IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osp/wpaper/12e005.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Welfare Changes and Sectoral Adjustments of Asia-Pacific Countries under Alternative Sequencings of Free Trade Agreements

Author

Listed:
  • Ken Itakura

    (Graduate School of Economics, Nagoya City University)

  • Hiro Lee

    (Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University)

Abstract

In this paper we compare welfare effects and the extent of sectoral adjustments of the member countries under alternative free trade agreement (FTA) sequencings in the Asia-Pacific region using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. If a Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement under one sequencing and an East Asian FTA (EAFTA) under another sequencing will enter into force at the same time, followed by more enlarged FTAs, then a larger number of countries are expected to realize greater welfare gains under the Asia-track sequencing. However, given the uncertainty about the establishment of an Asia-wide FTA in the near future, the TPP-track sequencing appears to be an attractive option for most countries in the Asia-Pacific region. With respect to sectoral adjustments, there seem to be no significant differences among the alternative sequencings.

Suggested Citation

  • Ken Itakura & Hiro Lee, 2012. "Welfare Changes and Sectoral Adjustments of Asia-Pacific Countries under Alternative Sequencings of Free Trade Agreements," OSIPP Discussion Paper 12E005, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    • Handle: RePEc:osp:wpaper:12e005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.osipp.osaka-u.ac.jp/archives/DP/2012/DP2012E005.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hiro Lee & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2007. "Regional Integration, Sectoral Adjustments and Natural Groupings in East Asia," OSIPP Discussion Paper 07E008, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    2. Joseph Francis Francois & Ganeshan Wignaraja, 2008. "Economic Implications of Deeper Asian Integration," Economics working papers 2008-13, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    3. Ianchovichina, Elena & McDougall, Robert, 2000. "Theoretical Structure Of Dynamic Gtap," Technical Papers 28723, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Lee, Hiro & Owen, Robert F. & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2009. "Regional integration in Asia and its effects on the EU and North America," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 240-254, May.
    5. Francois Joseph F & Wignaraja Ganeshan, 2008. "Economic Implications of Asian Integration," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-48, September.
    6. Andrew B. Bernard, 2004. "Exporting and Productivity in the USA," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 20(3), pages 343-357, Autumn.
    7. Eric W. Bond, 2008. "Adjustment Costs and the Sequencing of Trade Liberalisation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 97-111, January.
    8. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    9. Arvind Panagariya, 2000. "Preferential Trade Liberalization: The Traditional Theory and New Developments," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 287-331, June.
    10. Peter J. Lloyd & Donald Maclaren, 2004. "Gains and Losses from Regional Trading Agreements: A Survey," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(251), pages 445-467, December.
    11. Innwon Park, 2006. "East Asian Regional Trade Agreements: Do They Promote Global Free Trade?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(4), pages 547-568, December.
    12. Peter A. Petri & Michael G. Plummer & Fan Zhai, 2012. "The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 6642, April.
    13. Anne O. Krueger, 1999. "Are Preferential Trading Arrangements Trade-Liberalizing or Protectionist?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 105-124, Fall.
    14. Lee, Hiro & Roland-Holst, David & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2004. "China's emergence in East Asia under alternative trading arrangements," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 697-712, August.
    15. Shujiro Urata & Kozo Kiyota, 2003. "The Impacts of an East Asia FTA on Foreign Trade in East Asia," NBER Working Papers 10173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Takatoshi Ito & Andrew K. Rose, 2005. "International Trade in East Asia," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_05-1.
    17. Ito, Takatoshi & Rose, Andrew K. (ed.), 2005. "International Trade in East Asia," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226378961, September.
