s commercial farms: an assessment of impacts on specialised horticulture, crop, livestock and mixed farming systems," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 607-636, April.
    5. Bezabih, Mintewab & Chambwera, Muyeye & Stage, Jesper, 2010. "Climate Change, Total Factor Productivity, and the Tanzanian Economy: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," RFF Working Paper Series dp-10-14-efd, Resources for the Future.
    6. Robert Becker Pickson & Ge He, 2021. "Smallholder Farmers’ Perceptions, Adaptation Constraints, and Determinants of Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change in Chengdu," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, July.
    7. Julius Kotir, 2011. "Climate change and variability in Sub-Saharan Africa: a review of current and future trends and impacts on agriculture and food security," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 587-605, June.
    8. Zhou, Li & Turvey, Calum G., 2014. "Climate change, adaptation and China's grain production," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 72-89.
    9. Salvatore Falco & Marcella Veronesi, 2018. "Managing Environmental Risk in Presence of Climate Change: The Role of Adaptation in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia," Natural Resource Management and Policy, in: Leslie Lipper & Nancy McCarthy & David Zilberman & Solomon Asfaw & Giacomo Branca (ed.), Climate Smart Agriculture, pages 497-526, Springer.
    10. McCarl, Bruce A. & Attavanich, Witsanu & Musumba, Mark & Mu, Jianhong E. & Aisabokhae, Ruth, 2011. "Land Use and Climate Change," MPRA Paper 83993, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.
    11. Tanimonure, Victoria Adeyemi, 2021. "Impact of Climate Adaptation Strategies on the Net Farm Revenue of Underutilized Indigenous Vegetables’ (UIVs) Production in Southwest Nigeria," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315903, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    12. Carlo Fezzi & Ian Bateman, 2015. "The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture: Nonlinear Effects and Aggregation Bias in Ricardian Models of Farmland Values," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(1), pages 57-92.
    13. Jonathan E. Ogbuabor & Emmanuel I. Egwuchukwu, 2017. "The Impact of Climate Change on the Nigerian Economy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(2), pages 217-223.
    14. Montaud, Jean-Marc & Pecastaing, Nicolas & Tankari, Mahamadou, 2017. "Potential socio-economic implications of future climate change and variability for Nigerien agriculture: A countrywide dynamic CGE-Microsimulation analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 128-142.
    15. Charles Fant & Adam Schlosser, 2013. "The Impact of Climate Change on Wind and Solar Resources in Southern Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2013-071, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    16. Asfaw, Solomon & Scognamillo, Antonio & Caprera, Gloria Di & Sitko, Nicholas & Ignaciuk, Adriana, 2019. "Heterogeneous impact of livelihood diversification on household welfare: Cross-country evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 278-295.
    17. Tamiru Bezabih Sisay, 2020. "Debre Tabor University Faculty of social Sciences. Debre Tabor, Ethiopia," Agricultural Research & Technology: Open Access Journal, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 25(1), pages 5-13, August.
    18. Solomon Asfaw & Nancy McCarthy & Leslie Lipper & Aslihan Arslan & Andrea Cattaneo, 2016. "What determines farmers’ adaptive capacity? Empirical evidence from Malawi," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 8(3), pages 643-664, June.
    19. Zeenatul Islam & Mohammad Alauddin & Md. Abdur Rashid Sarker, 2017. "Farmers’ perception on climate change-driven rice production loss in drought-prone and groundwater-depleted areas of Bangladesh: An ordered probit analysis," Discussion Papers Series 579, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    20. Mirza Nouman Ali Talib & Masood Ahmed & Mirza Muhammad Naseer & Beata Slusarczyk & József Popp, 2021. "The Long-Run Impacts of Temperature and Rainfall on Agricultural Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-16, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; computable general equilibrium; agriculture; Ethiopia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-11-09-efd. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Resources for the Future (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rffffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.