IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/57665.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modelling the Impact of Fundamentals on County Housing Markets in Ireland

Author

Listed:
  • Morgenroth, Edgar

Abstract

Ireland experienced a recent boom-bust cycle in the housing market. While the housing market in Ireland has been analysed at the national level there has been no research on the relationship between fundamentals and the housing market at the sub-national level. In this paper the spatial distribution of household changes is projected for the period 2011 to 2021 and this is used to consider the impact on housing demand, taking into account the significant overhang of vacant properties. Given the assumptions used the demographic projections indicate that the growth in number of households will be concentrate in and around the large cities and particularly Dublin. Given a smaller vacant stock and the projected growth in conjunction with small number of housing completions implies that the Greater Dublin Region will experience housing shortages. Formal modelling of the change in house prices, the stock of housing and the vacancy rate confirms that fundamental drivers are important in shaping these variables. Importantly, the estimated parameters confirm the emerging shortage of housing in Dublin and predict consequent strong growth in house prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Morgenroth, Edgar, 2014. "Modelling the Impact of Fundamentals on County Housing Markets in Ireland," MPRA Paper 57665, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:57665
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/57665/1/MPRA_paper_57665.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ronan C. Lyons, 2015. "East, west, boom and bust: the spread of house prices and rents in Ireland, 2007-2012," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 77-101, March.
    2. Maurice J. Roche, 1999. "Irish House Prices - Will the Roof Cave In?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 30(4), pages 343-362.
    3. McCoy, Daniel & Duffy, David & Bergin, Adele & Garrett, Shane & McCarthy, Yvonne, 2005. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Spring 2005," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20051, march.
    4. Goodman, John L, Jr, 1998. "Aggregation of Local Housing Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 43-53, January.
    5. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    6. Kenny, Geoff, 1999. "Modelling the demand and supply sides of the housing market: evidence from Ireland1," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 389-409, August.
    7. Morgenroth, Edgar, 2008. "The Impact of Demographic Change on Demand for and Delivery of Health Services in Ireland 2006-2021: Report 2: Demographic Projections for the period until 2021," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number BKMNEXT166.
    8. Todd Kuethe & Valerien Pede, 2011. "Regional Housing Price Cycles: A Spatio-temporal Analysis Using US State-level Data," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(5), pages 563-574.
    9. Duffy, David & FitzGerald, John & Timoney, Kevin & Byrne, David, 2014. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Spring 2014," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20141, march.
    10. Brady, Ryan R., 2014. "The spatial diffusion of regional housing prices across U.S. states," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 150-166.
    11. FitzGerald, John, 2005. "The Irish Housing Stock: Growth in Number of Vacant Dwellings," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 2005(1-Spring), pages 1-22.
    12. Duffy, David & Byrne, David & FitzGerald, John, 2014. "Alternative Scenarios for New Household Formation in Ireland," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    13. Edgar Morgenroth, 2002. "Evaluating Methods for Short to Medium Term County Population Forecasting," Papers WP143, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    14. Min Hwang & John M. Quigley, 2006. "Economic Fundamentals In Local Housing Markets: Evidence From U.S. Metropolitan Regions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 425-453, August.
    15. FitzGerald, John & Byrne, David & Znuderl, Nusa, 2011. "The Impact of Changes in Educational Attainment on Life Expectancy in Ireland," Papers WP414, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    16. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Duffy, David & McQuinn, Kieran & Morley, Ciara & Foley, Daniel, 2016. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Spring 2016," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20161, march.
