IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/socarx/yjveb.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections

Author

Listed:
  • Dahl, Gordon
  • Lu, Runjing

    (University of Alberta)

  • Mullins, William

    (UC San Diego)

Abstract

Changes in political leadership drive sharp changes in public policy and partisan beliefs about the future. We exploit the surprise 2016 election of Trump to identify the effects of a shift in political power on one of the most consequential household decisions: whether to have a child. Republican-leaning counties experience a sharp and persistent increase in fertility relative to Democratic counties, a shift amounting to 1.2 to 2.2% of the national fertility rate. In addition, Hispanics see fertility fall relative to non-Hispanics, especially compared to rural or evangelical whites.

Suggested Citation

  • Dahl, Gordon & Lu, Runjing & Mullins, William, 2021. "Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections," SocArXiv yjveb, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:yjveb
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/yjveb
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/61a81cf84d4ce501f376dd77/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31219/osf.io/yjveb?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hungerman, Daniel & Rinz, Kevin & Weninger, Tim & Yoon, Chungeun, 2018. "Political campaigns and church contributions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 403-426.
    2. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson & Kaveh Majlesi, 2020. "Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(10), pages 3139-3183, October.
    3. Dettling, Lisa J. & Kearney, Melissa S., 2014. "House prices and birth rates: The impact of the real estate market on the decision to have a baby," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 82-100.
    4. Allcott, Hunt & Boxell, Levi & Conway, Jacob & Gentzkow, Matthew & Thaler, Michael & Yang, David, 2020. "Polarization and public health: Partisan differences in social distancing during the coronavirus pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    5. Justin McCrary & Heather Royer, 2011. "The Effect of Female Education on Fertility and Infant Health: Evidence from School Entry Policies Using Exact Date of Birth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 158-195, February.
    6. Raute, Anna, 2019. "Can financial incentives reduce the baby gap? Evidence from a reform in maternity leave benefits," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 203-222.
    7. Julie Berry Cullen & Nicholas Turner & Ebonya Washington, 2021. "Political Alignment, Attitudes toward Government, and Tax Evasion," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 135-166, August.
    8. Ashley Langer & Derek Lemoine, 2020. "What Were the Odds? Estimating the Market's Probability of Uncertain Events," NBER Working Papers 28265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. McGrath, Mary C., 2017. "Economic Behavior and the Partisan Perceptual Screen," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 11(4), pages 363-383, February.
    10. Michael F. Lovenheim & Kevin J. Mumford, 2013. "Do Family Wealth Shocks Affect Fertility Choices? Evidence from the Housing Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 464-475, May.
    11. Kaplan, Ethan & Spenkuch, Jörg L. & Sullivan, Rebecca, 2022. "Partisan spatial sorting in the United States: A theoretical and empirical overview," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    12. M. Keith Chen & Yilin Zhuo & Malena de la Fuente & Ryne Rohla & Elisa F. Long, 2020. "Causal Estimation of Stay-at-Home Orders on SARS-CoV-2 Transmission," Papers 2005.05469, arXiv.org.
    13. Elisabeth Kempf & Margarita Tsoutsoura, 2021. "Partisan Professionals: Evidence from Credit Rating Analysts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 2805-2856, December.
    14. J Anthony Cookson & Joseph E Engelberg & William Mullins & Hui Chen, 0. "Does Partisanship Shape Investor Beliefs? Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 863-893.
    15. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson, 2019. "When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage Market Value of Young Men," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 161-178, September.
    16. Benjamin Enke, 2020. "Moral Values and Voting," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(10), pages 3679-3729.
    17. Sun, Liyang & Abraham, Sarah, 2021. "Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 175-199.
    18. Jacob R. Brown & Ryan D. Enos, 2021. "The measurement of partisan sorting for 180 million voters," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(8), pages 998-1008, August.
    19. Alma Cohen & Rajeev Dehejia & Dmitri Romanov, 2013. "Financial Incentives and Fertility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 1-20, March.
    20. Melissa S. Kearney & Phillip B. Levine, 2009. "Subsidized Contraception, Fertility, and Sexual Behavior," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(1), pages 137-151, February.
    21. Anna Aizer & Shari Eli & Adriana Lleras-Muney, 2020. "The Incentive Effects of Cash Transfers to the Poor," NBER Working Papers 27523, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Jess Benhabib & Mark M Spiegel, 2019. "Sentiments and Economic Activity: Evidence from US States," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(618), pages 715-733.
    23. Jason M. Lindo, 2010. "Are Children Really Inferior Goods? Evidence from Displacement-Driven Income Shocks," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(2).
    24. Kasey Buckles & Daniel Hungerman & Steven Lugauer, 2021. "Is Fertility a Leading Economic Indicator?," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(634), pages 541-565.
    25. Levi Boxell & Matthew Gentzkow & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2024. "Cross-Country Trends in Affective Polarization," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 557-565, March.
