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Regional Integration, Sectoral Adjustments and Natural Groupings in East Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Hiro Lee

    (Osaka School of International Public Policy,Osaka University)

  • Dominique van der Mensbrugghe

    (The World Bank)

Abstract

Although East Asian countries were relatively inactive in signing free trade agreements (FTAs) until the end of 1990s, a number of FTAs involving East Asian countries have been signed since the turn of the century. Because sectoral interests can exert significant influence on policy negotiations, the sectoral results would be particularly important for political economy considerations. The objective of this study is to compare welfare gains and sectoral adjustments resulting from various FTA scenarios in East Asia using a dynamic global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The RCA rankings of commodities with various FTA scenarios and those with the global trade liberalization are correlated to examine how gnatural h each grouping would be. The results suggest that the ASEAN+3 FTA, with relatively large welfare gains and small structural adjustments, could be a facilitating intermediate step towards global free trade. Some of the smaller FTAs, such as the ASEAN-China and ASEAN-Korea FTAs, would result in large structural adjustments for ASEAN countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Hiro Lee & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2007. "Regional Integration, Sectoral Adjustments and Natural Groupings in East Asia," OSIPP Discussion Paper 07E008, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    • Handle: RePEc:osp:wpaper:07e008
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Yu Sheng & Hsiao Chink Tang & Xinpeng Xu, 2014. "The impact of the ACFTA on ASEAN--PRC trade: estimates based on an extended gravity model for component trade," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(19), pages 2251-2263, July.
    2. Itakura, Ken, 2014. "Impact of Liberalization and Improved Connectivity and Facilitation in ASEAN," Conference papers 332499, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    3. Kawai, Masahiro & Zhai, Fan, 2009. "China-Japan-United States integration amid global rebalancing: A computable general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 688-699, November.
    4. Innwon Park, 2009. "Regional Trade Agreements in East Asia: Will They Be Sustainable?," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 23(2), pages 169-194, June.
    5. Itakura, Ken, 2014. "Impact of liberalization and improved connectivity and facilitation in ASEAN," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 2-11.
    6. Lee, Hiro & Owen, Robert F. & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2009. "Regional integration in Asia and its effects on the EU and North America," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 240-254, May.
    7. Innwon Park, 2011. "Is AFTA a Desirable Regional Trade Agreement for ASEAN?," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 14(4), pages 49-72, December.
    8. Ken Itakura & Hiro Lee, 2012. "Welfare Changes And Sectoral Adjustments Of Asia-Pacific Countries Under Alternative Sequencings Of Free Trade Agreements," Global Journal of Economics (GJE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(02), pages 1-22.
    9. Donghyun Park & Innwon Park & Gemma Esther B. Estrada, 2009. "Prospects for ASEAN–China Free Trade Area: A Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(4), pages 104-120, July.
    10. Itakura, Ken & Lee, Hiro, 2012. "Welfare and Structural Adjustment Implications of Asian Track and Trans-Pacific Track Sequencings of FTAs," Conference papers 332175, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    11. Marques, Alexandra P.S. & Rodrigues, João F.D. & Domingos, Tiago M.D., 2010. "The circular flow of CO2 emissions embodied in international trade," Conference papers 331986, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    12. Massetti, Emanuele & Ricci, Elena Claire, 2011. "Super-Grids and Concentrated Solar Power: A Scenario Analysis with the WITCH Model," Conference papers 332112, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regional integration; FTA; RCA; East Asia; CGE model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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