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Investor sentiment and the dispersion of stock returns: Evidence based on the social network of investors

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  • Al-Nasseri, Alya
  • Menla Ali, Faek
  • Tucker, Allan

Abstract

This paper extracts an investor sentiment indicator for the 30 DJIA stocks based on the textual classification of 289,024 online tweets posted on the so-called StockTwits, and examines its contemporaneous and predictability effects on the dispersion of stock returns using the quantile regression technique. We find that both contemporaneous and predictability effects of sentiment are heterogeneous throughout the return distribution. Specifically, sentiment is positively contemporaneously associated with stock returns at higher quantiles. However, it is a strong negative predictor of future returns at lower quantiles. Overall, our findings are broadly consistent with most behavioural theories and show that sentiment mainly affects the valuation of assets in extreme market conditions.

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  • Al-Nasseri, Alya & Menla Ali, Faek & Tucker, Allan, 2021. "Investor sentiment and the dispersion of stock returns: Evidence based on the social network of investors," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:78:y:2021:i:c:s1057521921002362
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2021.101910
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    7. Tran, Vu Le, 2023. "Sentiment and covariance characteristics," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    8. Junxiao Gui & Nathee Naktnasukanjn & Xi Yu & Siva Shankar Ramasamy, 2024. "Research on the Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Investor Sentiment on the Growth Enterprise Market Return in China—An Empirical Study Based on TVP-SV-VAR Model," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-20, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investor sentiment; StockTwits; Stock returns; Quantile regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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