    26. Marianne Bertrand & Emir Kamenica, 2023. "Coming Apart? Cultural Distances in the United States over Time," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 100-141, October.
    27. Kevin Milligan, 2005. "Subsidizing the Stork: New Evidence on Tax Incentives and Fertility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 539-555, August.
    28. Gary S. Becker, 1960. "An Economic Analysis of Fertility," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 209-240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Charles I. Jones, 2022. "The End of Economic Growth? Unintended Consequences of a Declining Population," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(11), pages 3489-3527, November.
    30. Christian Gillitzer & Nalini Prasad, 2018. "The Effect of Consumer Sentiment on Consumption: Cross-Sectional Evidence from Elections," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 234-269, October.
    31. Gerber, Alan S. & Huber, Gregory A., 2009. "Partisanship and Economic Behavior: Do Partisan Differences in Economic Forecasts Predict Real Economic Behavior?," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 103(3), pages 407-426, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dagostino, Ramona & Gao, Janet & Ma, Pengfei, 2023. "Partisanship in loan pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(3).
    2. Bhalotra, Sonia & Clots-Figueras, Irma & Iyer, Lakshmi, 2021. "Religion and abortion: The role of politician identity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    3. Adam Ka-Lok Cheung & Lake Lui, 2024. "The Personal is Political: Political Attitudes, Affective Polarization and Fertility Preferences in Hong Kong," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(2), pages 1-23, April.
    4. Bonaparte, Yosef & Khalaf, Sarah & Korniotis, George M., 2023. "Financial decisions of minorities post-2008," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Engelberg, Joseph E. & Guzman, Jorge & Lu, Runjing & Mullins, William, 2021. "Partisan Entrepreneurship," SocArXiv qhs6j, Center for Open Science.
    2. Fergus Cumming & Lisa Dettling, 2024. "Monetary Policy and Birth Rates: The Effect of Mortgage Rate Pass-Through on Fertility," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(1), pages 229-258.
    3. Libertad González & Luis Guirola & Blanca Zapater, 2023. "Partisan Abortions," Working Papers 1385, Barcelona School of Economics.
    4. Libertad González & Sofia Karina Trommlerová, 2023. "Cash Transfers and Fertility: How the Introduction and Cancellation of a Child Benefit Affected Births and Abortions," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 58(3), pages 783-818.
    5. González, Libertad & Trommlerová, Sofia, 2022. "Cash transfers before pregnancy and infant health," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    6. Liu, Jing & Xing, Chunbing & Zhang, Qiong, 2020. "House price, fertility rates and reproductive intentions," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    7. Ambrocio, Gene & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2022. "Belief polarization and Covid-19," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2022, Bank of Finland.
    8. Maarten Meeuwis & Jonathan A. Parker & Antoinette Schoar & Duncan Simester, 2022. "Belief Disagreement and Portfolio Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3191-3247, December.
    9. Kristiina Huttunen & Jenni Kellokumpu, 2016. "The Effect of Job Displacement on Couples' Fertility Decisions," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(2), pages 403-442.
    10. Osea Giuntella & Lorenzo Rotunno & Luca Stella, 2021. "Trade Shocks, Fertility, and Marital Behavior," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def100, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    11. Brehm, Margaret E. & Brehm, Paul A., 2022. "Drill, baby, drill: Natural resource shocks and fertility in Indonesia," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    12. Melissa S. Kearney & Riley Wilson, 2018. "Male Earnings, Marriageable Men, and Nonmarital Fertility: Evidence from the Fracking Boom," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 678-690, October.
    13. Meng, Lina & Peng, Lu & Zhou, Yinggang, 2023. "Do housing booms reduce fertility intentions? Evidence from the new two-child policy in China," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    14. Maria De Paola & Roberto Nisticò & Vincenzo Scoppa, 2024. "Workplace Peer Effects in Fertility Decisions," CSEF Working Papers 714, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    15. Fos, Vyacheslav & Kempf, Elisabeth & Tsoutsoura, Margarita, 2021. "The Political Polarization of Corporate America," Working Papers 313, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    16. Wookun Kim, 2020. "Baby Bonus, Fertility, and Missing Women," Departmental Working Papers 2011, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
    17. Arntz, Melanie & Gathmann, Christina, 2014. "Permanent Changes in the Wage Structure and the East German Fertility Crisis," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100464, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Liepmann, Hannah, 2018. "The impact of a negative labor demand shock on fertility – Evidence from the fall of the Berlin Wall," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 210-224.
    19. Malte Sandner & Frederik Wiynck, 2023. "The Fertility Response to Cutting Child-Related Welfare Benefits," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(2), pages 1-29, April.
    20. Elisabeth Kempf & Margarita Tsoutsoura, 2021. "Partisan Professionals: Evidence from Credit Rating Analysts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 2805-2856, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:yjveb. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arabixiv.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.