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Household Formation and Tenure Choice: Did the Great Irish Housing Bust Alter Consumer Behaviour?

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  • David Byrne

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • David Duffy

    (Irish Business and Employers Confederation)

  • John FitzGerald

    (The Economic and Social Research Institute)

Abstract

This paper analyses the household formation and tenure choice decisions of different age cohorts in the Irish market. We use data covering the years 2001 to 2011, a period which encompasses the boom, bubble and collapse in the Irish housing market. We find that the household formation decision is affected by the rent-to-income ratio while tenure choice depends upon the difference between rent and the user cost of housing, a notional cost of services derived from owning a home. After the crash, the balance of these costs favoured renting, resulting in a decrease in owner occupancy. In addition, we find that falling average rents caused entry to the housing market to become more affordable, and that this was linked to significantly higher household formation rates.

Suggested Citation

  • David Byrne & David Duffy & John FitzGerald, 2018. "Household Formation and Tenure Choice: Did the Great Irish Housing Bust Alter Consumer Behaviour?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 49(3), pages 287-317.
    • Handle: RePEc:eso:journl:v:49:y:2018:i:3:p:287-317
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    2. Bergin, Adele & Duffy, David & Foley, Daniel & Garcia Rodriguez, Abian & Lawless, Martina & Mc Inerney, Niall & McQuinn, Kieran, 2016. "Ireland’s Economic Outlook: Perspectives and Policy Challenges," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number EO1 edited by Bergin, Adele & Morgenroth, Edgar & McQuinn, Kieran, march.
    3. Byrne, David & Duffy, David & FitzGerald, John, 2014. "Household Formation and Tenure Choice," Research Notes RN2014/2/2, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    4. Duffy, David & McQuinn, Kieran & Foley, Daniel, 2016. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Autumn 2016," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC20163, march.
    5. Duffy, David & Foley, Daniel & Mc Inerney, Niall & McQuinn, Kieran, 2016. "Demographic Change, Long-Run Housing Demand and the Related Challenges for the Irish Banking Sector," Book Chapters, in: Ireland’s Economic Outlook: Perspectives and Policy Challenges, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    6. Lawless, Martina & Morgenroth, Edgar, 2016. "Opportunities and Risks for Foreign Direct Investment," Book Chapters, in: Ireland’s Economic Outlook: Perspectives and Policy Challenges, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    7. Matel Anna, 2021. "Tenure Status in Life Cycle Cohorts in Poland," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 29(3), pages 1-12, September.
    8. Dorothy Watson & Eoin Corrigan, 2019. "Social Housing in the Irish Housing Market," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 50(1), pages 213-248.
    9. Bergin, Adele & Garcia Rodriguez, Abian & Mc Inerney, Niall & Morgenroth, Edgar, 2016. "Baseline: Methodology, Assumptions and Projections," Book Chapters, in: Ireland’s Economic Outlook: Perspectives and Policy Challenges, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    10. Duffy, David & Foley, Daniel & McQuinn, Kieran & Mc Inerney, Niall, 2016. "An Empirical Assessment of the Macroprudential Measures in the Irish Housing Market," Research Notes RN2016/3/1, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

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