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Free-Riding for Future: Field Experimental Evidence of Strategic Substitutability in Climate Protest

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  • Jarke-Neuert, Johannes
  • Perino, Grischa
  • Schwickert, Henrike

Abstract

We test the hypothesis that protest participation decisions in an adult population of potential climate protesters are interdependent. Subjects (n=1,510) from the four largest German cities were recruited two weeks before protest date. We measured participation (ex post) and beliefs about the other subjects' participation (ex ante) in an online survey, used a randomized informational intervention to induce exogenous variance in beliefs, and estimated the causal effect of a change in belief on the probability of participation using a control function approach. Participation decisions are found to be strategic substitutes: a one percentage-point increase of belief causes a .67 percentage-point decrease in the probability of participation in the average subject.

Suggested Citation

  • Jarke-Neuert, Johannes & Perino, Grischa & Schwickert, Henrike, 2021. "Free-Riding for Future: Field Experimental Evidence of Strategic Substitutability in Climate Protest," SocArXiv sh6dm_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:sh6dm_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/sh6dm_v1
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