    18. Richard E. Baldwin, 2008. "Sequencing and Depth of Regional Economic Integration: Lessons for the Americas from Europe," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 5-30, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Van Ha, Pham & Kompas, Tom & Nguyen, Hoa Thi Minh & Long, Chu Hoang, 2017. "Building a better trade model to determine local effects: A regional and intertemporal GTAP model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 102-113.
    2. Lee, Hiro & Itakura, Ken, 2013. "What Might be a Desirable FTA Path towards Global Free Trade for Asia-Pacific Countries?," Conference papers 332391, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Cororaton, Caesar B., 2016. "Potential Effects of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership on the Philippine Economy," Research Paper Series DP 2016-30, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    4. Chunding Li & John Whalley, 2012. "China and the TPP: A Numerical Simulation Assessment of the Effects Involved," NBER Working Papers 18090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Syed Shoyeb Hossain & Huang Delin, 2022. "Measuring economic impact in Korea, Japan, India, China, and ASEAN considering agricultural sectors: a dynamic CGE approach based on GAMS," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 158(2), pages 571-613, May.
    6. Kenichi Kawasaki & Badri G. Narayanan & Houssein Guimbard & Arata Kuno, 2019. "Analysis of the Role of Tariff Concessions in East Asia," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 13(2), pages 141-167, May.
    7. Chunding Li & John Whalley, 2014. "How Close is Asia to Already Being A Trade Bloc?," NBER Working Papers 20424, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Hiro Lee & Ken Itakura, 2014. "TPP, RCEP, and Japan's Agricultural Policy Reforms," OSIPP Discussion Paper 14E003, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    9. Lee, Hiro & Itakura, Ken, 2015. "Mega-regional free trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific: How do productivity gains, cost mitigations and agricultural policy reforms affect the results?," Conference papers 332589, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    10. Hirokazu Akahori & Daisuke Sawauchi & Yasutaka Yamamoto, 2017. "Measuring the Changes of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Caused by the Trans-Pacific Partnership," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-12, April.
    11. Lee, Hiro & Itakura, Ken, 2018. "The welfare and sectoral adjustment effects of mega-regional trade agreements on ASEAN countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 20-32.
    12. To, Minh Thu & Lee, Hiro, 2014. "Assessing the impacts of deeper trade reform in Vietnam in a general equilibrium framework," MPRA Paper 82271, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Kawasaki, Kenichi, 2015. "The relative significance of EPAs in Asia-Pacific," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 19-30.
    14. Chunding Li & John Whalley, 2021. "Effects of the comprehensive and progressive agreement for trans‐pacific partnership," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(5), pages 1312-1337, May.
    15. Paramita Dasgupta & Kakali Mukhopadhyay, 2017. "The impact of the TPP on selected ASEAN economies," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 6(1), pages 1-34, December.
    16. Wainio, John & Dyck, John & Meade, Birgit Gisela Saager & Mitchell, Lorrarine & Zahniser, Steven & Arita, Shawn & Beckman, Jayson F. & Burfisher, Mary E., 2014. "Agriculture in the Trans-Pacific Partnership," Economic Research Report 188429, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    17. Kawasaki, Kenichi & Narayanan, Badri & Guimbard, Houssein & Kuno, Arata, 2015. "East Asia tariff concession: A CGE analysis," Conference papers 332629, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    18. Cororaton, Caesar B., 2016. "Potential Effects of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership on the Philippine Economy," Discussion Papers DP 2016-30, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    19. Caesar Cororaton, 2016. "Potential Effects of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership on the Philippine Economy," Working Papers id:11266, eSocialSciences.
