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Learning and filtering via simulation: smoothly jittered particle filters

Author

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  • Neil Shephard
  • Thomas Flury

Abstract

A key ingredient of many particle filters is the use of the sampling importance resampling algorithm (SIR), which transforms a sample of weighted draws from a prior distribution into equally weighted draws from a posterior distribution. We give a novel analysis of the SIR algorithm and analyse the jittered generalisation of SIR, showing that existing implementations of jittering lead to marked inferior behaviour over the base SIR algorithm. We show how jittering can be designed to improve the performance of the SIR algorithm. We illustrate its performance in practice in the context of three filtering problems.

Suggested Citation

  • Neil Shephard & Thomas Flury, 2009. "Learning and filtering via simulation: smoothly jittered particle filters," Economics Series Working Papers 469, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:469
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    File URL: https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:d5544603-8ab2-45d4-a941-464f5ef23f03
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," Papers 95.400, Toulouse - GREMAQ.
    2. Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, 1998. "Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference and Comparison with ARCH Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 65(3), pages 361-393.
    3. Jones, M. C., 1990. "The performance of kernel density functions in kernel distribution function estimation," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 129-132, February.
    4. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
    5. Christophe Andrieu & Arnaud Doucet & Roman Holenstein, 2010. "Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo methods," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 72(3), pages 269-342, June.
    6. Michael S. Johannes & Nicholas G. Polson & Jonathan R. Stroud, 2009. "Optimal Filtering of Jump Diffusions: Extracting Latent States from Asset Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(7), pages 2559-2599, July.
    7. Shephard, Neil (ed.), 2005. "Stochastic Volatility: Selected Readings," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199257201.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Karol Gellert & Erik Schlögl, 2021. "Parameter Learning and Change Detection Using a Particle Filter with Accelerated Adaptation," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-18, December.
    2. Andras Fulop & Junye Li & Jun Yu, 2011. "Bayesian Learning of Impacts of Self-Exciting Jumps in Returns and Volatility," Working Papers CoFie-10-2011, Singapore Management University, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics.
    3. Duc Pham-Hi, 2014. "Shadow banking dynamics and learning behaviour," EcoMod2014 6920, EcoMod.
    4. Andras Fulop & Junye Li & Jun Yu, 2012. "Investigating Impacts of Self-Exciting Jumps in Returns and Volatility: A Bayesian Learning Approach," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd12-264, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    5. Fulop, Andras & Li, Junye, 2013. "Efficient learning via simulation: A marginalized resample-move approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 176(2), pages 146-161.
    6. Andreasen, Martin & Meldrum, Andrew, 2013. "Likelihood inference in non-linear term structure models: the importance of the lower bound," Bank of England working papers 481, Bank of England.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Importance sampling; Particle filter; Random numbers; Sampling importance resampling; State space models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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