What determines farmers’ adaptive capacity? Empirical evidence from Malawi

This paper assesses farmers’ incentives and conditioning factors that hinder or promote adaptation strategies and evaluates their impact on crop productivity by using data from nationally representative sample households in Malawi. We employed multivariate probit (MVP) and multinomial treatment effect (MTE) techniques to model adoption decisions and their yield impact. Exposure to delayed onset of rainfall and greater climate variability was positively associated with the choice of risk-reducing agricultural practices such as tree planting, legume intercropping, and soil and water conservation (SWC) but reduced the use of inputs (such as inorganic fertilizer) whose risk reduction benefits are uncertain. Concerning household adaptive capacity, wealthier households were more likely to adopt both modern and sustainable land management (SLM) inputs and were more likely to adopt SLM inputs on plots that were under greater security of tenure. In terms of system-level adaptive capacity, rural institutions, social capital and supply-side constraints were key in governing selection decisions for all practices considered, but particularly for tree planting and both organic and inorganic fertilizer applications. A combination of practices gave rise to higher yields suggesting that this might be a course of action that would sustain growth of yield in Malawi in the future.