    20. Hiro Lee & Ken Itakura, 2015. "Applied General Equilibrium Analysis of Mega-Regional Free Trade Initiatives in the Asia-Pacific," OSIPP Discussion Paper 15E001, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    21. Chunding Li & Jing Wang & John Whalley, 2014. "Numerical General Equilibrium Analysis of China's Impacts from Possible Mega Trade Deals," NBER Working Papers 20425, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Lee, Hiro & Itakura, Ken, 2017. "Potential Costs of U.S. Withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership," Conference papers 332825, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    23. Lee, Hiro & Itakura, Ken, 2016. "The Implications of the Trans-Pacific Partnership for Japan: Agricultural Policy Reforms and Productivity Gains," Conference papers 332771, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Itakura, Ken & Lee, Hiro, 2012. "Welfare and Structural Adjustment Implications of Asian Track and Trans-Pacific Track Sequencings of FTAs," Conference papers 332175, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Lee, Hiro & Itakura, Ken, 2013. "What Might be a Desirable FTA Path towards Global Free Trade for Asia-Pacific Countries?," Conference papers 332391, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Massetti, Emanuele & Ricci, Elena Claire, 2011. "Super-Grids and Concentrated Solar Power: A Scenario Analysis with the WITCH Model," Conference papers 332112, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Lee, Hiro & Owen, Robert F. & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2009. "Regional integration in Asia and its effects on the EU and North America," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 240-254, May.
    5. Hiro Lee & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2007. "Regional Integration, Sectoral Adjustments and Natural Groupings in East Asia," OSIPP Discussion Paper 07E008, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    6. Kawai, Masahiro & Zhai, Fan, 2009. "China-Japan-United States integration amid global rebalancing: A computable general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 688-699, November.
    7. Cheong, Inkyo, 2013. "Negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement: Evaluation and Implications for East Asian Regionalism," ADBI Working Papers 428, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    8. Lee, Hiro & Itakura, Ken, 2018. "The welfare and sectoral adjustment effects of mega-regional trade agreements on ASEAN countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 20-32.
    9. Emiliano Magrini & Pierluigi Montalbano & Silvia Nenci, 2013. "Are the EU trade preferences really effective? A Generalized Propensity Score evaluation of the Southern Mediterranean Countries' case in agriculture and fishery," Working Papers 2/13, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    10. Michael G. Plummer & Ganeshan Wignaraja, 2006. "The Post-Crisis Sequencing of Economic Integration in Asia: Trade as a Complement to a Monetary Future," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 107, pages 59-85.
    11. Kumagai, Satoru & Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Isono, Ikumo & Keola, Souknilanh & Tsubota, Kenmei, 2013. "Geographical simulation analysis for logistics enhancement in Asia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 145-153.
    12. Hertel, Thomas, 2013. "Global Applied General Equilibrium Analysis Using the Global Trade Analysis Project Framework," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 815-876, Elsevier.
    13. Hiro Lee & Ken Itakura, 2014. "TPP, RCEP, and Japan's Agricultural Policy Reforms," OSIPP Discussion Paper 14E003, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    14. Ken Itakura & Hiro Lee, 2023. "Should the United States rejoin the Trans-Pacific trade deal?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 235-255, May.
    15. Richard Pomfret & Uwe Kaufmann & Christopher Findlay, 2010. "Are Preferential Tariffs Utilized? Evidence from Australian Imports, 2000-9," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2010-13, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    16. Itakura, Ken, 2014. "Impact of liberalization and improved connectivity and facilitation in ASEAN," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 2-11.
    17. Gumilang, Howard & Mukhopadhyay, Kakali & Thomassin, Paul J., 2011. "Economic and environmental impacts of trade liberalization: The case of Indonesia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1030-1041, May.
    18. Mr. Tubagus Feridhanusetyawan, 2005. "Preferential Trade Agreements in the Asia-Pacific Region," IMF Working Papers 2005/149, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Ekaterina Y. ARAPOVA, 2017. "Ex-Post Analysis Of The Influence Of Tariff Liberalisation On Asean Exports," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 17(2), pages 135-154.
    20. Richard E. Baldwin, 2011. "Multilateralising Regionalism: Spaghetti Bowls as Building Blocks on the Path to Global Free Trade," Chapters, in: Miroslav N. Jovanović (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume I, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sequencing; FTA; Asia-Pacific; CGE model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osp:wpaper:12e005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akiko Murashita (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/iposujp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.