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Rational Terrorists and Optimal Network Structure

Author

Listed:
  • Walter Enders

    (Department of Economics, Finance and Legal Studies, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa)

  • Xuejuan Su

    (Department of Economics, Finance and Legal Studies, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa)

Abstract

After the events of 9/11, U.S. counterterrorism became more proactive in that the Patriot Act allowed the authorities far more freedom to directly attack terrorist network structures. We argue that rational terrorists will attempt to thwart such policies and restructure themselves to be less penetrable. We model the trade-off between security and intragroup communication faced by terrorists. The model is used to derive the anticipated changes in network structure and the consequent changes in the type, complexity, and success rate of potential terrorist attacks.

Suggested Citation

  • Walter Enders & Xuejuan Su, 2007. "Rational Terrorists and Optimal Network Structure," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 51(1), pages 33-57, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:51:y:2007:i:1:p:33-57
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002706296155
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ethan Bueno De Mesquita, 2005. "The Quality of Terror," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(3), pages 515-530, July.
    2. Joao Ricardo Faria & Daniel Arce, 2005. "Terror Support And Recruitment," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 263-273.
    3. Enders, Walter & Sandler, Todd, 1993. "The Effectiveness of Antiterrorism Policies: A Vector-Autoregression-Intervention Analysis," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(4), pages 829-844, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hinkkainen Kaisa, 2013. "Homegrown Terrorism: The Known Unknown," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 157-182, August.
    2. Bhan, Aditya & Kabiraj, Tarun, 2018. "Countering Terror Cells: Offence versus Defence," MPRA Paper 88873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Lindelauf, R. & Borm, P.E.M. & Hamers, H.J.M., 2010. "One-Mode Projection Analysis and Design of Covert Affiliation Networks," Other publications TiSEM 22cf26dc-7fbc-431d-967f-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Villani, Salvatore & Mosca, Michele & Castiello, Mauro, 2019. "A virtuous combination of structural and skill analysis to defeat organized crime," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 51-65.
    5. Alexandra-Maria Bocse, 0. "Hybrid transnational advocacy networks in environmental protection: banning the use of cyanide in European gold mining," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-19.
    6. Mauro Castiello & Michele Mosca & Salvatore Villani, 2015. "Analisi di resilienza delle reti complesse ed efficacia delle politiche pubbliche di contrasto alla criminalit? organizzata," STUDI ECONOMICI, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2015(116), pages 39-73.
    7. McBride, Michael & Hewitt, David, 2013. "The enemy you can’t see: An investigation of the disruption of dark networks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 32-50.
    8. Husslage, B.G.M. & Lindelauf, R. & Hamers, H.J.M., 2012. "Leaderless Covert Networks : A Quantitative Approach," Discussion Paper 2012-057, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    9. Lindelauf, R. & Borm, P.E.M. & Hamers, H.J.M., 2009. "Understanding Terrorist Network Topologies and Their Resilience Against Disruption," Other publications TiSEM 0469c068-22ad-4521-8d87-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. B. Hoyer, 2012. "Network Disruption and the Common Enemy Effect," Working Papers 12-06, Utrecht School of Economics.
    11. Walter Enders & Paan Jindapon, 2010. "Network Externalities and the Structure of Terror Networks," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(2), pages 262-280, April.
    12. Ozgul, Fatih, 2016. "Analysis of topologies and key players in terrorist networks," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 40-54.
    13. Ho-Chun Herbert Chang & Brooke Harrington & Feng Fu & Daniel Rockmore, 2023. "Complex Systems of Secrecy: The Offshore Networks of Oligarchs," Papers 2303.03371, arXiv.org.
    14. Lindelauf, R. & Borm, P.E.M. & Hamers, H.J.M., 2010. "One-Mode Projection Analysis and Design of Covert Affiliation Networks," Discussion Paper 2010-53, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    15. Todd Sandler, 2010. "Terrorism and Policy: Introduction," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 54(2), pages 203-213, April.
    16. Hinkkainen, Kaisa, 2012. "Homegrown terrorism; the known unknown," NEPS Working Papers 1/2012, Network of European Peace Scientists.
    17. Jana Diesner & Kathleen M. Carley & Laurent Tambayong, 2012. "Extracting socio-cultural networks of the Sudan from open-source, large-scale text data," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 328-339, September.
    18. Lindelauf, R. & Borm, P.E.M. & Hamers, H.J.M., 2009. "Understanding Terrorist Network Topologies and Their Resilience Against Disruption," Discussion Paper 2009-85, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    19. Alexandra-Maria Bocse, 2021. "Hybrid transnational advocacy networks in environmental protection: banning the use of cyanide in European gold mining," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 285-303, June.
    20. Husslage, B.G.M. & Lindelauf, R. & Hamers, H.J.M., 2012. "Leaderless Covert Networks : A Quantitative Approach," Other publications TiSEM c4111fba-0f6c-42cd-976a-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    21. Bradley E. Holland & Viridiana Rios, 2017. "Informally Governing Information: How Criminal Rivalry Leads to Violence against the Press in Mexico," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 61(5), pages 1095-1119, May.

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