IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/socarx/yjveb_v1.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections

Author

Listed:
  • Dahl, Gordon
  • Lu, Runjing

    (University of Alberta)

  • Mullins, William

    (UC San Diego)

Abstract

Changes in political leadership drive sharp changes in public policy and partisan beliefs about the future. We exploit the surprise 2016 election of Trump to identify the effects of a shift in political power on one of the most consequential household decisions: whether to have a child. Republican-leaning counties experience a sharp and persistent increase in fertility relative to Democratic counties, a shift amounting to 1.2 to 2.2% of the national fertility rate. In addition, Hispanics see fertility fall relative to non-Hispanics, especially compared to rural or evangelical whites.

Suggested Citation

  • Dahl, Gordon & Lu, Runjing & Mullins, William, 2021. "Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections," SocArXiv yjveb_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:yjveb_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/yjveb_v1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/61a81cf84d4ce501f376dd77/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31219/osf.io/yjveb_v1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson & Kaveh Majlesi, 2020. "Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(10), pages 3139-3183, October.
    2. Dettling, Lisa J. & Kearney, Melissa S., 2014. "House prices and birth rates: The impact of the real estate market on the decision to have a baby," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 82-100.
    3. repec:pri:cheawb:adriana_booms.pdf is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Hunt Allcott & Matthew Gentzkow, 2017. "Social Media and Fake News in the 2016 Election," NBER Working Papers 23089, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Elisabeth Kempf & Margarita Tsoutsoura, 2021. "Partisan Professionals: Evidence from Credit Rating Analysts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 2805-2856, December.
    6. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson, 2019. "When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage Market Value of Young Men," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 161-178, September.
    7. Allcott, Hunt & Boxell, Levi & Conway, Jacob & Gentzkow, Matthew & Thaler, Michael & Yang, David, 2020. "Polarization and public health: Partisan differences in social distancing during the coronavirus pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    8. Alma Cohen & Rajeev Dehejia & Dmitri Romanov, 2013. "Financial Incentives and Fertility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 1-20, March.
    9. Melissa S. Kearney & Phillip B. Levine, 2009. "Subsidized Contraception, Fertility, and Sexual Behavior," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(1), pages 137-151, February.
    10. Jess Benhabib & Mark M Spiegel, 2019. "Sentiments and Economic Activity: Evidence from US States," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(618), pages 715-733.
    11. Benjamin Enke, 2020. "Moral Values and Voting," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(10), pages 3679-3729.
    12. J Anthony Cookson & Joseph E Engelberg & William Mullins & Hui Chen, 0. "Does Partisanship Shape Investor Beliefs? Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 863-893.
    13. Kasey Buckles & Daniel Hungerman & Steven Lugauer, 2021. "Is Fertility a Leading Economic Indicator?," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(634), pages 541-565.
    14. Levi Boxell & Matthew Gentzkow & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2024. "Cross-Country Trends in Affective Polarization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 557-565, March.
    15. Julie Berry Cullen & Nicholas Turner & Ebonya Washington, 2021. "Political Alignment, Attitudes toward Government, and Tax Evasion," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 135-166, August.
    16. Gerber, Alan S. & Huber, Gregory A., 2009. "Partisanship and Economic Behavior: Do Partisan Differences in Economic Forecasts Predict Real Economic Behavior?," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 103(3), pages 407-426, August.
    17. Hungerman, Daniel & Rinz, Kevin & Weninger, Tim & Yoon, Chungeun, 2018. "Political campaigns and church contributions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 403-426.
    18. Ashley Langer & Derek Lemoine, 2020. "What Were the Odds? Estimating the Market's Probability of Uncertain Events," NBER Working Papers 28265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Kasey Buckles & Melanie E. Guldi & Lucie Schmidt, 2019. "Fertility Trends in the United States, 1980-2017: The Role of Unintended Births," Department of Economics Working Papers 2019-20, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    20. Michael F. Lovenheim & Kevin J. Mumford, 2013. "Do Family Wealth Shocks Affect Fertility Choices? Evidence from the Housing Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 464-475, May.
    21. Jessamyn Schaller, 2016. "Booms, Busts, and Fertility: Testing the Becker Model Using Gender-Specific Labor Demand," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 51(1), pages 1-29.
    22. Jacob R. Brown & Ryan D. Enos, 2021. "The measurement of partisan sorting for 180 million voters," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(8), pages 998-1008, August.
    23. Hunt Allcott & Matthew Gentzkow, 2017. "Social Media and Fake News in the 2016 Election," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 211-236, Spring.
