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Farmers’ perception on climate change-driven rice production loss in drought-prone and groundwater-depleted areas of Bangladesh: An ordered probit analysis

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The existing literature pays inadequate attention to any rigorous analysis of perceived severity of climate-driven crop losses, their determinants and implications. The present study fills this gap in three ways. It investigates farmers’ perception about the severity of loss for three rice crops, identifies their determinants and explores policy implications. In doing so, it employs an ordered probit model to data from 1,800 farm households from districts typifying drought- prone and groundwater depleted areas of Bangladesh. Perceived severity of rice production losses was not uniform for all rice crops being higher for the rain-fed crops and appeared broadly consistent with available evidence. Severity of perceived crop loss was associated with geophysical factors, household characteristics, institutional and market accessibility, and household adaptation strategy. Household resource endowment had no perceptible effect on production loss. The impact of these factors was specific to the crop and severity of perceived loss. This study has several policy implications involving market, R & D and institutional support based options. Strengthening support systems for institutional and market accessibility, and science driven adaptation strategy including generation and wider dissemination of drought tolerant rice varieties, and enhancing farmers’ capacity to change rice varieties on a regular basis constitute focal areas.

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  • Zeenatul Islam & Mohammad Alauddin & Md. Abdur Rashid Sarker, 2017. "Farmers’ perception on climate change-driven rice production loss in drought-prone and groundwater-depleted areas of Bangladesh: An ordered probit analysis," Discussion Papers Series 579, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:qld:uq2004:579
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Loss severity; Ground water depletion; Drought severity; Ordered probit; Accessibility; Adaptation strategy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions

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