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Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections

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  • Dahl, Gordon
  • Lu, Runjing
  • Mullins, William

Abstract

Changes in political leadership drive sharp changes in public policy and partisan beliefs about the future. We exploit the surprise 2016 election of Trump to identify the effects of a shift in political power on one of the most consequential household decisions: whether to have a child. Republican-leaning counties experience a sharp and persistent increase in fertility relative to Democratic counties, a shift amounting to 1.2 to 2.2% of the national fertility rate. In addition, Hispanics see fertility fall relative to non-Hispanics, especially compared to rural or evangelical whites.

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  • Dahl, Gordon & Lu, Runjing & Mullins, William, 2021. "Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections," CEPR Discussion Papers 16821, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16821
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    Cited by:

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    3. Adam Ka-Lok Cheung & Lake Lui, 2024. "The Personal is Political: Political Attitudes, Affective Polarization and Fertility Preferences in Hong Kong," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 43(2), pages 1-23, April.
    4. Bonaparte, Yosef & Khalaf, Sarah & Korniotis, George M., 2023. "Financial decisions of minorities post-2008," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility; Partisanship; Elections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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