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What have we learned? Assessing the effectiveness of counterterrorism strategies in Pakistan

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  • Rehman, Faiz Ur
  • Nasir, Muhammad
  • Shahbaz, Muhammad

Abstract

This paper empirically examines the effectiveness of various counterinsurgency policies employed in Pakistan. The literature suggests that any counterinsurgency strategy can have three effects: deterrence, incapacitation, and vengeance. Violence will increase if the vengeance effect outweighs the deterrence and incapacitation effects; if the deterrence and incapacitation effects are dominant, the reverse is true. Pakistan has used three types of counterinsurgency measures to curb violence: peace accords, military operations, and a combination of military assaults (operation Zarb-e-Azb) and the National Action Plan (NAP). Using data for the period 1974m1-2015m12, the results from Negative Binomial Regression models suggest that peace accords have no significant effect on violence, whereas military operations increase violence, suggesting the dominance of the vengeance effect. On the other hand, operation Zarb-e-Azb, complemented by the National Action Plan, generated a strong incapacitation effect, leading to a significant reduction in violence. The results are robust, and even stronger, for a subsample of the post-9/11 period. These findings support the notion that an effective counterterrorism strategy requires a well-executed military operation backed by strong political support.

Suggested Citation

  • Rehman, Faiz Ur & Nasir, Muhammad & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2017. "What have we learned? Assessing the effectiveness of counterterrorism strategies in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 487-495.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:487-495
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2017.02.028
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    Cited by:

    1. Arvate, Paulo & Souza, André Portela, 2022. "Armed police and violence: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in Brazil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    2. Muhammad Athar Nadeem & Zhiying Liu & Yi Xu & Kishwar Nawaz & Muhammad Yousaf Malik & Amna Younis, 2020. "Impacts of terrorism, governance structure, military expenditures and infrastructures upon tourism: empirical evidence from an emerging economy," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(1), pages 185-206, March.
    3. Mubashra, Sana & Shafi, Mariuam i, 2018. "The Impact of Counter-terrorism Effectiveness on Economic Growth of Pakistan: An Econometric Analysis," MPRA Paper 84847, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Terrorism; Counterterrorism; Deterrence; Pakistan; Military operation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • Z10 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - General

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