IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/106286.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The long road to democracy: Does the demand for democracy affect its actual level?

Author

Listed:
  • Fedotenkov, Igor

Abstract

In this paper, we evaluate if the demand for democracy affects the actual level of democracy. The analysis is based on the World Values Survey and Worldwide Governance Indicators data and is applied to a sample of 70 countries. We focus on the dynamics of the level of democracy within the individual countries, and not on cross-country differences. We find that in the short run, agents’ attitudes towards democracy are negatively correlated with the actual level of democracy. This finding may be explained by crackdowns initiated by authoritarian governments for their self-preservation. Future levels of democracy can be predicted by the agents’ demand for an authoritarian leader unhindered by a parliament or elections. Transformations, however, are far from immediate. Our estimations suggest that the time-lag between a decline in the demand for an authoritarian leader and an increase in the level of democracy is around six years. An additional finding is that a greater dependence on oil revenues is associated with a lower democracy level.

Suggested Citation

  • Fedotenkov, Igor, 2021. "The long road to democracy: Does the demand for democracy affect its actual level?," MPRA Paper 106286, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:106286
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/106286/1/MPRA_paper_106286.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wright, Joseph & Frantz, Erica & Geddes, Barbara, 2015. "Oil and Autocratic Regime Survival," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(2), pages 287-306, April.
    2. Ann L. Owen & Julio Videras & Christina Willemsen, 2008. "Democracy, Participation, and Life Satisfaction," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 89(4), pages 987-1005, December.
    3. Breusch, T S, 1978. "Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(31), pages 334-355, December.
    4. Mackenbach, Johan P. & Hu, Yannan & Looman, Caspar W.N., 2013. "Democratization and life expectancy in Europe, 1960–2008," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 166-175.
    5. Kevin Morrison, 2007. "Natural resources, aid, and democratization: A best-case scenario," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 131(3), pages 365-386, June.
    6. Jardar Østbø, 2017. "Securitizing “spiritual-moral values” in Russia," Post-Soviet Affairs, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 200-216, May.
    7. Deacon, Robert, 2003. "Dictatorship, Democracy, and the Provision of Public Goods," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt9h54w76c, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    8. Robert J. Barro, 1999. "Determinants of Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(S6), pages 158-183, December.
    9. Jeff D Colgan, 2015. "Oil, domestic conflict, and opportunities for democratization," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 52(1), pages 3-16, January.
    10. Edward L. Glaeser, 2005. "Inequality," NBER Working Papers 11511, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Hristos Doucouliagos & Mehmet Ali Ulubaşoğlu, 2008. "Democracy and Economic Growth: A Meta‐Analysis," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(1), pages 61-83, January.
    12. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    13. Marta Orviska & Anetta Caplanova & John Hudson, 2014. "The Impact of Democracy on Well-being," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 115(1), pages 493-508, January.
    14. Godfrey, Leslie G, 1978. "Testing against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models When the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1293-1301, November.
    15. Arellano, M, 1987. "Computing Robust Standard Errors for Within-Groups Estimators," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 49(4), pages 431-434, November.
    16. Mehmet Gurses, 2011. "Elites, Oil, and Democratization: A Survival Analysis," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 92(1), pages 164-184, March.
    17. Richard Sakwa, 2015. "Questioning Control and Contestation in Late Putinite Russia," Europe-Asia Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 67(2), pages 192-208, February.
    18. Burkhart, Ross E. & Lewis-Beck, Michael S., 1994. "Comparative Democracy: The Economic Development Thesis," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 88(4), pages 903-910, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Igor Fedotenkov & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "The effects of public expenditures on labour productivity in Europe," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 845-874, November.
    2. Peter Bauer & Igor Fedotenkov & Aurelien Genty & Issam Hallak & Peter Harasztosi & David Martinez Turegano & David Nguyen & Nadir Preziosi & Ana Rincon-Aznar & Miguel Sanchez Martinez, 2020. "Productivity in Europe: Trends and drivers in a service-based economy," JRC Research Reports JRC119785, Joint Research Centre.
    3. Fedotenkov, Igor & Derkachev, Pavel, 2017. "Gender longevity gap and socioeconomic indicators in developed countries," MPRA Paper 83215, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Igor Fedotenkov & Pavel Derkachev, 2020. "Gender longevity gap and socioeconomic indicators in developed countries," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 47(1), pages 127-144, January.
    5. de Meulemeester, Jean-Luc & Rochat, Denis, 1995. "A causality analysis of the link between higher education and economic development," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 351-361, December.
    6. Daron Acemoglu & Suresh Naidu & Pascual Restrepo & James A. Robinson, 2019. "Democracy Does Cause Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(1), pages 47-100.
    7. Bård Misund & Petter Osmundsen, 2017. "Valuation of proved vs. probable oil and gas reserves," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1385443-138, January.
    8. Adrian C. Darnell, 1994. "A Dictionary Of Econometrics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 118.
    9. Misund, Bård, 2015. "Reserves Replacement and Oil and Gas Company Shareholder returns," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2015/11, University of Stavanger.
    10. Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2020. "Asymmetric Panel Causality Tests with an Application to the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Performance in Scandinavia," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 73(3), pages 389-404.
    11. Uddin, Gazi A. & Alam, Khorshed & Gow, Jeff, 2016. "Population age structure and savings rate impacts on economic growth: Evidence from Australia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 23-33.
    12. Joel Alejandro Rosado & Mar a Isabel Alvarado S nchez, 2017. "From Population Age Structure and Savings Rate to Economic Growth: Evidence from Ecuador," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 352-361.
    13. El-Shazly, Alaa, 2016. "Structural breaks and monetary dynamics: A time series analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 133-143.
    14. Sotiris Tsolacos, 1999. "Retail Building Cycles: Evidence from Great Britain," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 197-218.
    15. Bård Misund & Petter Osmundsen, 2015. "Probable Oil and Gas Reserves and Shareholder Returns: The Impact of Shale Gas," CESifo Working Paper Series 5687, CESifo.
    16. Watson, John & Wickramanayake, J., 2012. "The relationship between aggregate managed fund flows and share market returns in Australia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 451-472.
    17. Bhanu Pratap Singh Thakur & M. Kannadhasan & Vinay Goyal, 2018. "Determinants of corporate credit spread: evidence from India," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 45(1), pages 59-73, March.
    18. Yaser Abolghasemi & Stanko Dimitrov, 2021. "Determining the causality between U.S. presidential prediction markets and global financial markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4534-4556, July.
    19. Edgar A. Peden & Mark S. Freeland, 1998. "Insurance effects on US medical spending (1960–1993)," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(8), pages 671-687, December.
    20. Andrei S. Akhremenko & Alexander Petrov, 2014. "Efficiency, Policy Selection, And Growth In Democracy And Autocracy: A Formal Dynamical Model," HSE Working papers WP BRP 16/PS/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Democracy; political leaders; panel data analysis; World Values Survey.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies
    • Y8 - Miscellaneous Categories - - Related Disciplines

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:106286. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.