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What Were the Odds? Estimating the Market's Probability of Uncertain Events

Author

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  • Ashley Langer
  • Derek Lemoine

Abstract

An event study generates only a lower bound on the full effect of an event unless researchers know the probability that investors assigned to the event before it occurred. We develop two model-free methods for recovering the market’s priced-in probability of events. These methods require running event studies in financial options to complement the standard event study in stock prices. Validating both approaches, we estimate that the 2016 U.S. election outcome had a 12% chance of occurring. This probability is consistent with contemporary polling, bookmaker, and prediction market estimates. Demonstrating the usefulness of our approaches, we show that many OPEC meetings’ outcomes were well-anticipated. OPEC retained substantial influence on world oil prices even as the U.S. increased oil production.

Suggested Citation

  • Ashley Langer & Derek Lemoine, 2020. "What Were the Odds? Estimating the Market's Probability of Uncertain Events," NBER Working Papers 28265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28265
    Note: AP EEE
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    Cited by:

    1. Gordon B. Dahl & Runjing Lu & William Mullins, 2022. "Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 473-490, December.
    2. Lorraine Eden & Stewart R. Miller & Sarfraz Khan & Robert J. Weiner & Dan Li, 2022. "The event study in international business research: Opportunities, challenges, and practical solutions," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 53(5), pages 803-817, July.
    3. Dragan Ilić & Janick Christian Mollet, 2022. "Voluntary corporate climate initiatives and regulatory threat," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 157-184, February.
    4. Gaurab Aryal & Federico Ciliberto & Leland E. Farmer & Ekaterina Khmelnitskaya, 2022. "Valuing Pharmaceutical Drug Innovations," Papers 2212.07384, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2024.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • L71 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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