IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/23899.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Sentiments and Economic Activity: Evidence from U.S. States

Author

Listed:
  • Jess Benhabib
  • Mark M. Spiegel

Abstract

We examine whether sentiment influences aggregate demand by studying the relationship between the Michigan Survey expectations concerning national output growth and future economic activity at the state level. We instrument for local sentiments with political outcomes, positing that agents in states with a higher share of congressmen from the political party of the sitting President will be more optimistic. This instrument is strong in the first stage, and our results confirm a positive relationship between sentiments and future state economic activity that is robust to a battery of sensitivity tests.

Suggested Citation

  • Jess Benhabib & Mark M. Spiegel, 2017. "Sentiments and Economic Activity: Evidence from U.S. States," NBER Working Papers 23899, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23899
    Note: EFG
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w23899.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Benhabib Jess & Perli Roberto, 1994. "Uniqueness and Indeterminacy: On the Dynamics of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 113-142, June.
    2. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
    3. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 40-69, January.
    4. Greg Kaplan & Guido Menzio, 2016. "Shopping Externalities and Self-Fulfilling Unemployment Fluctuations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(3), pages 771-825.
    5. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Nasim Khoshkhou, 2015. "Government Economic Policy, Sentiments, and Consumption," NBER Working Papers 21316, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Daniel Hoechle, 2007. "Robust standard errors for panel regressions with cross-sectional dependence," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 7(3), pages 281-312, September.
    7. Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 29-50, Spring.
    8. Gerber, Alan S. & Huber, Gregory A., 2009. "Partisanship and Economic Behavior: Do Partisan Differences in Economic Forecasts Predict Real Economic Behavior?," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 103(3), pages 407-426, August.
    9. Robert B. Barsky & Eric R. Sims, 2012. "Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1343-1377, June.
    10. Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1999. "Indeterminacy and sunspots in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 387-448, Elsevier.
    11. Greg Kaplan & Guido Menzio, 2016. "Shopping Externalities and Self-Fulfilling Unemployment Fluctuations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(3), pages 771-825.
    12. George A. Akerlof & Robert J. Shiller, 2010. "Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9163.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2022. "How Important Are Consumer Confidence Shocks for the Propagation of Business Cycles in Bulgaria?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 63(10-12), pages 589-603.
    2. Gric, Zuzana & Ehrenbergerova, Dominika & Hodula, Martin, 2022. "The power of sentiment: Irrational beliefs of households and consumer loan dynamics," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    3. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Shao, Peng & Zhang, Shuwei, 2023. "Policy coordination and the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    4. Christian Gillitzer & Nalini Prasad, 2016. "The Effect of Consumer Sentiment on Consumption," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2016-10, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    5. Hector H. Sandoval & Anita N. Walsh, 2024. "Sentiments and spending intentions: Evidence from Florida," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(3), pages 1046-1073, July.
    6. Sniekers, F.J.T., 2013. "Endogenous Beveridge cycles and the volatility of unemployment," CeNDEF Working Papers 13-12, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    7. repec:fip:fedhep:y:2013:i:qi:p:14-29:n:vol.37no.1 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Erik Kole & Liesbeth Noordegraaf-Eelens & Bas Vringer, 2019. "Cognitive Biases and Consumer Sentiment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-031/I, Tinbergen Institute, revised 21 Mar 2023.
    9. Debes, Sebastian & Gareis, Johannes & Mayer, Eric & Rüth, Sebastian, 2014. "Towards a consumer sentiment channel of monetary policy," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 91, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
    10. Laura Nowzohour & Livio Stracca, 2020. "More Than A Feeling: Confidence, Uncertainty, And Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 691-726, September.
    11. Öztürk, B. & Stokman, A.C.J., 2019. "Animal spirits and household spending in Europe and the US," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    12. Andresa Lagerborg & Evi Pappa & Morten O Ravn, 2023. "Sentimental Business Cycles," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(3), pages 1358-1393.
    13. Delis, Manthos D. & Kouretas, Georgios P. & Tsoumas, Chris, 2014. "Anxious periods and bank lending," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 1-13.
    14. Stockman, David R., 2009. "Chaos and sector-specific externalities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2030-2046, December.
    15. Öztürk, B. & Stokman, A.C.J., 2019. "Animal spirits and household spending in Europe and the US," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    16. Angeletos, G.-M. & Lian, C., 2016. "Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1065-1240, Elsevier.
    17. Stéphane Dees, 2017. "The role of confidence shocks in business cycles and their global dimension," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 151, pages 48-65.
    18. Marie‐Helene Gagnon & Celine Gimet, 2020. "Unconventional economic policies and sentiment: An international assessment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(6), pages 1544-1591, June.
    19. S. Heravi & J. Easaw & R. Golinelli, 2016. "Generalized State-Dependent Models: A Multivariate Approach," Working Papers wp1067, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    20. Gene Ambrocio, 2022. "Euro-area business confidence and COVID-19," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(43), pages 4915-4929, September.
    21. Gene Ambrocio, 2022. "Euro-area business confidence and COVID-19," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(43), pages 4915-4929, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23899. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.