Prospects for Irish Regions and Counties: Scenarios and Implications

The research provides projections for regions and counties across Ireland up to the year 2040, examining what will happen if current spatial planning patterns continue, and what would happen in a range of alternative scenarios. If the current pattern of growth continues, it will lead to a further gap in prosperity between Dublin and the rest of the country. In Dublin, it will lead to additional housing demand and increased long-distance commuting. Projections show that if current trends continue, population growth, employment growth and jobs growth will be concentrated in Dublin and the Mid-East of Ireland. The research finds that the most positive outcomes would result from a scenario in which growth is split equally between the East and Midland region and the rest of the country. This would relieve pressure in the Dublin region, while still allowing significant growth. Scaling up second-tier cities would provide a greater range of functions in surrounding areas. To achieve this, it is necessary to develop within the cities the necessary infrastructure, such as water and wastewater infrastructure, urban public transport, schools etc. It is essential that affordable housing and other amenities are provided in cities in order to attract people to live there and to avoid further sprawl. The increased scale of the second-tier cities would allow them and their wider hinterland to generate more start-up firms and attract more FDI.