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Climate change and the Ethiopian economy: a CGE analysis

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  • Gebreegziabher, Zenebe
  • Stage, Jesper
  • Mekonnen, Alemu
  • Alemu, Atlaw

Abstract

The paper analyzes the economic impacts of climate change-induced fluctuations on the performance of Ethiopia's agriculture, using a countrywide computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We model the impacts on agriculture using a Ricardian model, where current agricultural production is modelled as a function of temperature and precipitation, among other things, and where future agriculture is assumed to follow the same climate function. The effect of overall climate change is projected to be relatively benign until approximately 2030, but will become considerably worse thereafter. Our simulation results indicate that, over a 50-year period, the projected reduction in agricultural productivity may lead to reductions in average income of some 20 per cent compared with the outcome that would have prevailed in the absence of climate change. This indicates that adaptation policies – both government planned and those that ease autonomous adaptation by farmers – will be crucial for Ethiopia's future development.

Suggested Citation

  • Gebreegziabher, Zenebe & Stage, Jesper & Mekonnen, Alemu & Alemu, Atlaw, 2016. "Climate change and the Ethiopian economy: a CGE analysis," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(2), pages 205-225, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:endeec:v:21:y:2016:i:02:p:205-225_00
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Deressa, Temesgen Tadesse, 2007. "Measuring the economic impact of climate change on Ethiopian agriculture : Ricardian approach," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4342, The World Bank.
    2. Channing Arndt & Kenneth Strzepek & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow & Charles Fant & Len Tiu Wright, 2010. "Adapting to Climate Change: An Integrated Biophysical and Economic Assessment for Mozambique," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2010-101, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Robert Mendelsohn & Ariel Dinar, 2009. "Climate Change and Agriculture," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12990.
    4. World Bank, 2008. "Ethiopia - A Country Study on the Economic Impacts of Climate Change," World Bank Publications - Reports 8030, The World Bank Group.
    5. S. Seo & Robert Mendelsohn & Ariel Dinar & Rashid Hassan & Pradeep Kurukulasuriya, 2009. "A Ricardian Analysis of the Distribution of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture across Agro-Ecological Zones in Africa," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 313-332, July.
    6. -, 2009. "The economics of climate change," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38679, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
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    Cited by:

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    4. Montaud, Jean-Marc & Pecastaing, Nicolas & Tankari, Mahamadou, 2017. "Potential socio-economic implications of future climate change and variability for Nigerien agriculture: A countrywide dynamic CGE-Microsimulation analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 128-142.
    5. Davide Bazzana & Aidin Mobasser & Sergio Vergalli, 2022. "Less Water, Less Oil: Policy Response for the Kenyan Future, a CGE Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-26, September.
    6. Escalante, Luis Enrique & Maisonnave, Helene, 2022. "Impacts of climate disasters on women and food security in Bolivia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    7. Adam M. Komarek & James Thurlow & Jawoo Koo & Alessandro De Pinto, 2019. "Economywide effects of climate‐smart agriculture in Ethiopia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 50(6), pages 765-778, November.
    8. Bazzana, Davide & Gilioli, Gianni & Simane, Belay & Zaitchik, Benjamin, 2021. "Analyzing constraints in the water-energy-food nexus: The case of eucalyptus plantation in Ethiopia," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    9. Bazzana, Davide & Zaitchik, Benjamin & Gilioli, Gianni, 2020. "Impact of water and energy infrastructure on local well-being: an agent-based analysis of the water-energy-food nexus," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 165-176.
    10. Daregot Berihun & Passel Steven, 2022. "Climate variability and macroeconomic output in Ethiopia: the analysis of nexus and impact via asymmetric autoregressive distributive lag cointegration method," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 4064-4087, March.
    11. Amsalu Woldie Yalew & Georg Hirte & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Stefan Tscharaktschiew, 2019. "The Synergies and Trade-Offs of Planned Adaptation in Agriculture: a General Equilibrium Analysis for Ethiopia," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 213-233, October.

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