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Investor Sentiment and Dollar-Pound Exchange Rate Returns: Evidence from Over a Century of Data Using a Cross-Quantilogram Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad

    (Montpellier Business School, Montpellier, France and South Ural State University, Chelyabinsk, Russian Federation)

  • Clement Kweku Kyei

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa)

  • Eric Olson

    (College of Business Finance, Operations Management and International Business, University of Tulsa, Tulsa, Oklahoma, United States)

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the cross-quantile dependence between investor sentiment and exchange rate returns using an extreme quantile approach and based on daily data covering the period January 4, 1905 to January 3, 2006. As a proxy of investor sentiment, we use the bull (positive) minus bear (negative) spread of the sentiment measure constructed by Garcia (2013). We find that the lower quantiles of investor sentiment have a positive and significant effect on the quantiles of dollar-pound exchange rate returns. However, the sign of dependence is reversed for the median to higher quantiles of the distribution of the sentiment. Our finding holds even after controlling for the performance of the equity market, and provides additional evidence that investor sentiment can augment conventional predictors with respect to the future evolution of exchange rate returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Clement Kweku Kyei & Rangan Gupta & Eric Olson, 2020. "Investor Sentiment and Dollar-Pound Exchange Rate Returns: Evidence from Over a Century of Data Using a Cross-Quantilogram Approach," Working Papers 202008, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:202008
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    Cited by:

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    4. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Rangan Gupta & Riza Demirer & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022. "Oil shocks and directional predictability of macroeconomic uncertainties of developed economies: Evidence from high‐frequency data†," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(2), pages 169-185, May.
    5. Zhang, Jiahao & Chen, Xiaodan & Wei, Yu & Bai, Lan, 2023. "Does the connectedness among fossil energy returns matter for renewable energy stock returns? Fresh insights from the Cross-Quantilogram analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    6. Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Sohag, Kazi & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2024. "Oil shocks and financial stability in MENA countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    7. Liu, Yiye & Han, Liyan & Wu, You & Yin, Libo, 2022. "Do terrorist attacks matter for currency excess returns?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate; quantile dependence; investor sentiment; behavioral finance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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