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Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections

Author

Listed:
  • Dahl, Gordon
  • Lu, Runjing

    (University of Alberta)

  • Mullins, William

    (UC San Diego)

Abstract

Changes in political leadership drive sharp changes in public policy and partisan beliefs about the future. We exploit the surprise 2016 election of Trump to identify the effects of a shift in political power on one of the most consequential household decisions: whether to have a child. Republican-leaning counties experience a sharp and persistent increase in fertility relative to Democratic counties, a shift amounting to 1.2 to 2.2% of the national fertility rate. In addition, Hispanics see fertility fall relative to non-Hispanics, especially compared to rural or evangelical whites.

Suggested Citation

  • Dahl, Gordon & Lu, Runjing & Mullins, William, 2021. "Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections," SocArXiv yjveb_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:yjveb_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/yjveb_v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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