IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cii/cepiei/2006-3tc.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Post-Crisis Sequencing of Economic Integration in Asia: Trade as a Complement to a Monetary Future

Author

Listed:
  • Michael G. Plummer
  • Ganeshan Wignaraja

Abstract

Bilateral and regional cooperation initiatives in Asia have been growing in importance over the last five years. These accords span the real and financial sectors; rather than following the more typical pattern of “trade first, money later”, recent policy initiatives involve the simultaneous implementation of trade and monetary/financial accords. Given this sequence, is there a case for monetary union in East Asia? Is there a case for expanded free-trade areas (FTAs) in the region? This paper argues that, at present, the post-sequencing of economic integration in Asia is developing such that trade agreements will ultimately complement the movement toward financial and monetary integration. While the political exigencies associated with monetary union pose serious challenges, it is argued that FTAs should help relax this constraint.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael G. Plummer & Ganeshan Wignaraja, 2006. "The Post-Crisis Sequencing of Economic Integration in Asia: Trade as a Complement to a Monetary Future," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 107, pages 59-85.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2006-3tc
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.cepii.fr/IE/rev107/ei107c.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
    2. Sunghyun Henry Kim & M. Ayhan Kose & Michael G. Plummer, 2003. "Dynamics of Business Cycles in Asia: Differences and Similarities," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 462-477, August.
    3. Ms. Kalpana Kochhar & Mr. Prakash Loungani & Mr. Mark R. Stone, 1998. "The East Asian Crisis: Macroeconomic Developments and Policy Lessons," IMF Working Papers 1998/128, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Hiro Lee & David Roland-Holst & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2004. "China's Emergence and the Implications of Prospective Free Trade Agreements in East Asia," Discussion Paper Series 156, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    5. Ballard, Charles L. & Cheong, Inkyo, 1997. "The effects of economic integration in the Pacific Rim: A computational general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 505-524.
    6. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August.
    7. Miguel-Angel Martín & Agustín Herranz, 2004. "Human capital and economic growth in Spanish regions," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 10(4), pages 257-264, November.
    8. Francois, Joseph F. & McQueen, Matthew & Wignaraja, Ganeshan, 2005. "European Union-developing country FTAs: overview and analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1545-1565, October.
    9. Rana, Pradumna B., 2006. "Economic Integration in East Asia: Trends, Prospects, and a Possible Roadmap," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 2, Asian Development Bank.
    10. Hsiao Chink Tang, 2006. "An Asian Monetary Union?," CAMA Working Papers 2006-13, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    11. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Vance Martin, 2005. "Empirical modelling of contagion: a review of methodologies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 9-24.
    12. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    13. Kawai, Masahiro, 2002. "Exchange Rate Arrangements in East Asia: Lessons from the 1997-98 Currency Crisis," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(S1), pages 167-204, December.
    14. Shujiro Urata & Kozo Kiyota, 2003. "The Impacts of an East Asia FTA on Foreign Trade in East Asia," NBER Working Papers 10173, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Takatoshi Ito & Andrew K. Rose, 2005. "International Trade in East Asia," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_05-1.
    16. Ian Babetskii, 2005. "Trade integration and synchronization of shocks," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 13(1), pages 105-138, January.
    17. Ito, Takatoshi & Rose, Andrew K. (ed.), 2005. "International Trade in East Asia," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226378961, September.
    18. Mohamed Hedi Bchir & Michel Fouquin, 2006. "Economic Integration in Asia: Bilateral Free Trade Agreements Versus Asian Single Market," Working Papers 2006-15, CEPII research center.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:rim:rimwps:12-07 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Ken Itakura & Hiro Lee, 2012. "Welfare Changes And Sectoral Adjustments Of Asia-Pacific Countries Under Alternative Sequencings Of Free Trade Agreements," Global Journal of Economics (GJE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(02), pages 1-22.
    3. Cheong, Inkyo, 2013. "Negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement: Evaluation and Implications for East Asian Regionalism," ADBI Working Papers 428, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    4. Francois Joseph F & Wignaraja Ganeshan, 2008. "Economic Implications of Asian Integration," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-48, September.
    5. Lee, Hiro & Owen, Robert F. & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2009. "Regional integration in Asia and its effects on the EU and North America," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 240-254, May.
    6. Woosik Moon & Yeongseop Rhee, 2012. "Asian Monetary Integration," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14191.
    7. Badri Narayanan & Sachin Kumar Sharma, 2016. "An Analysis of Tariff Reductions in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP): Implications for the Indian Economy," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 10(1), pages 1-34, February.
    8. Richard Pomfret, 2011. "Regional Integration in East Asia," Chapters, in: Miroslav N. Jovanović (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume I, chapter 16, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Richard Pomfret, 2009. "Regionalism in the Asia-Pacific Region: How Wide, How Deep?," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2009-31, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    10. Konon, Alexander, 2012. "Direct and Indirect Crisis Effects on International Trade or: Is There a Chance to Employ an Income Stimulus to Stimulate Exports?," MPRA Paper 36363, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Kawai, Masahiro & Wignaraja, Ganeshan, 2008. "Regionalism as an Engine of Multilateralism: A Case for a Single East Asian FTA," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 14, Asian Development Bank.
    12. Kawai, Masahiro & Zhai, Fan, 2009. "China-Japan-United States integration amid global rebalancing: A computable general equilibrium analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 688-699, November.
    13. Tsung-Chen Lee (Correspondnce author) & Shiao-Wei Lo & Wen-Cheng Lin, 2017. "A Comparison Study on ASEAN-Japan and ASEAN-Korea Free Trade Agreements using CGE Model," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 8, pages 79-95, May.
    14. Dennis J. Snower & Alessio J. G. Brown & Christian Merkl, 2009. "Globalization and the Welfare State: A Review of Hans-Werner Sinn's Can Germany Be Saved?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 136-158, March.
    15. Richard Pomfret & Uwe Kaufmann & Christopher Findlay, 2010. "Are Preferential Tariffs Utilized? Evidence from Australian Imports, 2000-9," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2010-13, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    16. Mohammad Karimi & Marcel‐Cristian Voia, 2019. "Empirics of currency crises: A duration analysis approach," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 428-449, July.
    17. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2010. "The impact of the global financial crisis on business cycles in Asian emerging economies," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 293-303, June.
    18. Mardi Dungey & Rene Fry & Vance L. Martin, 2006. "Correlation, Contagion, and Asian Evidence," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 5(2), pages 32-72, Spring/Su.
    19. Tzu-Han YANG & Deng-Shing HUANG, 2011. "Multinational Corporations, FDI and the East Asian Economic Integration," Discussion papers 11071, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    20. Gumilang, Howard & Mukhopadhyay, Kakali & Thomassin, Paul J., 2011. "Economic and environmental impacts of trade liberalization: The case of Indonesia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1030-1041, May.
    21. Iwona Maciejczyk-Bujnowicz, 2016. "Foreign trade and the theory of optimum currency areas. Implications for Poland," International Economics, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology, issue 13, pages 5-26, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic integration; asian free-trade areas; monetary union; trade policy; regional integration; monetary block; international trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2006-3tc. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepiifr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.