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The Effect of Initial Job in Japanese Labor Market

Author

Listed:
  • Ayaka Nakamura

    (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University)

  • Katsuya Takii

    (Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University)

Abstract

We investigate the effect of being a regular employee in a job which a worker takes immediately after graduation (the initial job), on subsequent job status. We construct an assignment model that can be estimated by the marginal treatment effect (MTE) framework; the model suggests that the region- and cohort-level unexpected shocks that influences the demand for full time-worker share is a valid instrument under some assumptions. Estimating the MTE, we find that the treatment effect of the initial job is heterogeneous among individuals: male workers who are less likely to obtain regular employment in the initial job enjoy benefits of stable employment; however, the regular initial job does not increase the probability of subsequent regular employment for male workers who are likely to obtain regular employment in the initial job.

Suggested Citation

  • Ayaka Nakamura & Katsuya Takii, 2024. "The Effect of Initial Job in Japanese Labor Market," OSIPP Discussion Paper 24E007, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    • Handle: RePEc:osp:wpaper:24e007
    as

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    File URL: https://www.osipp.osaka-u.ac.jp/archives/DP/2024/DP2024E007.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cornelissen, Thomas & Dustmann, Christian & Raute, Anna & Schönberg, Uta, 2016. "From LATE to MTE: Alternative methods for the evaluation of policy interventions," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 47-60.
    2. Schwandt, Hannes & Wachter, Till von, 2020. "Socioeconomic Decline and Death: Midlife Impacts of Graduating in a Recession," IZA Discussion Papers 12908, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Esteban-Pretel, Julen & Nakajima, Ryo & Tanaka, Ryuichi, 2011. "Are contingent jobs dead ends or stepping stones to regular jobs? Evidence from a structural estimation," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 513-526, August.
    4. Imbens, Guido W & Angrist, Joshua D, 1994. "Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 467-475, March.
    5. Edward Vytlacil, 2002. "Independence, Monotonicity, and Latent Index Models: An Equivalence Result," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 331-341, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Employment stability; Initial labor market condition; MTE; Assignment model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion

    NEP fields

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