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Numerical General Equilibrium Analysis of China's Impacts from Possible Mega Trade Deals

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  • Chunding Li
  • Jing Wang
  • John Whalley

Abstract

This paper explores the potential impacts on both China and other major countries of possible mega trade deals. These include the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and various blocked deals. We use a numerical 13-country global general equilibrium model with trade costs to investigate both tariff and non-tariff effects, and include inside money to endogenously determine imports on the trade imbalance. Trade costs are calculated using a method based on gravity equations. Simulation results reveal that all FTA participation countries will gain but all FTA non-participation countries will lose. If non-tariff barriers are reduced more, the impacts will be larger. All effects to China on welfare, trade, export and import are positive. Comparatively China-TPP and RCEP will yield the highest welfare outcomes for the US in our model, China-Japan-Korea FTA will generate the second highest welfare outcome, and China-US FTA will generate the third highest welfare outcome. For the US, China-TPP FTA will generate the highest welfare outcome. For the EU, all China involved mega deals have negative impacts except China-US FTA. For Japan, RCEP will generate the highest welfare outcome. For both Korea and India, RCEP will generate the highest welfare outcome.

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  • Chunding Li & Jing Wang & John Whalley, 2014. "Numerical General Equilibrium Analysis of China's Impacts from Possible Mega Trade Deals," NBER Working Papers 20425, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20425
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    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations

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