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What determines the exchange rate: economic factors or market sentiment?

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  • Gregory P. Hopper

Abstract

Do economic factors influence exchange rates? Or does market sentiment play a bigger role? Are short-run exchange rates predictable? Greg Hopper reviews exchange-rate economics, focusing on what is predictable and what isn't. He also examines the practical implications of exchange-rate theories for currency option pricing, risk management, and portfolio selection.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory P. Hopper, 1997. "What determines the exchange rate: economic factors or market sentiment?," Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Sep, pages 17-29.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpbr:y:1997:i:sep:p:17-29
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sweeney, Richard J, 1986. "Beating the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(1), pages 163-182, March.
    2. repec:bla:scandj:v:78:y:1976:i:2:p:200-224 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohamed Aslam, 2012. "Exchange Rate Policy in Developing Countries: The East Asian Experience," Chapters, in: Claude Gnos & Louis-Philippe Rochon & Domenica Tropeano (ed.), Employment, Growth and Development, chapter 8, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Omotosho, Babatunde S. & Tumala, Mohammed M., 2019. "A Text Mining Analysis of Central Bank Monetary Policy Communication in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 98850, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Rotheli, Tobias F., 2002. "Bandwagon effects and run patterns in exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 157-166, April.
    4. Omotosho, Babatunde S., 2020. "Central Bank Communication during Economic Recessions: Evidence from Nigeria," MPRA Paper 99655, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Kyei, Clement Kweku & Gupta, Rangan & Olson, Eric, 2021. "Investor sentiment and dollar-pound exchange rate returns: Evidence from over a century of data using a cross-quantilogram approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    6. Katusiime, Lorna & Shamsuddin, Abul & Agbola, Frank W., 2015. "Macroeconomic and market microstructure modelling of Ugandan exchange rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 175-186.

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    Keywords

    Foreign exchange rates;

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