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Proxy structural vector autoregressions, informational sufficiency and the role of monetary policy

Author

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  • Mirela S. Miescu

    (Lancaster University)

  • Haroon Mumtaz

    (Queen Mary University of London)

Abstract

We show that the contemporaneous and longer horizon impulse responses estimated using small-scale Proxy structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) can be severely biased in the presence of information insufficiency. Instead, we recommend the use of a Proxy Factor Augmented VAR (FAVAR) model that remains robust in the presence of this problem. In an empirical exercise, we demonstrate that this issue has important consequences for the estimated impact of monetary policy shocks in the US. We find that the impulse responses of real activity and prices estimated using a Proxy FAVAR are substantially larger and more persistent than those suggested by a small-scale Proxy SVAR.

Suggested Citation

  • Mirela S. Miescu & Haroon Mumtaz, 2019. "Proxy structural vector autoregressions, informational sufficiency and the role of monetary policy," Working Papers 894, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:894
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Davide Brignone & Alessandro Franconi & Marco Mazzali, 2023. "Robust Impulse Responses using External Instruments: the Role of Information," Papers 2307.06145, arXiv.org.
    2. Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2020. "Monetary policy and wealth inequality over the great recession in the UK. An empirical analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    3. Giorgia De Nora, 2021. "Factor Augmented Vector-Autoregression with narrative identification. An application to monetary policy in the US," Working Papers 934, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    4. Stefano Fasani & Haroon Mumtaz & Lorenza Rossi, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Firm Dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 47, pages 278-296, January.
    5. Wenting Liao & Jun Ma & Chengsi Zhang, 2023. "Identifying exchange rate effects and spillovers of US monetary policy shocks in the presence of time‐varying instrument relevance," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 989-1006, November.
    6. De Nora, Giorgia, 2023. "Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression with narrative identification. An application to monetary policy in the US," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    7. Laumer, Sebastian & Violaris, Andreas-Entony, 2024. "Unconventional monetary policy and policy foresight," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    8. Bruns, Martin, 2021. "Proxy Vector Autoregressions in a Data-rich Environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    information sufficiency; dynamic factor models; instrumental variables; monetary policy; structural VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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