IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/332391.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What Might be a Desirable FTA Path towards Global Free Trade for Asia-Pacific Countries?

Author

Listed:
  • Lee, Hiro
  • Itakura, Ken

Abstract

In response to the lack of progress and the subsequent suspension of negotiations in the Doha Round, a number of Asia-Pacific countries have accelerated bilateral and regional trade initiatives. While global free trade is the ultimate goal, many countries strive not to be left out of the recent wave of free-trade agreements (FTAs). Indeed, all major Asia-Pacific countries are currently negotiating bilateral and/or regional FTAs. Is there a preferred FTA sequencing that would eventually lead to global free trade? Although there are a number of studies on sequencing of real and monetary integration, studies on desirable sequencing of FTAs are extremely scarce. The objective of this paper is to investigate what might be a desirable path of FTAs for countries in the Asia-Pacific using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. In particular, we shed light on the relationship between sequencing of FTAs and the extent of structural adjustments. The preliminary results suggest that the combination of the Trans-Pacific track sequencing (moving from TPP12 to enlarged TPP and FTAAP) and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) would move the industrial structure within each member country closer to that which would prevail under global free trade, while increasing economic welfare of the member countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Hiro & Itakura, Ken, 2013. "What Might be a Desirable FTA Path towards Global Free Trade for Asia-Pacific Countries?," Conference papers 332391, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332391
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/332391/files/6575.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ianchovichina,Elena & Walmsley,Terrie L. (ed.), 2012. "Dynamic Modeling and Applications for Global Economic Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107002432, November.
    2. Peter J. Lloyd & Donald Maclaren, 2004. "Gains and Losses from Regional Trading Agreements: A Survey," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 80(251), pages 445-467, December.
    3. Innwon Park, 2006. "East Asian Regional Trade Agreements: Do They Promote Global Free Trade?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(4), pages 547-568, December.
    4. Anne O. Krueger, 1999. "Are Preferential Trading Arrangements Trade-Liberalizing or Protectionist?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 105-124, Fall.
    5. Ken Itakura & Hiro Lee, 2012. "Welfare Changes And Sectoral Adjustments Of Asia-Pacific Countries Under Alternative Sequencings Of Free Trade Agreements," Global Journal of Economics (GJE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(02), pages 1-22.
    6. Lee, Hiro & Owen, Robert F. & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2009. "Regional integration in Asia and its effects on the EU and North America," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 240-254, May.
    7. Francois, Joseph & Wignaraja, Ganeshan, 2008. "Economic Implications of Deeper Asian Integration," CEPR Discussion Papers 6976, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Francois Joseph F & Wignaraja Ganeshan, 2008. "Economic Implications of Asian Integration," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-48, September.
    9. Ianchovichina,Elena & Walmsley,Terrie L. (ed.), 2012. "Dynamic Modeling and Applications for Global Economic Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107011694, November.
    10. Andrew B. Bernard, 2004. "Exporting and Productivity in the USA," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 20(3), pages 343-357, Autumn.
    11. Eric W. Bond, 2008. "Adjustment Costs and the Sequencing of Trade Liberalisation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 97-111, January.
    12. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    13. Arvind Panagariya, 2000. "Preferential Trade Liberalization: The Traditional Theory and New Developments," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 287-331, June.
    14. Richard E. Baldwin, 2008. "Sequencing and Depth of Regional Economic Integration: Lessons for the Americas from Europe," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 5-30, January.
    15. Chunding Li & John Whalley, 2012. "China and the TPP: A Numerical Simulation Assessment of the Effects Involved," NBER Working Papers 18090, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Itakura, Ken & Lee, Hiro, 2012. "Welfare and Structural Adjustment Implications of Asian Track and Trans-Pacific Track Sequencings of FTAs," Conference papers 332175, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. Ken Itakura & Hiro Lee, 2012. "Welfare Changes And Sectoral Adjustments Of Asia-Pacific Countries Under Alternative Sequencings Of Free Trade Agreements," Global Journal of Economics (GJE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(02), pages 1-22.
    3. Massetti, Emanuele & Ricci, Elena Claire, 2011. "Super-Grids and Concentrated Solar Power: A Scenario Analysis with the WITCH Model," Conference papers 332112, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    4. Hiro Lee & Ken Itakura, 2014. "TPP, RCEP, and Japan's Agricultural Policy Reforms," OSIPP Discussion Paper 14E003, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    5. Lee, Hiro & Itakura, Ken, 2018. "The welfare and sectoral adjustment effects of mega-regional trade agreements on ASEAN countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 20-32.
    6. Hiro Lee & Ken Itakura, 2015. "Applied General Equilibrium Analysis of Mega-Regional Free Trade Initiatives in the Asia-Pacific," OSIPP Discussion Paper 15E001, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    7. Lee, Hiro & Itakura, Ken, 2015. "Mega-regional free trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific: How do productivity gains, cost mitigations and agricultural policy reforms affect the results?," Conference papers 332589, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    8. Lee, Hiro & Itakura, Ken, 2016. "The Implications of the Trans-Pacific Partnership for Japan: Agricultural Policy Reforms and Productivity Gains," Conference papers 332771, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Van Ha, Pham & Kompas, Tom & Nguyen, Hoa Thi Minh & Long, Chu Hoang, 2017. "Building a better trade model to determine local effects: A regional and intertemporal GTAP model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 102-113.
    10. Hiro Lee & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2007. "Regional Integration, Sectoral Adjustments and Natural Groupings in East Asia," OSIPP Discussion Paper 07E008, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    11. Chunding Li & Jing Wang & John Whalley, 2014. "Numerical General Equilibrium Analysis of China's Impacts from Possible Mega Trade Deals," NBER Working Papers 20425, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Minor, Peter & Walmsley, Terrie & Strutt, Anna, 2018. "State-owned enterprise reform in Vietnam: A dynamic CGE analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 42-57.
    13. Ken Itakura & Hiro Lee, 2023. "Should the United States rejoin the Trans-Pacific trade deal?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 235-255, May.
    14. Itakura, Ken, 2019. "Incorporating Global Value Chains into the Dynamic GTAP Model [tentative results]," Conference papers 333111, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    15. Li Xin, 2014. "A General Equilibrium Analysis of the TPP Free Trade Agreement With and Without China," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 8(2), pages 115-136, May.
    16. Aguiar, Angel & Corong, Erwin & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2020. "The GTAP Recursive Dynamic (GTAP-RD) Model: Version 1.0," Conference papers 333133, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    17. Erwin Corong & Thomas Hertel & Robert McDougall & Marinos Tsigas & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2017. "The Standard GTAP Model, version 7," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 2(1), pages 1-119, June.
    18. Jean Foure & Angel Aguiar & Ruben Bibas & Jean Chateau & Shinichiro Fujimori & Julien Lefevre & Marian Leimbach & Luis Rey-Los-Santos & Hugo Valin, 2020. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Baseline Scenarios in Dynamic CGE models: Review and Guidelines Proposal," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 28-62, June.
    19. Mr. Tubagus Feridhanusetyawan, 2005. "Preferential Trade Agreements in the Asia-Pacific Region," IMF Working Papers 2005/149, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Terrie Walmsley & Peter Minor, 2020. "US Trade Actions Against China: A Supply Chain Perspective," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 55(3), pages 337-371, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332391. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.