IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/75994.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Price dependence between coffee qualities: a copula model to evaluate asymmetric responses

Author

Listed:
  • Stavrakoudis, Athanassios
  • Panagiotou, Dimitrios

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to assess the degree and the structure of price dependence between different coffee qualities of the Arabica and Robusta varieties. This is pursued using the statistical tool of copulas and monthly price data for the period 1990:1{2014:12. Our results reveal evidence of asymmetric price dependence between the pairs Brazilian-Robusta, Brazilian-Others and Robusta-Others, since price booms and price crashes are transmitted with different probabilities between these pairs of coffee qualities. For the pairs Brazilian-Colombian, Colombian-Robusta and Colombian-Others there is no evidence of asymmetric price dependence. The empirical findings of this article indicate that the probability that fairtrade coffee producers will see a price crash in the Robusta variety being transmitted to the coffee qualities of the Arabica variety is either zero or much lower than the probability of the transmission of a price boom.

Suggested Citation

  • Stavrakoudis, Athanassios & Panagiotou, Dimitrios, 2016. "Price dependence between coffee qualities: a copula model to evaluate asymmetric responses," MPRA Paper 75994, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:75994
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/75994/1/MPRA_paper_75994.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pavel Vavra & Barry K. Goodwin, 2005. "Analysis of Price Transmission Along the Food Chain," OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries Papers 3, OECD Publishing.
    2. Mehta, Aashish & Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2008. "Responding to the coffee crisis: What can we learn from price dynamics?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 282-311, February.
    3. Daniel Berg, 2009. "Copula goodness-of-fit testing: an overview and power comparison," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7-8), pages 675-701.
    4. Jochen Meyer & Stephan von Cramon‐Taubadel, 2004. "Asymmetric Price Transmission: A Survey," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 581-611, November.
    5. Brechmann, Eike Christian & Schepsmeier, Ulf, 2013. "Modeling Dependence with C- and D-Vine Copulas: The R Package CDVine," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 52(i03).
    6. Hans Manner & Olga Reznikova, 2012. "A Survey on Time-Varying Copulas: Specification, Simulations, and Application," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 654-687, November.
    7. David Ubilava, 2012. "El Niño, La Niña, and world coffee price dynamics," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 43(1), pages 17-26, January.
    8. Hafner, Christian M. & Reznikova, Olga, 2012. "On the estimation of dynamic conditional correlation models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3533-3545.
    9. Yan, Jun, 2007. "Enjoy the Joy of Copulas: With a Package copula," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 21(i04).
    10. Zoltán Bakucs & Jan Fałkowski & Imre Fertő, 2014. "Does Market Structure Influence Price Transmission in the Agro-food Sector? A Meta-analysis Perspective," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(1), pages 1-25, January.
    11. Mehta, A. & Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2008. "Responding to the Coffee Crisis: What We Can Learn from Price Dynamics," Working Papers 201444, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Food System Research Group.
    12. Jing Zhang & Dominique Guegan, 2008. "Pricing bivariate option under GARCH processes with time-varying copula," Post-Print halshs-00286054, HAL.
    13. Chen, Xiaohong & Fan, Yanqin, 2006. "Estimation of copula-based semiparametric time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 307-335, February.
    14. Ponte, Stefano, 2002. "The 'Latte Revolution'? Regulation, Markets and Consumption in the Global Coffee Chain," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1099-1122, July.
    15. Christos J. Emmanouilides & Panos Fousekis, 2015. "Vertical price dependence structures: copula-based evidence from the beef supply chain in the USA," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 42(1), pages 77-97.
    16. Bill Russell & Sushil Mohan & Anindya Banerjee, 2012. "Coffee Market Liberalisation and the Implications for Producers in Brazil, Guatemala and India," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 26(3), pages 514-538.
    17. Dimitrios Panagiotou & Athanassios Stavrakoudis, 2015. "Price asymmetry between different pork cuts in the USA: a copula approach," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-8, December.
    18. Nash, John C. & Varadhan, Ravi, 2011. "Unifying Optimization Algorithms to Aid Software System Users: optimx for R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 43(i09).
    19. Zhang, J. & Guégan, D., 2008. "Pricing bivariate option under GARCH processes with time-varying copula," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 1095-1103, June.
    20. Giliola Frey & Matteo Manera, 2007. "Econometric Models Of Asymmetric Price Transmission," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 349-415, April.
    21. Atanu Ghoshray, 2009. "On Price Dynamics for Different Qualities of Coffee," Review of Market Integration, India Development Foundation, vol. 1(1), pages 103-118, April.
    22. Nash, John C., 2014. "On Best Practice Optimization Methods in R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 60(i02).
    23. Adam P. Wilson & Norbert L.W. Wilson, 2014. "The economics of quality in the specialty coffee industry: insights from the Cup of Excellence auction programs," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 45(S1), pages 91-105, November.
    24. Kilian, Bernard & Jones, Connie & Pratt, Lawrence & Villalobos, Andres, 2006. "Is sustainable agriculture a viable strategy to improve farm income in Central America? A case study on coffee," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 322-330, March.
    25. Gaißer, Sandra & Ruppert, Martin & Schmid, Friedrich, 2010. "A multivariate version of Hoeffding's Phi-Square," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 101(10), pages 2571-2586, November.