    24. Charles I. Jones, 2022. "The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(11), pages 3489-3527, November.
    25. Justin McCrary & Heather Royer, 2011. "The Effect of Female Education on Fertility and Infant Health: Evidence from School Entry Policies Using Exact Date of Birth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 158-195, February.
    26. Rajeev Dehejia & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2004. "Booms, Busts, and Babies' Health," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(3), pages 1091-1130.
    27. Jason M. Lindo, 2010. "Are Children Really Inferior Goods? Evidence from Displacement-Driven Income Shocks," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(2).
    28. repec:pri:cheawb:adriana_booms is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Christian Gillitzer & Nalini Prasad, 2018. "The Effect of Consumer Sentiment on Consumption: Cross-Sectional Evidence from Elections," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 234-269, October.
    30. Kevin Milligan, 2005. "Subsidizing the Stork: New Evidence on Tax Incentives and Fertility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 539-555, August.
    31. Raute, Anna, 2019. "Can financial incentives reduce the baby gap? Evidence from a reform in maternity leave benefits," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 203-222.
    32. McGrath, Mary C., 2017. "Economic Behavior and the Partisan Perceptual Screen," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 11(4), pages 363-383, February.
    33. Kasey Buckles & Melanie E. Guldi & Lucie Schmidt, 2019. "Fertility Trends in the United States, 1980-2017: The Role of Unintended Births," Department of Economics Working Papers 2019-20, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gordon B. Dahl & Runjing Lu & William Mullins, 2022. "Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 473-490, December.
    2. Luis Guirola & Blanca Zapater & Libertad González, 2023. "Partisan Abortions," Working Papers 1385, Barcelona School of Economics.
    3. Engelberg, Joseph E. & Guzman, Jorge & Lu, Runjing & Mullins, William, 2021. "Partisan Entrepreneurship," SocArXiv qhs6j, Center for Open Science.
    4. Engelberg, Joseph E. & Guzman, Jorge & Lu, Runjing & Mullins, William, 2021. "Partisan Entrepreneurship," SocArXiv qhs6j_v1, Center for Open Science.
    5. Fergus Cumming & Lisa Dettling, 2024. "Monetary Policy and Birth Rates: The Effect of Mortgage Rate Pass-Through on Fertility," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(1), pages 229-258.
    6. Liepmann, Hannah, 2018. "The impact of a negative labor demand shock on fertility – Evidence from the fall of the Berlin Wall," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 210-224.
    7. Maarten Meeuwis & Jonathan A. Parker & Antoinette Schoar & Duncan Simester, 2022. "Belief Disagreement and Portfolio Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3191-3247, December.
    8. Ambrocio, Gene & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2022. "Belief polarization and Covid-19," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2022, Bank of Finland.
    9. Guirola, Luis, 2025. "Economic expectations under the shadow of party polarization: Evidence from 135 government changes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    10. Osea Giuntella & Lorenzo Rotunno & Luca Stella, 2021. "Trade Shocks, Fertility, and Marital Behavior," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1126, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    11. Libertad González & Sofia Karina Trommlerová, 2023. "Cash Transfers and Fertility: How the Introduction and Cancellation of a Child Benefit Affected Births and Abortions," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 58(3), pages 783-818.
    12. Jason M. Lindo & Krishna Regmi & Isaac Swensen, 2020. "Stable Income, Stable Family," NBER Working Papers 27753, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou, 2022. "The Political Economy of Populism," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(3), pages 753-832, September.
    14. Liu, Jing & Xing, Chunbing & Zhang, Qiong, 2020. "House price, fertility rates and reproductive intentions," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    15. Daysal, N. Meltem & Lovenheim, Michael & Siersbæk, Nikolaj & Wasser, David N., 2021. "Home prices, fertility, and early-life health outcomes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    16. Martha J. Bailey & Lea Bart & Vanessa Wanner Lang, 2022. "The Missing Baby Bust: The Consequences of the COVID-19 Pandemic for Contraceptive Use, Pregnancy, and Childbirth Among Low-Income Women," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 41(4), pages 1549-1569, August.
    17. Doepke, Matthias & Hannusch, Anne & Kindermann, Fabian & Tertilt, Michèle, 2022. "The Economics of Fertility: A New Era," IZA Discussion Papers 15224, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Kristiina Huttunen & Jenni Kellokumpu, 2016. "The Effect of Job Displacement on Couples' Fertility Decisions," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(2), pages 403-442.
    19. Maria De Paola & Roberto Nisticò & Vincenzo Scoppa, 2024. "Workplace Peer Effects in Fertility Decisions," CSEF Working Papers 714, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    20. Osea Giuntella & Lorenzo Rotunno & Luca Stella, 2022. "Globalization, Fertility and Marital Behavior in a Lowest-Low Fertility Setting," CESifo Working Paper Series 9755, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:yjveb_v1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arabixiv.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.