    2. Morgenroth, Edgar, 2016. "Housing Supply and House Price Trends at the County Level," Research Notes RN2016/1/1, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    3. Morgenroth, Edgar, 2014. "Projected Population Change and Housing Demand: A County Level Analysis," Research Notes RN2014/2/3, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    4. Allen-Coghlan, Matthew & McQuinn, Kieran & O'Toole, Conor, 2019. "Assessing price sustainability in the Irish housing market: A county-level analysis," Research Notes RN20190401, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    5. Byrne, David & Duffy, David & FitzGerald, John, 2014. "Household Formation and Tenure Choice," Research Notes RN2014/2/2, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    6. Duffy, David & Foley, Daniel & McQuinn, Kieran, 2016. "Cross Country Residential Investment Rates and the Implications for the Irish Housing Market," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Morgenroth, Edgar, 2014. "Projected Population Change and Housing Demand: A County Level Analysis," Research Notes RN2014/2/3, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    2. David Byrne & David Duffy & John FitzGerald, 2018. "Household Formation and Tenure Choice: Did the Great Irish Housing Bust Alter Consumer Behaviour?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 49(3), pages 287-317.
    3. Cohen, Jeffrey P. & Ioannides, Yannis M. & (Wirathip) Thanapisitikul, Win, 2016. "Spatial effects and house price dynamics in the USA," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-13.
    4. David Duffy & John Fitz Gerald & Ide Kearney, 2005. "Rising House Prices in an Open Labour Market," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 36(3), pages 251-272.
    5. Morgenroth, Edgar, 2018. "Prospects for Irish Regions and Counties: Scenarios and Implications," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS70.
    6. Peppel-Srebrny, Jemima, 2021. "Not all government budget deficits are created equal: Evidence from advanced economies' sovereign bond markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    7. Andrea Orame, 2020. "The role of bank supply in the Italian credit market: evidence from a new regional survey," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1279, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Raffaella Santolini, 2017. "Electoral Rules And Public Spending Composition: The Case Of Italian Regions," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(3), pages 551-577, July.
    9. Sèna Kimm Gnangnon, 2020. "Trade Openness and Diversification of External Financial Flows for Development: An Empirical Analysis," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 9(1), pages 22-57, June.
    10. Alessandro Federici & Pierluigi Montalbano, 2012. "Macroeconomic volatility, consumption behaviour and welfare: A cross-country analysis," Working Paper Series 3612, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    11. Arno Vlist & Daniel Czamanski & Henk Folmer, 2011. "Immigration and urban housing market dynamics: the case of Haifa," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 47(3), pages 585-598, December.
    12. Dilla, Diana, 2017. "Staatsverschuldung und Verschuldungsmentalität [Public Debt and Debt Mentality]," MPRA Paper 79432, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Gupta, Sanjeev & Liu, Estelle X. & Mulas-Granados, Carlos, 2016. "Now or later? The political economy of public investment in democracies," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 101-114.
    14. Subhani Keerthiratne & Richard S. J. Tol, 2017. "Impact of Natural Disasters on Financial Development," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 33-54, June.
    15. Gnangnon Sèna Kimm, 2017. "Empirical Evidence on the Impact of Multilateral Trade Liberalization on Domestic Trade Policy," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 1-14, September.
    16. Dorothée Charlier & Mouez Fodha & Djamel Kirat, 2023. "Residential CO2 Emissions in Europe and Carbon Taxation: A Country-Level Assessment," The Energy Journal, , vol. 44(5), pages 187-206, September.
    17. Kaewnern, Hathaipat & Wangkumharn, Sirikul & Deeyaonarn, Wongsathon & Yousaf, Abaid Ullah & Kongbuamai, Nattapan, 2023. "Investigating the role of research development and renewable energy on human development: An insight from the top ten human development index countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).
    18. Vanessa da Silva Mariotto Onody & Ana Catarina Gandra de Carvalho & Eduardo Polloni-Silva & Guilherme Augusto Roiz & Enzo Barberio Mariano & Daisy Aparecida Nascimento Rebelatto & Herick Fernando Mora, 2022. "Corruption and FDI in Brazil: Contesting the “Sand” or “Grease” Hypotheses," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-18, May.
    19. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Effect of the Duration of Membership in the GATT/WTO on Human Development in Developed and Developing Countries," EconStor Preprints 265061, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    20. Borice Augustin Ngounou & Honoré Tekam Oumbe & Bruno Emmanuel Ongo Nkoa & Edmond Noubissi Domguia, 2024. "Inclusive growth in the face of increasing urbanization: What experience for African countries?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 34-70, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regional housing market; house prices; demographic change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R32 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Other Spatial Production and Pricing Analysis

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:57665. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.