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The Power of (Non) Positive Thinking: Self-Employed Pessimists Earn More than Optimists

Author

Listed:
  • Dawson, Christopher

    (University of Bath)

  • de Meza, David Emmanuel

    (London School of Economics)

  • Henley, Andrew

    (Cardiff University)

  • Arabsheibani, Reza

    (London School of Economics)

Abstract

Developing further the accumulating evidence that self-employment attracts optimists, this paper investigates the relationship between earnings and prior optimism. It finds that self-employed optimists earn less than self-employed realists. Amongst employees, optimists earn more. These results are consistent with biased expectations leading to entry errors. As a test of validity, we find that amongst the married, future divorcees have higher financial expectations but their realisations are no worse, suggesting our optimism measure captures an intrinsic psychological trait associated with rash decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Dawson, Christopher & de Meza, David Emmanuel & Henley, Andrew & Arabsheibani, Reza, 2015. "The Power of (Non) Positive Thinking: Self-Employed Pessimists Earn More than Optimists," IZA Discussion Papers 9242, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9242
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ferrando-Latorre, Sandra & Velilla, Jorge, 2018. "La transmisión intergeneracional de la actividad emprendedora en las familias españolas [Intergeneration transmissions of the entrepreneurial activity in Spanish households]," MPRA Paper 83573, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Luca David Opromolla & Michele Dell'Era, 2018. "A General Equilibrium Theory of Occupational Choice under Optimistic Beliefs about Entrepreneurial Ability," Working Papers w201822, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    3. Molina, Jose Alberto & Ortega, Raquel & Velilla, Jorge, 2017. "Older entrepreneurs-by-necessity using fuzzy set methods: differences between developed and developing countries," MPRA Paper 76982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Michele Dell'Era & Luca David Opromolla & Luís Santos‐Pinto, 2023. "Can optimism solve the entrepreneurial earnings puzzle?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 125(1), pages 139-169, January.
    5. Velilla, Jorge, 2021. "Regional and national results on entrepreneurship using GEM data," MPRA Paper 110323, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Peter Schwardmann & Joël van der Weele, 2016. "Deception and Self-Deception," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-012/I, Tinbergen Institute.
    7. Gascón Salillas, Patricia, 2020. "La actividad emprendedora: Análisis transversal en la Comunidad Foral de Navarra [Entrepreneurship activity: Cross-sectional analysis in the Region of Navarra]," MPRA Paper 99386, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Velilla, Jorge, 2018. "The entrepreneurial activity using GEM data: evidence for Spain (national and regional) and for Europe," MPRA Paper 85568, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. J. Ignacio, Giménez-Nadal & Jose Alberto, Molina & Jorge, Velilla, 2017. "Leisure and effort at work: incorporating self-employment into urban markets," MPRA Paper 77972, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Sander Hoogendoorn & Simon C. Parker & Mirjam van Praag, 2017. "Smart or Diverse Start-up Teams? Evidence from a Field Experiment," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 28(6), pages 1010-1028, December.
    11. Martin Koudstaal & Randolph Sloof & Mirjam van Praag, 2015. "Are Entrepreneurs more Optimistic and Overconfident than Managers and Employees?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-124/VII, Tinbergen Institute.
    12. Molina, Jose Alberto & Velilla, Jorge & Ortega, Raquel, 2015. "The decision to become an entrepreneur in Spain: The role of the household financial situation," MPRA Paper 68101, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Jorge, Velilla, 2017. "Feminization of entrepreneurship in developing countries? Evidence from GEM data," MPRA Paper 79997, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Velilla, Jorge & Molina, José Alberto & Ortega, Raquel, 2018. "Why older workers become entrepreneurs? International evidence using fuzzy set methods," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 88-95.
    15. Molina, Jose Alberto & Velilla, Jorge & Ortega, Raquel, 2016. "Entrepreneurial activity in the OECD: Pooled and cross-country evidence," MPRA Paper 71592, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Gimenez-Nadal, José Ignacio & Molina, José Alberto & Velilla, Jorge, 2016. "A Wage-Efficiency Spatial Model for US Self-Employed Workers," IZA Discussion Papers 9634, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Molina, Jose Alberto & Velilla, Jorge, 2016. "La innovación como determinante pare el emprendimiento [Innovation as determinant of entrepreneurship]," MPRA Paper 71471, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    self-employment; expectations; financial optimism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • M13 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Administration - - - New Firms; Startups

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