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Oil and Autocratic Regime Survival

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  • Wright, Joseph
  • Frantz, Erica
  • Geddes, Barbara

Abstract

This article uncovers a new mechanism linking oil wealth to autocratic regime survival: the investigation tests whether increases in oil wealth improve the survival of autocracies by lowering the chances of democratization, reducing the risk of transition to subsequent dictatorship, or both. Using a new measure of autocratic durability shows that, once models allow for unit effects, oil wealth promotes autocratic survival by lowering the risk of ouster by rival autocratic groups. Evidence also indicates that oil income increases military spending in dictatorships, which suggests that increasing oil wealth may deter coups that could have caused a regime collapse.

Suggested Citation

  • Wright, Joseph & Frantz, Erica & Geddes, Barbara, 2015. "Oil and Autocratic Regime Survival," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(2), pages 287-306, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:bjposi:v:45:y:2015:i:02:p:287-306_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Urbatsch, R., 2020. "Do expert surveys underrate lower-income countries?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(8).
    2. Arin, K. Peren & Braunfels, Elias, 2018. "The resource curse revisited: A Bayesian model averaging approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 170-178.
    3. Sambit Bhattacharyya & Michael Keller, 2021. "Resource Discovery and the Political Fortunes of National Leaders," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(349), pages 129-166, January.
    4. Indra de Soysa & Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2020. "Oil Wealth and Property Rights," CESifo Working Paper Series 8319, CESifo.
    5. Maria J. Debre, 2022. "Clubs of autocrats: Regional organizations and authoritarian survival," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 485-511, July.
    6. Fedotenkov, Igor, 2021. "The long road to democracy: Does the demand for democracy affect its actual level?," MPRA Paper 106286, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Dell’Anno, Roberto, 2020. "Reconciling empirics on the political economy of the resource curse hypothesis. Evidence from long-run relationships between resource dependence, democracy and economic growth in Iran," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    8. Takaharu, Ishii, 2024. "Interactions between natural resources and false democracy?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    9. Yawovi Mawussé Isaac Amedanou & Yannick Bouterige & Bertrand Laporte, 2023. "Institutional and political drivers for copper government take: new evidence for African and Latin American countries," CERDI Working papers hal-04213102, HAL.
    10. Larissa Nawo & Désiré Avom & Kyle McNabb & Luc Nembot, 2019. "Unofficial sovereign wealth funds and duration in power in Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-57, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    11. Ariel I. Ahram, 2024. "In Search of a Middle East and North Africa Peace System," Contemporary Review of the Middle East, , vol. 11(2), pages 168-191, June.
    12. de Soysa, Indra & Krieger, Tim & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2022. "Oil and property rights," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    13. Quiroz Flores, Alejandro & Pfaff, Katharina, 2021. "Private provision of public goods and political survival: Rail transport in four European democracies in the 20th century," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    14. Basedau, Matthias & Gobien, Simone & Prediger, Sebastian, 2017. "The Ambivalent Role of Religion for Sustainable Development: A Review of the Empirical Evidence," GIGA Working Papers 297, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    15. Laszlo Szalai, 2018. "Institutions and Resource-driven Development," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 4(1), pages 39-53, June.
    16. Nguyen, Minh-Hoang, 2021. "Resource curse - Wikipedia," OSF Preprints 36uyb, Center for Open Science.
    17. Raouf Boucekkine & Rodolphe Desbordes & Paolo Melindi-Ghidi, 2023. "Elite-led revolutions," Working Papers hal-04225397, HAL.
    18. Matt Malis & Alastair Smith, 2021. "State Visits and Leader Survival," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 65(1), pages 241-256, January.
    19. Sanchez, Emerson M. & Lamchek, Jayson S., 2023. "Creating a sovereign wealth fund in a corruption-riddled country: Energizing transparency and sound governance with direct benefit-sharing," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    20. Matata Ponyo Mapon & Jean-Paul K. Tsasa, 2019. "The artefact of the Natural Resources Curse," Papers 1911.09681, arXiv.org.
    21. Chi-Swian Wong, 2021. "Science Mapping: A Scientometric Review on Resource Curses, Dutch Diseases, and Conflict Resources during 1993–2020," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-48, July.
    22. Harris, Adam S. & Sigman, Rachel & Meyer-Sahling, Jan-Hinrik & Mikkelsen, Kim Sass & Schuster, Christian, 2020. "Oiling the bureaucracy? political spending, bureaucrats and the resource curse," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    23. Schopf, James Christopher, 2019. "Room for improvement: Why Korea's leading ICT ODA program has failed to combat corruption," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 501-519.

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