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Sufficient information in structural VARs

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  • Forni, Mario
  • Gambetti, Luca

Abstract

Necessary and sufficient conditions under which a VAR contains sufficient information to estimate the structural shocks are derived. On the basis of this theoretical result we propose two simple tests to detect informational deficiency and a procedure to amend a deficient VAR. A simulation based on a DSGE model with fiscal foresight suggests that our method correctly identifies and fixes the informational problem. In an empirical application, we show that a bivariate VAR including unemployment and labor productivity is informationally deficient. Once the relevant information is included into the model, technology shocks appear to be contractionary.

Suggested Citation

  • Forni, Mario & Gambetti, Luca, 2014. "Sufficient information in structural VARs," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 124-136.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:66:y:2014:i:c:p:124-136
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2014.04.005
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Non-fundamentalness; FAVAR models; ABCD representation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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