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Evaluating Methods for Short to Medium Term County Population Forecasting

Author

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  • Edgar Morgenroth

    (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI))

Abstract

Public services provision and land use planning are crucially dependent on accurate population forecasts. Despite their importance, particularly for planning at the local level, population forecasts for Irish counties are not readily available. A number of different methods could be used to calculate such forecasts, but it is not clear which of these possible methods produces the most accurate forecasts. This paper assesses the data requirements and methodology involved in the implementation of the various techniques, and evaluates the forecasting performance of a number of different methods in terms of the forecast error associated with each method over the period 1991 to 1996. The results of this paper show that simple share extrapolation techniques perform well compared with the more elaborate cohort component model that is widely used for national projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Edgar Morgenroth, 2002. "Evaluating Methods for Short to Medium Term County Population Forecasting," Papers WP143, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    • Handle: RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp143
    as

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    File URL: https://www.esri.ie/pubs/WP143.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hughes, G., 1980. "Internal Migration Flows in Ireland and their Determinants," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number GRS98.
    2. Morgenroth, Edgar, 2005. "Analysis of the Economic Employment and Social Profile of the Greater Dublin Region," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number BMI161.
    3. John FitzGerald & Ide Kearney, 1999. "Migration and the Irish Labour Market," Papers WP113, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    4. Smith, Stanley K. & Sincich, Terry, 1992. "Evaluating the forecast accuracy and bias of alternative population projections for states," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 495-508, November.
    5. Joseph Gerard Hughes & Brendan M. Walsh, 1980. "Internal migration flows in Ireland and their determinants," Open Access publications 10197/1512, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    6. Barrett, Alan, 1999. "Irish Migration: Characteristics, Causes and Consequences," IZA Discussion Papers 97, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Morgenroth, Edgar, 2014. "Modelling the Impact of Fundamentals on County Housing Markets in Ireland," MPRA Paper 57665, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Morgenroth, Edgar, 2008. "The Impact of Demographic Change on Demand for and Delivery of Health Services in Ireland 2006-2021: Report 2: Demographic Projections for the period until 2021," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number BKMNEXT166.
    3. Morgenroth, Edgar, 2018. "Prospects for Irish Regions and Counties: Scenarios and Implications," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS70.
    4. Stefan Rayer & Stanley Smith & Jeff Tayman, 2009. "Empirical Prediction Intervals for County Population Forecasts," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 28(6), pages 773-793, December.
    5. Morgenroth, Edgar, 2014. "Projected Population Change and Housing Demand: A County Level Analysis," Research Notes RN2014/2/3, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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