    26. Sukcharoen, Kunlapath & Zohrabyan, Tatevik & Leatham, David & Wu, Ximing, 2014. "Interdependence of oil prices and stock market indices: A copula approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 331-339.
    27. Reboredo, Juan C., 2011. "How do crude oil prices co-move?: A copula approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 948-955, September.
    28. Genest, Christian & Rémillard, Bruno & Beaudoin, David, 2009. "Goodness-of-fit tests for copulas: A review and a power study," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 199-213, April.
    29. Reboredo, Juan C., 2012. "Do food and oil prices co-move?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 456-467.
    30. Jing Zhang & Dominique Guegan, 2008. "Pricing bivariate option under GARCH processes with time-varying copula," Post-Print halshs-00259242, HAL.
    31. Johan F.M. Swinnen & Anneleen Vandeplas, 2014. "Price Transmission and Market Power in Modern Agricultural Value Chains," Working Papers id:5787, eSocialSciences.
    32. Dißmann, J. & Brechmann, E.C. & Czado, C. & Kurowicka, D., 2013. "Selecting and estimating regular vine copulae and application to financial returns," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 52-69.
    33. repec:lic:licosd:34714 is not listed on IDEAS
    34. Patton, Andrew J., 2012. "A review of copula models for economic time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 4-18.
    35. Acar, Elif F. & Genest, Christian & Nešlehová, Johanna, 2012. "Beyond simplified pair-copula constructions," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 74-90.
    36. Manner, H., 2007. "Estimation and model selection of copulas with an application to exchange rates," Research Memorandum 056, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stavrakoudis, Athanassios & Panagiotou, Dimitrios, 2016. "Price dependence and asymmetric responses between coffee varieties," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 17(2), June.
    2. Panagiotou Dimitrios & Stavrakoudis Athanassios, 2016. "Price Dependence between Different Beef Cuts and Quality Grades: A Copula Approach at the Retail Level for the U.S. Beef Industry," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 121-131, May.
    3. Panagiotou, Dimitrios & Stavrakoudis, Athanassios, 2017. "Vertical price relationships between different cuts and quality grades in the U.S. beef marketing channel: A wholesale-retail analysis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 53-63.
    4. GRIGORIADIS, Vasilis & EMMANOUILIDES, Christos & FOUSEKIS, Panos, 2016. "The Integration Of Pigmeat Markets In The Eu. Evidence From A Regular Mixed Vine Copula," Review of Agricultural and Applied Economics (RAAE), Faculty of Economics and Management, Slovak Agricultural University in Nitra, vol. 19(1), pages 1-10, March.
    5. Patton, Andrew J., 2012. "A review of copula models for economic time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 4-18.
    6. Aloui, Riadh & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2013. "A time-varying copula approach to oil and stock market dependence: The case of transition economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 208-221.
    7. Patton, Andrew, 2013. "Copula Methods for Forecasting Multivariate Time Series," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 899-960, Elsevier.
    8. Andrea Bastianin & Alessandro Lanza & Matteo Manera, 2018. "Economic impacts of El Niño southern oscillation: evidence from the Colombian coffee market," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(5), pages 623-633, September.
    9. Benos, Nikos & Stavrakoudis, Athanassios, 2022. "Okun's law: Copula-based evidence from G7 countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 478-491.
    10. Atanu Ghoshray & Sushil Mohan, 2021. "Coffee price dynamics: an analysis of the retail-international price margin [Commodity dependence and development: suggestions to tackle the commodities problem]," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 48(4), pages 983-1006.
    11. Dimitrios Panagiotou & Athanassios Stavrakoudis, 2023. "Price dependence among the major EU extra virgin olive oil markets: a time scale analysis," Review of Agricultural, Food and Environmental Studies, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 1-26, March.
    12. Maurizio Aragrande & Mauro Bruni & Alberico Loi & Roberto Esposti, 2017. "The effect of EU 2006 sugar regime reform on vertical price transmission," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-20, December.
    13. Fousekis, Panos & Katrakilidis, Constantinos & Trachanas, Emmanouil, 2016. "Vertical price transmission in the US beef sector: Evidence from the nonlinear ARDL model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 499-506.
    14. Holmes, Mark J. & Otero, Jesús, 2023. "Psychological price barriers, El Niño, La Niña: New insights for the case of coffee," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    15. Elena Claire Ricci & Massimo Peri & Lucia Baldi, 2019. "The Effects of Agricultural Price Instability on Vertical Price Transmission: A Study of the Wheat Chain in Italy," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-14, February.
    16. Omid Zamani & Thomas Bittmann & Jens‐Peter Loy, 2022. "The role of temperature for seasonal market integration: a case study of poultry in Iran," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(1), pages 187-215, January.
    17. Emmanuel Afuecheta & Saralees Nadarajah & Stephen Chan, 2021. "A Statistical Analysis of Global Economies Using Time Varying Copulas," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 58(4), pages 1167-1194, December.
    18. Barry K. Goodwin & Matthew T. Holt & Gülcan Önel & Jeffrey P. Prestemon, 2018. "Copula-based nonlinear modeling of the law of one price for lumber products," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 1237-1265, May.
    19. Dimitrios Panagiotou & Athanassios Stavrakoudis, 2023. "Price dependence among the major EU extra virgin olive oil markets: a time scale analysis," Review of Agricultural, Food and Environmental Studies, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 1-26, March.
    20. Thijs Markwat, 2014. "The rise of global stock market crash probabilities," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 557-571, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    coffee qualities; price dependence; copula; fairtrade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:75994. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.