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Countering Terror Cells: Offence versus Defence

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  • Bhan, Aditya
  • Kabiraj, Tarun

Abstract

The analysis provides insights regarding the suitability of offensive versus defensive measures in countering a terror cell. It is shown that the optimal allocation is more offensive when the cell is aware of which targets have been protected, but unable to distinguish between the values of different targets; than the case where it can neither distinguish between target values nor is the protection conspicuous. Also, the ability of the terror cell to inflict damage is least when it can neither distinguish between target values nor is the target protection conspicuous, and most when it can observe both target values and protection. Hence, from the counter-terrorism (CT) point of view, there seems to be a rationale in making target values and target protection inconspicuous to the extent possible. The paper finally deals with the possibility of diverging target valuations from the CT standpoint and that of the terror cell, and shows that if target protection is conspicuous to the cell and these are common knowledge, then the optimal CT allocation is at least as offensive as the case with identical valuation rankings.

Suggested Citation

  • Bhan, Aditya & Kabiraj, Tarun, 2018. "Countering Terror Cells: Offence versus Defence," MPRA Paper 88873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:88873
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/88873/1/MPRA_paper_88873.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Walter Enders & Paan Jindapon, 2010. "Network Externalities and the Structure of Terror Networks," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(2), pages 262-280, April.
    2. Subhayu Bandyopadhyay & Todd Sandler, 2011. "The Interplay Between Preemptive and Defensive Counterterrorism Measures: A Two‐stage Game," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(311), pages 546-564, July.
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    4. Vicki Bier & Santiago Oliveros & Larry Samuelson, 2007. "Choosing What to Protect: Strategic Defensive Allocation against an Unknown Attacker," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 9(4), pages 563-587, August.
    5. Walter Enders & Xuejuan Su, 2007. "Rational Terrorists and Optimal Network Structure," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 51(1), pages 33-57, February.
    6. Todd Sandler & Kevin Siqueira, 2006. "Global terrorism: deterrence versus pre‐emption," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 1370-1387, November.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    : terror cell; offensive and defensive measures; target value; target protection; counter-terrorism.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C70 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - General
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism

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